The study “Energy [R]evolution: a Sustainable Belarus Energy Outlook” was carried out in 2016 – 2018 with the support of the Heinrich Boell Foundation and in collaboration with civil society organisations, scientists and independent experts in Belarus. Energy The report presents modelling results of the scenario on the transition of Belarus to the energy system with a high share of renewable energy and briefly describes policy decisions and technologies that can be used today to implement the Energy [R]evolution scenario. [R]evolution A SUSTAINABLE BELARUS ENERGY OUTLOOK Photo: ©flickr.com — Kate Ausburn Energy [R]evolution A SUSTAINABLE BELARUS ENERGY OUTLOOK Authors: Dr. Sonja Simon, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics, Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment (scenarios modelling, chapters 5, 6) Ivan Filiutsich, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus (data collection and verification) Nastassia Bekish, partnership of environmental organisations “Green Network” (chapters 1.1, 4.1, 4,2) Pavel Harbunou, NGO “Minsk Cycling Community” (chapters 1.2, 4.3, 6.7) Translation to English: Timofey Chuprun Edited by: Yuliia Oharenko Design and layout: Vlad Voitsekhovski and Igor Korzun Energy [R]evolution: a Sustainable Belarus Energy Outlook/ S. Simon, I. Filiutsich, N. Bekish, P. Harbunou; edited by Y. Oharenko// Heinrich Boell Foundation. – Kyiv: Publishing house “Art Book” Ltd., 2018. – 120 p. The study “Energy [R]evolution: a Sustainable Belarus Energy Outlook” was carried out in 2016 – 2018 with the support of the Heinrich Boell Foundation and in collaboration with civil society organisations, scientists and independent experts in Belarus. The report presents modelling results of the scenario on the transition of Belarus to the energy system with a high share of renewable energy and briefly describes policy decisions and technologies that can be used today to implement the Energy [R]evolution scenario. ISBN 978-617-7242-54-2 ©Heinrich Boell Foundation, 2018 Foreword Rapid climate change and negative environmental and Belarus has already taken certain steps to stimulate economic consequences due to consumption of tradi- the development of the renewable energy sector and tional energy sources pose the question on the urgent the implementation of energy efficiency measures. At need for changes in the global energy system. Transi- the same time, the growth potential of the renewable tion to renewable energy sources is an effective solu- energy sector in Belarus remains huge. Modelling re- tion that can stabilise greenhouse gas emissions and sults on the transition of Belarus to renewable energy provide additional impetus to economic growth. In ad- sources presented in this report demonstrate complete dition, such a transition ensures energy independence feasibility of an alternative energy scenario based on for countries and regions. Considering a steady decline sustainable development principles. We are confident in solar, wind and other renewable technologies costs that this publication will be useful to a wide range of in recent years, it is not surprising that global trends stakeholders. indicate a continuous increase in the share of renew- able energy sources. Sergej Sumlenny, Heinrich Boell Foundation Dear readers, we, representatives of Belarusian environmental or- Read this publication not as a theoretical report, but ganisations, not only believe but also are convinced as instructions for assembling the future. While read- that the transition to renewable energy sources is ab- ing, start acting. solutely realistic. This report presents a transition sce- It is important to understand: the transition to renew- nario, which can be implemented started from today. able energy is a process that requires the will of pol- Imagine our future where we will have clean air in cit- icy-makers. We, civil society organisations, are ready ies, streets will be illuminated with solar energy, and to become reliable partners. This publication is our transport will no longer need gasoline. sincere and responsible contribution to the common cause. All that needs to be done is to abandon old stereo- typical thinking and recognise that new technologies We are pleased to present to your attention the report should not be ignored. By refusing renewable energy “Energy [R]evolution: a Sustainable Belarus Energy transition, we shift the responsibility for solving cur- Outlook”. rent problems to future generations. A belief that “it Enjoy the reading and design the future. is enough (resources) for our century” can deprive our children of the possibility of equal development with NGO “Ecohome”, their peers in our western country neighbours, not to partnership of environmental organisations mention enjoying the nature that we have. “Green Network” Acknowledgments Heinrich Boell Foundation and authors of the report express their sincere gratitude to the organisations and experts who participated in the research project, provided consulting support, took part in discussions, assisted in data collection and verification, in particular: Nadiia Shevchenko, Jan Haverkampf and other colleagues of Greenpeace Alexander Grebenkov, International, Sergey Nikitin, colleagues of the Center for Environmental Solutions, Andrei Egorov, representatives of the Belarusian National Platform of the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum. Anna Baranovskaya, Executive summary An increasingly large number of civil society play- indicate the efforts and actions required to achieve ers, scientists, and governments worldwide view the ambitious objectives and to illustrate the options we transition from a current fossil fuel and nuclear-based have at hand to change our energy supply system energy system to a system primarily based on renew- into one that is more sustainable. At the same time, able energy sources as an ultimate solution to global scenarios may serve as a consistent basis for further climate change problem as well as local air pollution analyses of possible ways and concepts to implement and energy security challenges. pathways to an energy transition. Key results of mod- elling Reference and Energy [R]evolution scenarios Though it is not easy to shake conventional thinking for Belarus are presented below. about underpinning principles of the energy system, scenarios is a necessary tool to describe possible de- Key results velopment paths and give decision-makers an under- standing on how far they can shape the future energy system. Projections on population development, GDP growth, and energy intensity determine future development Inspired by the Greenpeace’s Energy [R]evolution se- pathways for Belarus’s final energy demand. Under the ries developed for a range of countries, Heinrich Boell Reference scenario, total final energy demand increases Foundation initiated a similar study for Belarus. This by 42% from the current 710 PJ/a to 1010 PJ/a in 2050. is the first time such an ambitious scenario was de- In the Energy [R]evolution scenario, efficiency measures veloped for Belarus in close consultation with scien- decrease final energy demand by 24% compared to tists, experts and civil society organisations working current consumption to 540 PJ/a by 2050. in the field of energy and transport policy. Modelling work was carried out by the German Aerospace Cen- Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, due to economic ter (DLR), Department of Systems Analysis and Tech- growth, increasing living standards and electrification of nology Assessment at the Institute of Engineering the transport and heat sectors, overall electricity demand Thermodynamics, while input data and results were is expected to increase despite efficiency gains in all reviewed by local experts. sectors. Total electricity demand will rise from about 30 TWh/a to 61 TWh/a by 2050 in the Energy [R]evolution Two scenarios are considered as alternative pathways scenario. Compared to the Reference scenario, efficiency for an energy system of Belarus in order to illustrate measures in the industry, residential and service sectors its potential and evaluate boundaries, in particular: avoid the generation of about 20 TWh/a. • a Reference scenario, reflecting a continuation of Efficiency gains in the heating sector are even larger than current trends and policies and in the electricity sector. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, consumption equivalent to about 300 PJ/a is • the Energy [R]evolution scenario, designed to avoided through efficiency gains by 2050 compared to achieve a set of environmental policy targets re- the Reference scenario. sulting in an optimistic but still feasible pathway towards a widely decarbonized energy system until The development of the electricity supply sector is 2050 in close relation to basic framework assump- characterised by a dynamically growing wind and PV tions of the Reference scenario. market, which more than compensate for the limited development of nuclear power in the Energy [R]evolution In general, the Energy [R]evolution scenario by no scenario. By 2050, 92% of the electricity produced in means claims to predict the future; it simply describes Belarus will come from renewable energy sources in and compares potential development pathways out the Energy [R]evolution scenario. The installed capacity of the broad range of possible ‘futures’. The concept of renewables will reach about 9 GW in 2030 and 50 GW of the Energy [R]evolution scenario is designed to by 2050. 4 The Energy [R]evolution