CENTRALE BANK VAN ARUBA QUARTERLY BULLETIN 2007-IV April 22, 2008 Issue no. 86 Correspondence related to this report should be addressed to the Research Department of the Centrale Bank van Aruba J.E. Irausquin Boulevard 8 P.O. Box 18 Telephone: (297) 5252-100 Telefax: (297) 5252-101 Website: www.cbaruba.org E-mail: [email protected] © 2008 De Centrale Bank van Aruba The information contained in this report may be published and copied for educational and noncommercial purposes, provided the source is acknowledged. ISSN: 0920-9905 CONTENTS List of abbreviations 1. Developments in the fourth quarter of 2007 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 The real sector 3 - Tourism - Construction - Utilities - Oil sector - Merchandise trade - Price developments 1.3 Money and credit 7 - Changes in the money supply - Interest rates - Monetary developments during 2007 1.4 Nonmonetary financial institutions 10 - The balance sheet - The mortgage market 1.5 Government finance 11 - Financial operations - Outstanding debt 1.6 Balance of payments 14 - Overall outcome - Oil sector - Free-zone sector - Rest of the economy 2. Notices and articles 2.1 A quantitative overview of financial sector developments An article by the Supervision Department. 21 2.2 Speech by Mr. H. Mehran, President of the Centrale Bank van Aruba, on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of AIB Bank N.V. (AIB), February 22, 2008 47 3. Statistical annex List of abbreviations AAA Aruba Airport Authority N.V. AIB AIB Bank N.V. APFA Stichting Algemeen Pensioenfonds Aruba (the civil servants pension fund) ATA Aruba Tourism Authority AVV Aruba Vrijgestelde Vennootschap (the Aruba exempt corporations) AZV Algemene Ziektekostenverzekering (the general health insurance) BBO Belasting op Bedrijfsomzetten (the turnover tax) BLS U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CBA Centrale Bank van Aruba (the Central Bank of Aruba) CBS Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (the central bureau of statistics in Aruba) CBSne Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (the central bureau of statistics in the Netherlands) CBSna Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (the central bureau of statistics in the Netherlands Antilles) CPI Consumer Price Index CTA Cruise Tourism Authority CTO Caribbean Tourism Organization DEZHI Directie Economische Zaken Handel en Industrie (the Department of Economic Affairs, Commerce and Industry of Aruba) DF Department of Finance DNB De Nederlandsche Bank (the Dutch central bank) DTI Dienst Technische Inspecties (the department of technical inspections) ECB European Central Bank ELMAR Naamloze Vennootschap Electriciteit-Maatschappij Aruba (the electricity company of Aruba) ESCB European System of Central Banks FATF Financial Action Task Force FDA Stichting Fondo Desaroyo Aruba (the development fund foundation of Aruba) FRB U.S. Federal Reserve Board FRL Fiscal Responsibility Law GDP Gross Domestic Product IMF International Monetary Fund IT Information Technology MOT Meldpunt Ongebruikelijke Transacties (the reporting center for unusual transactions) NCPF National Commission on Public Finance SETAR Servicio di Telecomunicacion di Aruba (Setar) N.V. (a telecommunications company of Aruba) SOSCS State Ordinance on the Supervision of the Credit System SOSMTC State Ordinance on the Supervision of the Money Transfer Companies SVB Sociale Verzekeringsbank (the social security bank) TCO Tax Collector’s Office WEB Water en Energie Bedrijf (the water and power company) 1. DEVELOPMENTS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2007 1.1 Introduction The fourth quarter of 2007 Available information indicates a growth in business activities in the fourth quarter of 2007, despite inflationary conditions. The tourism sector saw a substantial gain in its output. Indicative hereof is a 27.3 percent expansion in gross tourism receipts. Moreover, available data on airport arrivals, which can be considered an approximation for tourist arrivals, indicate a 13.8 percent growth in the quarter under review compared to the fourth quarter of 2006. Additional information shows expansions in other sectors of the economy as well, i.e., the utilities industry and the oil sector, while the value of merchandise imports, as compiled by the CBS, grew by 15.1 percent, indicating a strengthening in both domestic and tourism demand. In contrast, the construction indicators show a slowdown in related activities. Inflationary pressures remained strong in the fourth quarter of 2007, reflecting largely the effects of the BBO, higher gasoline prices, and increased tariffs of water and electricity. The quarterly average inflation rate accelerated by 6.6 percentage points to 8.7 percent, compared to the corresponding quarter a year earlier. When excluding the energy-related components, the inflation rate increased by 3.3 percentage points to 5.5 percent, compared to the fourth quarter of 2006. Measured on a 12-month basis, the inflation rate rose by 2.4 percentage points to 6.0 percent, compared to a year earlier. Consequently, the inflation differential with the United States, Aruba’s main trading partner, widened markedly from 0.4 percentage point in the fourth quarter of 2006 to 3.1 percentage points in the quarter under review, thus resulting in a further deterioration of Aruba’s international competitive position. Money supply expanded by Afl. 15.6 million or 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007 compared to the previous quarter, on balance the result of an Afl. 95.1 million net inflow of funds from abroad and an Afl. 79.5 million (4.1 percent) contraction in net domestic assets. Net claims of the banking sector on the public sector shrank by Afl. 51.5 million, mainly following an increase in government’s deposits with the banking sector. In addition, the non-credit-related balance sheet items contributed Afl. 34.5 million to the decline in net domestic assets. In contrast, banking sector credit granted to the private sector grew by Afl. 6.5 million or 0.3 percent, because of increases in loans to enterprises and housing mortgages of Afl. 7.8 million (0.7 percent) and Afl. 2.6 million (0.3 percent), respectively. In contrast, consumer credit shrank by Afl. 3.7 million (0.7 percent). In the fourth quarter of 2007, transactions with nonresidents resulted in a further widening of the overall surplus on the balance of payments to Afl. 95.1 million, up from Afl. 25.9 million in the corresponding quarter a year earlier. This outcome was the result of a turnaround in the balance of the capital and financial account, i.e., from an Afl. 159.2 million deficit in the fourth quarter of 2006 to an Afl. 26.2 million surplus in the quarter under review. This development was offset in part by a decline in the surplus on the current account, i.e., from Afl. 194.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2006 to Afl. 63.7 million in the period under review. On balance, all sectors contributed Afl. 95.1 million to the net inflow of funds from abroad in the quarter under review. 1 In the fourth quarter of 2007, the government financial deficit (including the change in unmet financing requirements) widened to Afl. 42.5 million, up from Afl. 35.7 million in the corresponding quarter of 2006. The larger government financial deficit was mostly the result of an Afl. 26.9 million rise in government expenditures (including the change in unmet financing requirements), which was mitigated by an Afl. 19.9 million expansion in government revenue. At the end of December 2007, total government debt amounted to Afl. 2,143.0 million, which is Afl. 123.5 million (6.1 percent) more than a year earlier, reflecting increases in both domestic and foreign debt of, respectively, Afl. 75.2 million (6.9 percent) and Afl. 48.3 million (5.2 percent). The debt-to-GDP ratio declined by 1.0 percentage point to 45.6 percent, when measured against the nominal GDP of 2007. The year 2007 In 2007 as a whole, preliminary estimations show that the Aruban economy expanded further by 2.1 percent, up from 0.6 percent in 2006, amid increased inflationary pressures as a result of the turnover tax and higher gasoline prices and utility tariffs. This positive outcome was driven largely by a recovery in tourism. According to preliminary data of the Ministry of Tourism, the number of stay-over visitors rose by 8.6 percent, against a 5.2 percent contraction in 2006. In addition, gross tourism receipts went up by 16.5 percent in 2007, in contrast to a 1.4 percent decline in 2006. Money supply grew by Afl. 83.0 million or 3.3 percent in 2007 compared to a year earlier. The growth in money supply was largely on account of an Afl. 54.5 million net inflow of funds from abroad and an Afl. 28.4 million (1.6 percent) rise in net domestic assets. The latter is the result of an Afl. 92.1 million or 3.9 percent rise in banking sector credit to the private sector, following increases in housing mortgages, loans to enterprises and consumer credit of, respectively, Afl. 38.3 million (5.1 percent), Afl. 30.9 million (3.0 percent) and Afl. 30.8 million (5.8 percent). Moreover, net claims of the banking sector on the public sector grew by Afl. 5.1 million, which was on balance the result of an Afl. 12.8 million increase in gross claims and an Afl. 7.7 million rise in government’s deposits at the banking sector. In contrast, the non-credit-related balance sheet items contributed Afl. 68.8 million negatively to the increase in money supply. It should be mentioned that while the CBA will gradually switch its monetary policy towards indirect, more market-oriented instruments in 2008, it will maintain the current stance for 2008. This implies that the total banking sector credit growth limitation for 2008 will be kept at 5.0 percent (on an aggregated basis).