Communications Strategies and Challenges Before, During and After Severe Weather How the National Weather Service is Improving Public Information Jim Maczko NOAA National Weather Service 2020 Michigan’s Statewide Interoperable Communications Conference Our Current Session Agenda As of February 6, 2020 ☺ Our Current Session Agenda As of February 6, 2020 ☺ Longest Title on the Agenda! 19 Words 6 Words with 3 or more syllables 127 characters with no spaces 144 characters with spaces Shortest and Best Title Agenda As of February 6, 2020 ☺ Everyone Knows… Meteorologists Can Be Wrong ALL THE TIME and Keep Their Jobs The Perfect Answer Does Not Exist The Perfect Answer Does Not Exist The Perfect Answer Does Not Exist Everyone Also Knows… You Can Always Count on Scientists to… Communicate Effectively “Blah Blah Big Word. Blah Blah Bigger Word. Blah Blah Blah Biggest Word.” “Let’s Move On” Scientists Tend To… Need Structure & Rules Over-Explain EVERYTHING! Live Inside Our Own Bubble Believe Everyone Shares Our Passion Meteorologists - Need of Structure & Rules Helped The National Weather Service Build Watch, Warning, Advisories 100 + Ways to Say Watch Out! or Take Action! Specific Criteria for Each Product X amount of snow or X mph winds Black and White Decision Points Not Based on Impacts of Weather Meteorologists – OVER-Explain Everything We Usually Lead With the WHY of Weather System relative isentropic ascent up the 700-600mb extension of sloped baroclinic zone has led to persistent light snow and haze from roughly the DTW airfield back to the west over Southwest Michigan. Model data shows higher theta e content feeding up this frontal surface will be stripped out to the east. As a result should see a diminishing trend to already light snow activity during the remainder of the morning hours. “I’m Glad “Let’s Move On” Everyone Got It” Meteorologists – OVER-Explain Everything We Usually Lead With the WHY of Weather System relative isentropic ascent up the 700-600mb extension of sloped baroclinic zone has led to persistent light snow and haze from roughly the DTW airfield back to the west over Southwest Michigan. Model data shows higher theta e content feeding up this frontal surface will be stripped out to the east. As a result should see a diminishing trend to already light snow activity during the remainder of the morning hours. “I’m Glad “Let’s Move On” Everyone Got It” Meteorologists – Live Inside Our Own Bubble Traditionally We Only Talk and Listen to Ourselves TV Weather “People Don’t Take TORNADO WARNING seriously” Universities NWS NWS NWS “Let’s Create Weather TORNADO WARNING EMERGENCIES” Weenies NWS NOTE: YES!!! Meteorologists Know Their Bubble is a CLOUD! Meteorologists – Believe Everyone Shares Our Passion And They Like When We OVER-Complicate Things “I’m Glad “Let’s Move On” Everyone Got It” So How Do You Adapt Communication When Your System Has Been Around Forever? And When So Many Inside Your Bubble A well-oiled machine since 1870 Think Communication is Working Perfectly? You Need a Game Changer (or several) Deepwater Horizon Light Switch Moments to Shake Your Core NWS Not Known to Many People, Partners What TV Station Do You Work For? Partly Cloudy, 30% Chance of Rain Doesn’t Mean Squat to Anyone Severe Weather Isn’t Just Thunderstorms All Hazardous Weather = Severe Weather Needs are What, When, Where No One Really Needs WHY Weather happens Realized the Need to Adapt - Learn - Grow Refocus & Better Meet the Mission & Build a Weather-Ready Nation Weather-Ready Nation To Help Communities Become… ✓ Ready ✓ Responsive ✓Resilient To Increasing Vulnerabilities from Extreme Weather, Water, Climate Events, Environmental Hazards Catalyst for Bigger Change Public Law 115-25 - 115th Congress (April 18, 2017) Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 Defined Core Partners And Support Services Emergency Management Government Partners Community Water Resource Electronic Media Management Where Does the Weather Service Fit? Mitigation Traditionally Mostly in Response Some Preparedness Maybe Recovery Too (though we weren’t aware) Prevention Warnings and 7-day Forecasts Focused on Weather Leading Up to the Event ‘Bang’ Preparedness Our Storm Reports, Summaries Serving Only Us Response Now and The Future - Active in All Recovery With Service to Partner Needs Above Our Own Understand and Become Emergency Management Evolution in Storm Survey Methods Traditional Approach - For Us, By Us Where We Want, When We Want May or May Not Have Told Local EM - EVER Media Gets Info First – Local EM Finds Out Whenever, However Now and The Future - Partner with EM, Community Mostly Where/When EMs Need and Ask, Sometimes Where We Want Always Inform EM Before Heading Out - Keep EM Updated Throughout Media Gets Info After EMs – Coordinated Messaging, Public Information Plain Language + Simple Graphics What, Where, When Focus Keeping the Why To Ourselves Delivered Before Decisions Are Made Instead of When Model Data Comes In Recovery Weather & Impacts Supporting As We Get Back to Normal Changing How We Describe Weather Learning to Relate and Communicate Our Current Water Situation Great Lakes Drainage Record High Water Levels Changing How We Describe Weather Learning to Relate and Communicate SAY: The Sponge Is Full Old: Total Soil Saturation SAY: The Pipes Are Nearly Full Old: River System is at Max Capacity SAY: The Bathtub is Full Old: Great Lakes are at Record Levels Changing How We Describe Weather Learning to Relate and Communicate SAY: The Faucet Won’t Shut Off Old: Precipitation Pattern Abnormally Active SAY: Draining the Tub Takes Time Old: Streamflow to the Oceans is a Lengthy Process Leverage Emerging Technology Wireless Tornado Warning Emergency Alerts 2012 Flash Flood Warning Targeted Phones Blizzard Warning Hit People Where They Are At! Ice Storm Warning Biggest Advancement in Weather Warnings Since NOAA Weather Radio Tsunami Warning Emerging Technology – Wireless Alerts Tornado Warning Flash Flood Warning Blizzard Warning Ice Storm Warning Tsunami Warning February 7, 2013: 45 Hours Long Emerging Technology – Wireless Alerts Tornado Warning Flash Flood Warning Blizzard Warning Ice Storm Warning Tsunami Warning February 7, 2013: 45 Hours Long Emerging Technology – Wireless Alerts Tornado Warning Flash Flood Warning Snow Squall Warning Tsunami Warning Fall 2018 Debut Meant for People on Major Roads/Highways Emerging Technology – Wireless Alerts Jan 8, 2020 NWS Mt Holly – 12 Warnings Total Population Warned: 9.5 Million Tornado Warning Flash Flood Warning Snow? Squall? Warning? Tsunami Warning One Warning For: 2.5 Million People Emerging Technology – Wireless Alerts More Changes to Come Tornado Warning Flash Flood Warning (NWS saying 80% reduction of WEA 2020 and beyond) Snow Squall Warning (will it stay or will it go?) Severe Thunderstorm Warning (2020 or 2021?) Tsunami Warning The Perfect Answer Does Not Exist The Perfect Answer Does Not Exist The Perfect Answer Does Not Exist Thank You! Safe Travels!.