The MAGAI™ Construct and the Northern Distribution Network CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & INTERNATIONAL STUDIES A Report of the CSIS Project on the Northern CSIS Distribution Network for Afghanistan 1800 K Street, NW | Washington, DC 20006 project codirectors Tel: (202) 887-0200 | Fax: (202) 775-3199 Andrew C. Kuchins E-mail: [email protected] | Web: www.csis.org Thomas M. Sanderson author Stephen Benson November 2009 CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & CSIS INTERNATIONAL STUDIES The MAGAI™ Construct and the Northern Distribution Network A Report of the CSIS Project on the Northern Distribution Network for Afghanistan project codirectors Andrew C. Kuchins Thomas M. Sanderson author Stephen Benson November 2009 About CSIS In an era of ever-changing global opportunities and challenges, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) provides strategic insights and practical policy solutions to decisionmakers. CSIS conducts research and analysis and develops policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change. Founded by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke at the height of the Cold War, CSIS was dedicated to the simple but urgent goal of finding ways for America to survive as a nation and prosper as a people. Since 1962, CSIS has grown to become one of the world’s preeminent public policy institutions. Today, CSIS is a bipartisan, nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, DC. More than 220 full-time staff and a large network of affiliated scholars focus their expertise on defense and security; on the world’s regions and the unique challenges inherent to them; and on the issues that know no boundary in an increasingly connected world. Former U.S. senator Sam Nunn became chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in 1999, and John J. Hamre has led CSIS as its president and chief executive officer since 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). © 2009 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006 Tel: (202) 775-3119 Fax: (202) 775-3199 Web: www.csis.org y contents About the Northern Distribution Network Project iv Acknowledgments iv Executive Summary v Using Supply Lines Strategically: How Can Supply Lines Facilitate Broader Objectives in Eurasia? 1 A “True Regional Approach to Afghanistan” 3 How Can Supply Lines Be Used to Promote More of a Regional Approach to Afghanistan? 8 How Can New Supply Lines Catalyze and Sustain Development? What Impact Can this Development Have on the Region—and Afghanistan in Particular? 13 | iii About the Northern Distribution Network Project As the U.S. presence in Afghanistan increases, so too will its demand for nonmilitary supplies. To accommodate this growth and address ongoing concerns with Pakistani supply lines, U.S. planners have opened the Northern Distribution Network (NDN), a commercially based logistical corridor connecting Baltic and Black Sea ports with Afghanistan via Russia, Central Asia, and the Caucasus. The NDN has impacted the geopolitical landscape of Eurasia. While key transit states enjoy new leverage over Washington, the NDN also serves as a potential vehicle for constructive U.S. engagement. Understanding how to manage these geopolitical risks and opportunities will be critical for the United States and is the first goal of this project. Though the impetus behind the NDN is grounded in the military’s immediate needs, its establishment nonetheless also offers a unique opportunity for the United States to help facilitate intercontinental trade. Such commerce can provide sustainable income for Afghanistan, deepen its integration with neighboring states, and ultimately contribute to the country’s stabilization. Thus, the second goal of this project is to ensure that the expansion of supply routes is fully leveraged to further this long-term objective. Acknowledgments This publication was made possible by a grant from the Waring and Carmen Partridge Foundation. The CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program wishes to thank the Carnegie Corporation of New York for its core project support. Overall support for the CSIS Transnational Threats Project is provided by the Sarah Scaife Foundation. iv | the magai construct and the northern distribution network Executive Summary The United States is pouring massive resources and risking precious lives of its soldiers in its efforts to stabilize Afghanistan, a part of the world most Americans could not identify on a map before 9/11. President Barack Obama has already increased the U.S. force presence considerably and is deliberating further increases in what may be the most portentous decision of his presidency. But his administration, as well as its predecessor, undercuts the rationale for engagement in this remote barren land by emphasizing only the prevention of future and perhaps catastrophic terrorist attacks on the U.S. homeland. As this paper argues, there is a deeper and broader strategic argument for U.S. engagement, shaped by longstanding global forces illuminated in a novel manner by the MAGAI™ Construct. The MAGAI™ Construct presents a unique way to capture the transcontinental, indeed global, dimensions of instability in Afghanistan and the surrounding region. The MAGAI combines two post–Cold War strategic realities: 1. A Modern Activity Gap (MAG) precariously positioned in Central Asia that acts as a barricade to the flow of deepening economic interdependencies that circumnavigate the northern hemisphere; and 2. The Arch of Instability (AI), a zone of unstable conditions from the Middle East to South Asia first identified by Zbigniew Brzezinski nearly 30 years ago. This post–Cold War instability has gained a firm foothold in the MAG where its risks are magnified by Islamic extremists seeking to overthrow weak regional governments as well as foment terrorist acts around the globe. The MAG exists in stark contrast to the rapidly evolving economic conditions to its east and west. Rooted in the MAG, unstable conditions meet an inexorable demand to connect Europe with Asia across a new land bridge, the modern Silk Road (MSR). Along the MSR, transcontinental tensions among the world’s largest economies, competition for access to resources and routes, and a radical Muslim agenda merge. In this environment, CENTCOM’s Northern Distribution Network pursues options for Afghanistan resupply by involving a wider group of linked partners along the MSR. To meet the demand signals from increased force levels engaged in higher levels of sustained combat, supporting transport infrastructure and processes need to be improved, security needs to be maintained, and sensitive political conditions must be considered. Addressing the immense challenges and the opportunities across the MAG is an imperative, and tools that help the experts to visualize, quantify, and analyze the MAGAI™ Construct are badly needed. stephen benson | v Blank embedd the magai™ construct and the northern distribution network Stephen Benson1 Using Supply Lines Strategically: How Can Supply Lines Facilitate Broader Objectives in Eurasia? A military logistics demand signal pulling all classes of supply from bullets to beans to band aides from all directions across continental distances to the most landlocked region on earth is a unique challenge. U.S. military logisticians wrote of the “tyranny of distance” when they talked about NATO resupply via the North Atlantic routes during the Cold War; more recently, the phrase was used in addressing supporting operations in Iraq. However, support to the Afghanistan campaign provides a brand new perspective on the “tyranny of distance.” The prime movers for supporting operations in Afghanistan are commercial transportation companies operating through dozens of countries over land, sea, and air. The road, rail, and air transportation infrastructure supporting Afghanistan starts with the modern, high-tech infrastructure of Western Europe and East Asia. The supply lines and the transportation infrastructure then slowly deteriorates the closer one gets to Afghanistan. In fact, at or very near the borders of Afghanistan modern transportation nearly ceases: only a few canalized avenues of approach exist on semi-improved road surfaces to military logistics hubs in country. To illustrate, figure 1 is a 2005 UN depiction of railways surrounding and within Central Asia. The image shows an Afghanistan strikingly removed from the transcontinental rail flow—off the transportation grid. This transportation marginalization calls attention to the difficulties in achieving overall strategic objectives. It also begs the question, how does the demand signal emanating from Afghanistan impact the surrounding region. Planners and operators must recognize the lack of logistics capability organic to Afghanistan, and they must accept, at least for now, a regional transportation infrastructure that has been neglected over the past two decades. Moreover, this transportation system was structured to satisfy Soviet central planning objectives and may have little to do with 1 Stephen Benson is an adjunct fellow with the CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program and the founder and president of Littoral Solutions Inc. | 1 Figure 1. Central and South Asian Railways efficient and effective regional and transregional commercial transportation. The impact of these conditions on the required flow of supplies will be more pronounced as the demand signal