SOMALIA Rain Watch June 5, 2012 FEWS NET will publish a Rain Watch for Somalia every dekad through the end of the current gu (April-June) rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Gu rains to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Rain Watch is valid through June 10, 2012 and is produced in collaboration with USGS, the Food Security and nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, a number of other agencies, and several Somali NGOs. Gu rains subside in key agropastoral zones of the south. The 2011 Gu rains have subsided in many parts of the county. Light to moderate rains of up to 25 millimeters (mm) were received in parts of the North and in the southern regions during the last ten days of May (Figure 1). However, contrary to satellite rainfall estimates, most of the central and southern regions received only light showers or experienced dry spell. Field reports indicate localized moderate precipitation in many parts of the Northwest including Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Toghder, Sool, and Sanag regions which further improved the pasture and water conditions and crop establishment. Most of the Guban Pastoral livelihood zone experienced hot and dry period which continued to dry up the regenerated pasture, while areas of Lughaya and Berbera districts have received little or no rains during this season. In the Northeast, in parts of the Sool Plateau in Qardho district, in the Karkaar-Dharor Pastoral livelihood zone in Iskushuban district, and in the Coastal Deeh of Bendar Beyla district received moderate rain which resulted in near average pasture and water condition. In addition, localized light rainfall occurred over patches in East Golis livelihood zone. Of particular concern are the Karkaar- Dharor Pastoral livelihood zone in Bossaso and Qardho districts and the Coastal Deeh of Iskushuban and Alula districts where pasture and water conditions are relatively poor. Most central regions of Galgadud and Mudug remained dry. However, most areas of the cowpea belt, the Hawd, and parts of Addun Pastoral livelihood zone have average pasture and water conditions. Ground reports indicate poor pasture and browse conditions in the Coastal Deeh, the cowpea belt of Harardere district and most parts of the Addun Pastoral livelihood zone in Hobyo district. In Hiran, there was significant reduction of rainfall in the different livelihood zones during this period. Nevertheless, parts of the pastoral zones received moderate rains while light to moderate rains were received in pockets of the agropastoral and riverine zones. For example, rain gauge stations in Buloburte and Jalalqsi towns indicate 14 mm and 64 mm with one and four rainy days, respectively. Rains have further replenished the natural water catchments and berkads and have positively impacted crops and pasture and browse conditions in the rainfed areas. In the South, most of the livelihoods zones received little or no rain. Medium amount of rain did fall in pockets including Bardera and parts of Lugh and Garbaharey district of Gedo region. In the Juba Valley, Afmadow, Hagar, and Badade districts received light rains. In the Shabelle Valley, Jowhar district received moderate rain. In Bay, pockets of Baidoa, Bur-Hakaba, and Dinsor districts received moderate rainfall. Rain gauge readings from Dinsor and Baidoa stations indicate 19 mm and 14.5 mm with one and two rainy days, respectively. Cricket damage to crops continues to be reported in all agropastoral, high-potential areas of Bay region. In Bakol, parts of Lower Shabelle, and Middle Juba, rainfed germinated crops are showing moisture stress due to the long dry spell that started in early May. However, pasture and water conditions are average in all pastoral livelihood zones of the South. The coastal areas of the Shabelle and Juba Valleys, as well as parts of Bay, are expected to receive Hagaa rains from July to September which could reverse the moisture deficits in these areas. The overall impact of the current seasonal rains on vegetations condition are good in most key pastoral areas. However, they are below average compared to the ten year (2001-2010) average in most parts of the country, reflecting their poor intensity and cumulative totals (Figure 3). The seven‐day weather forecast, valid through June 11, indicates moderate rains of up to 20 mm in coastal regions of the Juba and Shabelle Valleys and most of Bay as well as pockets of northern regions. Most of the central regions, Gedo, and Bakol are likely to be dry (Figure 4). For more rain gauge data please contact [email protected] or visit http://www.faoswalim.org. FEWS NET Somalia FEWS NET Washington Nairobi 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: +254 2 4000 504/18/38 Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected] Figure 1. Rainfall estimate (mm), May 21-31, 2012 Figure 2: Rainfall Percent of normal May 21-31, 2012 Figure 3. E-modis NDVI anomaly third dekad of May 2012 Figure 4. Seven days forecast valid up to June 11 2012 Sources: FEWS NET/NOAA/CPC FEWS NET Somalia FEWS NET Washington Nairobi 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: +254 2 4000 504/18/38 Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected] .