Society of Actuaries Research Brief Impact of COVID-19 May 15, 2020 May 2020 2 Society of Actuaries Research Brief Impact of COVID-19 May 15, 2020 AUTHORS R. Dale Hall, FSA, MAAA, CERA, CFA Cynthia S. MacDonald, FSA, MAAA Peter J. Miller, ASA, MAAA Achilles N. Natsis, FSA, MAAA Lisa A. Schilling, FSA, EA, FCA, MAAA Steven C. Siegel, ASA, MAAA J. Patrick Wiese, ASA REVIEWERS Michael C. Dubin, FSA, FCAS, FCA, MAAA Timothy J. Geddes, FSA, EA, FCA, MAAA Daniel J. Geiger, PhD Umesh Haran, FSA, ACIA, CERA Jing Lang, FSA, FCIA Ronald Poon Affat, FSA, FIA, MAAA, CFA Max J. Rudolph, FSA, MAAA, CERA, CFA Nazir Valani, FSA, FCIA, MAAA Greger Vigen Caveat and Disclaimer This study is published by the Society of Actuaries (SOA) and contains information from a variety of sources. The study is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as professional or financial advice. The SOA does not recommend or endorse any use of the information provided in this study. The SOA makes no warranty, express or implied, or representation whatsoever and assumes no liability in connection with the use or misuse of this study. Copyright © 2020 by the Society of Actuaries. All rights reserved. Copyright © 2020 Society of Actuaries 3 CONTENTS Introduction.............................................................................................................................................................. 5 Key Statistics............................................................................................................................................................. 6 Reported Cases .............................................................................................................................................................. 6 Worldwide Cases ............................................................................................................................................... 6 U.S. and Canadian cases .................................................................................................................................... 7 Case Fatality Rates ......................................................................................................................................................... 9 CFRs by Age Group ............................................................................................................................................ 9 U.S. Subpopulations ........................................................................................................................................ 11 CFR Limitations ................................................................................................................................................ 12 Reported Cases vs. Actual Cases..................................................................................................................... 15 COVID-19 Mortality Rate Curves ................................................................................................................................. 15 COVID-19 Mortality Relative to All Causes of Death .................................................................................................. 18 Excess Mortality ........................................................................................................................................................... 18 Comparison to Past Pandemics and Influenza ........................................................................................................... 19 COVID-19 and Past Epidemics and Pandemics .............................................................................................. 19 COVID-19 and Influenza .................................................................................................................................. 20 Health Care Cost and Utilization ................................................................................................................................. 22 Supply of Medical Resources .......................................................................................................................... 23 Hospitalization Rates ....................................................................................................................................... 23 Comorbidities .................................................................................................................................................. 28 COVID-19 Treatment ....................................................................................................................................... 30 Non-COVID-19 Health care ............................................................................................................................. 32 Mental Health .................................................................................................................................................. 32 Infection Spread Rate .................................................................................................................................................. 33 Economic and Asset Impact .................................................................................................................................... 35 Macroeconomic Variables ........................................................................................................................................... 35 Monetary and Fiscal Policy ............................................................................................................................. 35 Employment..................................................................................................................................................... 37 Gross Domestic Product .................................................................................................................................. 39 Asset Values and Volatility........................................................................................................................................... 40 Low Interest Rate Environment .................................................................................................................................. 41 Reinvestment and Default Risk ................................................................................................................................... 42 Impact on Insurance Industry .................................................................................................................................. 44 Impact on Life Insurance Companies .......................................................................................................................... 44 Impact on Health Insurance Companies ..................................................................................................................... 46 Impact on Property/Casualty Coverages .................................................................................................................... 48 Business Interruption Insurance ..................................................................................................................... 49 Cancellation Insurance .................................................................................................................................... 49 Workers’ compensation .................................................................................................................................. 49 Personal Automobile Insurance ...................................................................................................................... 50 Medical Malpractice Insurance ...................................................................................................................... 51 Financial Guaranty/Mortgage Guaranty ........................................................................................................ 51 Impact on Captive Insurance Companies ................................................................................................................... 51 Changes in Insurance Regulation and Contractual Requirements ............................................................................ 51 Cyber Risk ..................................................................................................................................................................... 52 Impact on Retirement Plans .................................................................................................................................... 52 Corporate Defined Benefit Retirement Plans ............................................................................................................. 53 Copyright © 2020 Society of Actuaries 4 Multiemployer Defined Benefit Retirement Plans ..................................................................................................... 54 Public Defined Benefit Retirement Plans .................................................................................................................... 55 Defined Contribution Retirement Plans ..................................................................................................................... 56 Impact on Social Insurance ..................................................................................................................................... 56 U.S. Social Insurance PRograms .................................................................................................................................