Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 51 (2015) 910–925 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/rser Bolivia and Paraguay: A beacon for sustainable electric mobility? Ildo L. Sauer a,n, Javier F. Escobar a, Mauro F.P. da Silva b, Carlos G. Meza a, Carlos Centurion a, José Goldemberg a a Institute of Energy and Environment, University of São Paulo, SP, Brazil b Polytechnic School of the University of São Paulo, SP, Brazil article info abstract Article history: This paper presents a review of studies and data on lithium resources and batteries and on electric cars, Received 30 December 2014 alongside with an exploratory study of the feasibility of replacing car fleet for personal transportation, Received in revised form using internal combustion engines (ICE), currently used in Paraguay and Bolivia, by equivalent electric 4 May 2015 vehicles. The energy mixes and natural resources of Bolivia and Paraguay ensue a unique opportunity for Accepted 29 June 2015 the development and production of electric cars in Latin America. Economic, energy, environmental, mineral resources criteria are considered. The introduction of electric mobility is evaluated in two Keywords: scenarios: first, with electric vehicles available in the international market (EV); and, alternatively, with Bolivia the implementation and development of local lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries and electric vehicles Paraguay industries. Electric vehicles with Li-ion battery (BEV) could be built leveraging on the strategic Sustainable electric mobility advantages of natural resources from the Uyuni Salt Lake – Bolivia and the availability of electricity in Lithium Li-ion Paraguay from the Itaipu hydro-power plant, as well as from Bolivian natural gas and renewable resources. The battery industry could be located in Bolivia while the Latin-American electric vehicle (LEV) industry could be based in Paraguay. Estimates conducted in this study show that replacement of existing fleet with (LEV) in the period of 10 years, the cumulative economic benefits for Paraguay are US$ 996 million and Bolivia in US$ 1373 million. Such replacement would allow a reduction of (GHG) emissions (greenhouse gases) nearly 8398 Gg total CO2 avoided for Paraguay and 9420 Gg total CO2 avoided for Bolivia, replacing (ICEV) internal combustion engine vehicle. However, the scenario envisioned to induce scale for local industrialization would rely on a conservative replacement of the 40 thousand vehicles per year in each country. The underlying idea is to gain scale locally for the initial production chain and then access the Latin American and world markets. & 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Contents 1. Introduction........................................................................................................ 911 2. Paraguay's energy sector overview . 911 2.1. Automotive transport in Paraguay . 913 3. Overview of the Bolivian energy sector and lithium carbonate resources . 913 3.1. Automotive transport in Bolivia . 914 4. Electric vehicles (EVs) and technology status of Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) . 915 5. Production of LIBs and investment estimates for Paraguayan–Bolivian factory . 916 6. Methodology . 918 6.1. Paraguay..................................................................................................... 918 6.1.1. Consumer's perspective . 918 6.1.2. Social perspective . 919 6.2. Bolivia ...................................................................................................... 919 6.2.1. Consumers' perspective . 919 6.2.2. Social perspective . 920 n Correspondence to: Av. Professor Luciano Gualberto, 1289, Cidade Universitária, São Paulo-SP. Zip code: 05508-010. Tel.: þ55 11 30912633; fax: þ55 11 38167828. E-mail address: [email protected] (I.L. Sauer). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.06.038 1364-0321/& 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. I.L. Sauer et al. / Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 51 (2015) 910–925 911 7. Conclusions, policy implications and further research. 922 Acknowledgments. 923 References.............................................................................................................923 1. Introduction development of energy resources. Nowadays, Bolivian government considers the industrialization of the Salar de Uyuni one of the At the beginning of the global automotive history the electric strategic projects and has invested US$ 17 million on an experimental vehicle market dominated mostly by being silent, simple, reliable. lithium extraction plant and intends to begin industrial production Despite these positive features, electric vehicles had low autonomy with an investment of US$ 350 million by the end of 2014 [12]. and high cost of production, under the prevailing technological In the city of Hernandárias, Saltos del Guaira department, “ conditions. As Hoyer [1] summarizes the history of electric cars is Paraguay, an industrial park is being developed, with power ” “ closely related to the history of batteries and from 1880 to around infrastructure including a 300 kV substation to supply the demand 1900, should become the most intensive period in electric car of future industries [13]. A subsidiary of the Korean company ” deployment a golden age, that ended in the early 1920s. Although Hyundai has confirmed it will manufacture electronics for auto- grids of charging stations were established this infrastructure was motive area, an initial step for materializing the regional industrial unable to compete with extensive development of gasoline stations potential [14]. Interest in establishing an electric car assembly line [1,2]. Thereafter the prevailing automotive technology was that of in the region has already been under scrutiny in 2008 by German internal combustion engines. This was a consequence of the second Ruf Automobile, based on its eRuf Electric Vehicles concept: it phase of the industrial revolution, which occurred between the would initially rely on conventional car assembly line replacing 19th and 20th centuries. During this period, petroleum fuels propulsion internal combustion engine and braking systems with became the main vehicular energy sources, aligning automobile the Ruf electric power train that would be manufactured locally. and oil market structures with commercial and production practices Progressively all parts to supply the vehicle assembly line would as well as marketing arrangements. According to Puerto Rico et al. be manufactured in the region. Discussions of the proposal were [3] and Dimitri and Effland [4], the economic interests of three discontinued with the fall of the Lugo government in Paraguay. production sectors were aligned: the exploration and refining of This work aims to evaluate from economic, financial, environ- petroleum, chemicals and automotive, a strategy strongly pursued mental and geopolitical energy perspective replacing ICEV (diesel respectively by major representative companies: Standard Oil and and gasoline) for BEV in Paraguay and Bolivia. The introduction of its spinoffs, Du Pont and General Motors. electric mobility is evaluated in two scenarios: first, with electric After a whole century, sustained high oil prices since 2005 and vehicles available in the international market (EV); and, alterna- technological development of electric motors for traction and asso- tively, with the development and implementation of local industries ciated batteries, are allowing for a comeback and mass production of for lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries and electric car manufacturing. electric vehicles that are again set for competition with ICEV. Despite the intrinsic merits, the hybrid electric car option has According to Baddour [5] main reasons for the starting of a comeback not been considered in this study for having much less strategic in the 1990s are due to price and oil supply crisis in the seventies and connection with the typology of the natural resources of Bolivia eighties and to global environmental concerns. The 1990s has been and Paraguay than the electric car option. the most intensive period in relation to both electric and hybrid car research and development, with all major car producers in the world engaged [1]. Although the efficiency improvements of ICEVs achieved 2. Paraguay's energy sector overview in the last decade, emissions for new vehicles are still around 140.3 gCO2/km, (Faria et al. [6] and Lutsey [7]. Paraguay has a single vertically integrated electricity company, In 1932–1935 Bolivia and Paraguay fought a war for oil of the the National Electricity Administration (ANDE), owned by Para- Chaco Boreal region that was not yet found. Bolivia is a country that guayan Government. ANDE has a monopoly for generation, trans- has overcome a century of political instabilities, largely through mission and distribution, as well as for operation. Paraguay is the mechanisms of social control for the exploration and development of largest per capita hydroelectric power generator in the world, natural resources in favor of public interest, thus healing historical getting its energy from hydroelectric plants built in association social conflicts and disputes with the resources accrued by the export with Brazil (Itaipu) and Argentina (Yacyretá) [15] holding a 50% of natural gas to Brazil and Argentina. Similarly, Paraguay has share in each project. Itaipu has an installed capacity of substantially normalized its relations with neighboring countries as 14,000 MW, with an annual