ASSESSING THE INFLUENCE OF WEATHER IN 5 U.S. CITIES DURING WINTERTIME HIGH MORTALITY DAYS A thesis submitted to Kent State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts by Michael James Allen December, 2010 Thesis written by Michael James Allen B.S., California University of Pennsylvania, 2008 M.A., Kent State University, 2010 Approved by ______________________, Dr. Scott Sheridan, Advisor ______________________, Dr. Mandy Munro-Stasiuk, Chair, Department of Geography ______________________, Dr. Timothy Moerland, Dean, College of Arts and Sciences ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF FIGURES........................................................................................................ vii LIST OF TABLES.......................................................................................................... ix ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS............................................................................................. xii CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 2 BACKGROUND...................................................................................................... 5 2.1 Weather Mortality..................................................................................... 5 2.1.1 Biological Causes................................................................................ 5 2.1.2 Socio-Economic, Demographic, and Behavioral Factors.................... 7 2.1.3 The Lag Effect and Mortality Harvesting............................................ 9 2.2 Defining Winter Weather…........................................................................ 11 2.3 Winter Mortality Studies............................................................................ 12 2.3.1 Spatial Variability................................................................................ 12 2.3.2 Climate-Health Relationships............................................................. 13 2.3.3. Indices and Models............................................................................ 15 iii CHAPTER 3 DATA AND METHODOLODY.................................................................................. 18 3.1 Data............................................................................................................ 18 3.1.1 Study Region and Demographics........................................................ 18 3.1.2 Mortality Data.................................................................................... 21 3.1.3 Atmospheric Data............................................................................... 22 3.1.4 Map Comparison................................................................................ 24 3.2 Methodology.............................................................................................. 24 3.2.1 Mortality Methods......................................................................... 24 3.3 Data Analysis.............................................................................................. 25 3.4 Methodology Summary............................................................................. 28 CHAPTER 4 RESULTS................................................................................................................ 30 4.1 Demographics............................................................................................ 30 4.1.1 A Monthly Comparison of Mortality Spikes........................................ 30 4.1.2 Mortality Spikes: Causes of Death...................................................... 31 4.1.3 Mortality Spikes: Age Categories........................................................ 34 4.1.4 Mortality Spikes: Race Categories...................................................... 36 4.1.5 Mortality Spikes: Gender Comparisons.............................................. 38 4.2 Temperature (δT, δT1day , δT3day) ............................................................. 40 4.2.1 Minneapolis-St. Paul........................................................................... 40 4.2.2 Pittsburgh........................................................................................... 43 4.2.3 St. Louis...............................................................................................46 4.2.4 San Antonio........................................................................................ 49 4.2.5 Miami.................................................................................................. 52 4.3 Pressure (δP, δP1day , Min/Max) ................................................................ 55 4.3.1 Minneapolis-St. Paul........................................................................... 55 iv 4.3.2 Pittsburgh........................................................................................... 59 4.3.3 St. Louis...............................................................................................61 4.3.4 San Antonio........................................................................................ 64 4.3.5 Miami.................................................................................................. 67 4.4 Precipitation and Snowfall......................................................................... 71 4.4.1 Minneapolis-St. Paul........................................................................... 71 4.4.2 Pittsburgh........................................................................................... 73 4.4.3 St. Louis...............................................................................................75 4.4.4 San Antonio........................................................................................ 77 4.4.5 Miami.................................................................................................. 79 4.5 Spatial Synoptic Classification.................................................................... 80 4.5.1 Minneapolis-St. Paul........................................................................... 80 4.5.2 Pittsburgh........................................................................................... 82 4.5.3 St. Louis...............................................................................................84 4.5.4 San Antonio........................................................................................ 86 4.5.5 Miami.................................................................................................. 89 4.6 Map Comparisons...................................................................................... 92 CHAPTER 5 DISCUSSION.......................................................................................................... 100 5.1 Synthesis of Results.................................................................................... 100 5.2 Weather on Spike and Non-Spike Days...................................................... 101 5.3 Cause of Death and Demographic Factors................................................. 104 5.4 Variability between Cities.......................................................................... 105 5.5 Seasonality and Lag Effect.......................................................................... 106 5.6 Limitations to Research.............................................................................. 107 v CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSION........................................................................................................ 109 BIBLIOGRAPHY...................................................................................................... 113 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Lag and Mortality Effect............................................................................ 10 Figure 2: Temperature-Mortality Relationship........................................................ 14 Figure 3: MSA: Study Area....................................................................................... 19 Figure 4: Temperature Graph: 1.5 SD Minneapolis-St. Paul.................................... 42 Figure 5: Temperature Graph: 2.0 SD Minneapolis- St. Paul.................................... 43 Figure 6: Temperature Graph: 1.5 SD Pittsburgh..................................................... 45 Figure 7: Temperature Graph: 2.0 SD Pittsburgh..................................................... 46 Figure 8: Temperature Graph: 1.5 SD St. Louis........................................................ 48 Figure 9: Temperature Graph: 2.0 SD St. Louis........................................................ 49 Figure 10: Temperature Graph: 1.5 SD San Antonio................................................ 51 Figure 11: Temperature Graph: 2.0 SD San Antonio................................................ 51 Figure 12: Temperature Graph: 1.5 SD Miami......................................................... 53 Figure 13: Temperature Graph: 2.0 SD Miami......................................................... 54 Figure 14: Pressure Graph: 1.5 SD Minneapolis-St. Paul.......................................... 57 Figure 15: Pressure Graph: 2.0 SD Minneapolis- St. Paul......................................... 58 vii Figure 16: Pressure Graph: 1.5 SD Pittsburgh.......................................................... 60 Figure 17: Pressure Graph: 2.0 SD Pittsburgh.......................................................... 61 Figure 18: Pressure Graph: 1.5 SD St. Louis............................................................. 63 Figure