The author(s) shown below used Federal funds provided by the U.S. Department of Justice and prepared the following final report: Document Title: It Came from the North: Estimating the Flow of Methamphetamine and Other Synthetic Drugs From Quebec, Canada Author(s): David Farabee, Carlo Morselli, Sheldon Zhang Document No.: 248134 Date Received: September 2014 Award Number: 2010-IJ-CX-0020 This report has not been published by the U.S. Department of Justice. To provide better customer service, NCJRS has made this Federally- funded grant report available electronically. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. It Came from the North: Estimating the Flow of Methamphetamine and Other Synthetic Drugs From Quebec, Canada FINAL REPORT NIJ Grant No. 2010 IJ CX 0020 March 31, 2014 David Farabee, University of California, Los Angeles Carlo Morselli, University of Montreal Sheldon Zhang, San Diego State University This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. Table of Contents I. ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................. 3 II. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 4 II.1. THE RISING ROLE OF CANADA AS A GLOBAL SUPPLIER OF ILLICIT DRUGS .......................... 5 II.2. QUEBEC—A MAJOR METH PRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION REGION IN NORTH AMERICA 6 III. ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS ................................................................................ 7 III.A. ESTIMATING THE SIZE OF THE CANADIAN SYNTHETIC DRUGS MARKET ............................ 7 III.A.1. Patterns in ATS Use in Canada .................................................................................. 8 III.A.2. A New Method to Estimate Illicit Drug Use from Wastewater Analysis ................ 11 III.A.3. Patterns in ATS Production in Canada and the US .................................................. 12 III.A.4. Methods to Estimate the Size of Illegal Markets ..................................................... 15 III.A.5. Methods to Estimate Quantities of Drugs ................................................................ 20 III.A.6. Data Sources ............................................................................................................ 21 III.A.7. Results ...................................................................................................................... 23 III.A.8. Section Summary ..................................................................................................... 44 III.B. CHEMICAL COMPOSITION AND PRICE ASSESSMENTS OF THE ............................................ 46 III.B.1. Quebec Synthetic Drugs Market .............................................................................. 46 III.B.2. Assessments of the Synthetic Drug Market ............................................................. 47 III.B.3. Determinants of Illegal Drug Prices ......................................................................... 49 III.B.4. Analytical Approach ................................................................................................ 50 III.B.5. Sources of Synthetic Drug Tablets ........................................................................... 50 III.B.6. Profiling Quebec’s Synthetic Drug Market .............................................................. 51 III.B.7. Linking the Seized Drugs ......................................................................................... 51 III.B.8. The Structural Features of the Market ...................................................................... 53 III.B.9. Factors that Influence Synthetic Drug Prices ........................................................... 55 III.B.10. Section Summary ................................................................................................... 58 III. C. SPATIAL ANALYSES OF BORDER SEIZURE DATA ............................................................. 62 III.C.1. Georeferencing Method............................................................................................ 62 III.C.2. Analysis methods ..................................................................................................... 63 III.C.3. Results ...................................................................................................................... 64 III.C.4. Hot Spot Analysis..................................................................................................... 70 III.C.5. Seizures from the United States ............................................................................... 76 III.C.6. Seizures exported from Canada ................................................................................ 89 IV. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION .................................................................. 95 IV.1. Implications on Counter-Narcotic Strategies ............................................................... 96 V. REFERENCES ....................................................................................................... 98 VI. APPENDICES ................................................................................................... 102 VI.1. TABLES AND CLARIFYING DOCUMENTATION .................................................................. 102 VI.2. DATA FILES .................................................................................................................... 102 2 This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. I. Abstract The focus of this study was to estimate the size of synthetic drug production (methamphetamine in particular) in Quebec, Canada, assess its export potential, and explore implications for counter-narcotics policies. Research on drug trafficking in the U.S. has mostly centered on Latin America—particularly Mexico—in recent years due to widely publicized violence. However, there have been well documented cases of drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) in Canada, such as the Hells Angels and Asian gangs, that produce and transport large quantities of cannabis and amphetamine-type stimulants (ATS) into the U.S. Official reports from both countries and the United Nations suggest that Canada is becoming a major global supplier of synthetic drugs. But little empirical research has been conducted to verify these claims or to estimate the size of the drug trade. Estimating the production and trafficking of any illicit drugs is a daunting endeavor because conventional sampling or statistical procedures are inadequate. However, without reliable empirical knowledge, policy making becomes problematic. Innovative methods therefore must be used to acquire the information in a systematic, albeit incremental, manner. In this study, we used capture-recapture sampling and multiple data sources to gauge this “hidden market” and its impact on the U.S. drug market. The scientific as well as policy implications of this empirical effort cannot be overstated at a time when there is a resurgence of high-quality synthetic drugs in the U.S. Policy makers and law enforcement agencies are searching for valid empirical measures to marshal resources to mount counter measures. The specific objectives of this study were as follows: 1. What is the scale of production and consumption of ATS in Quebec Canada, based on capture-recapture sampling and analysis of official data? 2. What is the difference between production and consumption, assuming any surplus is intended for export to other North American markets? 3. How are these drugs manufactured in Quebec (using lab records of chemical composition assays of seized drugs to establish the origin of production)? 4. What are the organizational characteristics of those involved in the production and distribution of methamphetamine and other synthetic drugs in Quebec? 5. What threats do these criminal organizations pose to both the U.S. and Canada, and what policy implications can be drawn from our impact estimates? This study capitalized on existing data sources and field research opportunities already established by our Canadian colleagues. We had access to data sources of multiple years, which are necessary for repeated sampling of the target population. The capture-recapture method specified in this proposal has been around for many years but have rarely been applied to organized crime research, particularly impact assessment. Based on our findings, it appears that the same method can be applied to assess the impact of other illicit commodities or enterprising activities because inference to larger populations is possible under theoretical and empirical assumptions. Findings from this joint effort by U.S.- and Canada-based researchers provide much needed empirical guidance to policy makers of federal and local governments of both countries. 3 This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report has not been