FROM COUSTEAU TO CAMERON: A QUADRANT MODEL FOR UNDERSEA MARINE RESEARCH INFRASTRUCTURE ASSESSMENT by Karen M. Kohanowich A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of George Mason University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Environmental Science and Public Policy Committee: Dr. E.C.M. Parsons, Dissertation Director Dr. Patrick M. Gillevet, Committee Member Dr. Joseph A. Maxwell, Committee Member Dr. Esther C. Peters, Committee Member __________________________________ Dr. Albert P. Torzilli, Graduate Program Director __________________________________ Dr. A. Alonso Aguirre, Department Chairperson __________________________________ Dr. Donna M. Fox, Associate Dean, Office of Student Affairs & Special Programs, College of Science ___________________________________ Dr. Peggy Agouris, Dean, College of Science Date: _____________________________ Fall Semester 2016 George Mason University Fairfax, VA From Cousteau to Cameron: A Quadrant Model For Undersea Marine Research Infrastructure Assessment A Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at George Mason University by Karen M. Kohanowich Master of Science Johns Hopkins University, 2005 Master of Science United States Naval Postgraduate School, 1995 Bachelor of Science Vanderbilt University, 1982 Director: E.C.M. Parsons, Professor Department of Environmental Science and Public Policy Fall Semester 2016 George Mason University Fairfax, VA This work is licensed under a creative commons attribution-noderivs 3.0 unported license. ii DEDICATION This is dedicated to all who struggle with evaluating the complex and the intangible. And to Mom, who has believed in me every step of the way. Everyone should be as fortunate to have such love and support. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS At many times during this enterprise I felt like a caveman crafting a petroglyph alone in the dark, but the effort could never have been completed without the help of entire communities. Thank you to everyone who engaged with me and provided their insights during my forays, both during and before this particular study. A very special thank you to my companion, Tim Janaitis, who knew when to enter the cave and provide food and light. You’re a prince. To my advisor, Dr. Chris Parsons, who encouraged me to create what I wanted this to be, and who broke my grip on first drafts (“The sketches of the Mona Lisa aren’t worth anything until the Mona Lisa is finished”). To Dr. Joe Maxwell, whose philosophy of ‘bricolage’ and mixed methods was refreshing and empowering; Dr. Esther Peters for her patient and thorough editing skill—the ‘fine grit’ that is so important to the finished product; Dr. Pat Gillevet, whose energy always brought a new dimension to the discussion; and Dr. Lee Talbot, whose lessons of “Translating Policy to Action” planted the seeds for this study. Sharon Bloomquist and Sally Evans, neither George Mason’s Department of Environmental Science and Policy nor the Dissertation Thesis Service could get along without you. One individual has a particularly thorough and unique understanding of the diversions and challenges that went into this endeavor—thank you Dr. Mel Briscoe for your patient, free flowing discussions, insights, and recommendations over many mentoring lunches at the various ethnic eateries in the DC area. This work would also not have been possible without the support of leadership and colleagues at NOAA: Dr. Rick Spinrad, who established the graduate studies program that allowed me to pursue this work, and who shared initial motivational ideas; Craig Mclean, for my selection into the program; Dr. Alan Leonardi, who encouraged my goals and supported my work schedule; and especially John McDonough, who provided a sound foundation from which to manage the day-to-day challenges of balancing work and studies. Thank you to Dr. Tom Hourigan for assistance with the deep-sea coral pursuit that contributed many insights to this study. So many colleagues, scientists, and professionals have contributed their time and energy, and left their influence throughout the pages of this document. Thank you all, and a special appreciation to those who helped review the final versions for accuracy and objectivity. iv At the risk of overlooking someone, and apologies to anyone I have inadvertently omitted, I would like to recognize and thank: Dr. Peter Auster; Ivar Babb; Dr. Bob Ballard; Gary Bane; Dr. Jim Bellingham; Dick Blidberg; Andy Bowen; Bill Busch; Louis Cantrell; Craig Cooper; Dr. Marie Helene Cormier; Dr. Tom Curtin, Drs. Fraser and Anni Dagleish; Annette DeSilva (upon whose shoulders UNOLS stands); Dolly Dieter; Dr. Sylvia Earle; Dr. Peter Etnoyer; Dr. Exequiel Ezcurra; Stephanie Farrington; Dr. Dan Fornari; Dr. Jim Forqurean; Dr. Patty Fryer; Diana Garcia Benito; Dr. Deborah Glickson; Kristen Green; Dr. Gary Greene; Kevin Hardy; Graham Hawkes; Jeff Heaton; Pat Hickey; Bob Houtman; Chris Ijames; Al Kalvaitis; Dr. Chris Kelly; Terry Kerby; Dr. Darlene Kim; Donna Kocak; Will and Charles Kohnen; Evan Kovacs; Bill Lange; Don Liberatore; Dr. Milton Love; Dr. Alexander Malahoff; Dr. Larry Mayer; Dr. Chuck Messing; Bill Michaels; Drew Michel; Brian Midson; Barbara Moore; Rob Munier; Dr. Steve Murawski; Dennis Nixon; Phil Nuytten; Dr. Tory O'Connell; Dr. Frank Parrish; RADM (ret) Dick Pittenger; Dr. Shirley Pomponi; Tom Potts; Dr. Steve Ramberg; John Reed; Dr. Jennifer Reynolds; Dr. Susan Roberts; Dr. Alex Rogers; Dr. Steve Ross; Stockton Rush; Craig Russell; Dr. Anatoly Sagalevitch; Tim Schnoor; Dan Schwartz; Andy Shepard; Dave Sherman of the WHOI library; Dr. Alexander ‘Sandy’ Shore; Dr. Hanu Singh; Dr. John Smith; Dr. Adam Soule; Bruce Strickrot; Bill Todd; Marcio Troccoli; Dr. Cindy Van Dover; Dr. Waldo Wakefield; Dr. Don Walsh; Dr. Edie Widder; Dana Wilkes; Dr. John Wiltshire; Dr. Jim Yoder; Dr. Dana Yoerger; Dr. Mary Yolkavich; Dr. Craig Young; Dr. Marsh Youngbluth; members of the MTS Manned Underwater Vehicle Committee; and colleagues of Underwater Intervention and the DESCEND 1999 and 2016 conferences. And to the submersible science, engineering and policy experts with whom I was unable to engage during this study, I look forward to discussions during continued research efforts and science activities. For always listening and laughing, to my very best friends: Tracy, Amy, Kristen, Carol, Wendy, Alanna, Elisa, Jo, Craig, Leslie, Tom, Helene, Pam and Joe; and family: Katrina, Scott, Hank and Tessa; Kurt, Therese, Ellen and Madeleine; Albert and Dorothy; Spencer, Dave, Phoebe and Eddie; Jocelyn, Sandro, Gabby, A.J. and Fausto; and Robin, Kris, Anita and Uncle Junnie. Finally, I am also especially grateful to Oliver Steeds and the Project Nekton team, and Robert Carmichael and the entire R/V Baseline Explorer crew for inviting and welcoming me aboard their submersible expedition off Bermuda in August 2016, and allowing me to rekindle a love of being at sea. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page List of Tables ................................................................................................................... xiii List of Figures ................................................................................................................... xiv List of Acronyms ............................................................................................................ xvii Abstract ........................................................................................................................... xxii Chapter One : Evaluating Marine Research Infrastructure ................................................. 1 1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Marine Research Technology Background ................................................................ 5 1.2.1 Ocean processes and scales ................................................................................. 5 1.2.2 Undersea marine research infrastructure systems ............................................... 9 1.2.2.1 Human Occupied Vehicles ........................................................................ 12 1.2.2.2 Remotely Operated Vehicles ..................................................................... 17 1.2.2.3 Other undersea technologies ...................................................................... 20 1.3 Assessment Methods ................................................................................................ 22 1.3.1 Scientific Choice ............................................................................................... 22 1.3.2 U.S. Oceanographic research prioritization ...................................................... 25 1.3.3 Ocean infrastructure assessments ...................................................................... 27 1.3.4 Operations research-informed methods ............................................................ 29 1.3.4.1 Multiple Criteria Decision Making ........................................................... 30 1.3.4.2 Portfolio management ............................................................................... 31 1.3.5 Life cycle management approach ...................................................................... 32 1.3.5.1 Obsolescence ............................................................................................. 33 1.3.5.2 Replaceability ...........................................................................................