CASH DEPARTMENT COUNTERFEIT CURRENCY REPORT January-June 2019 July 2019 Counterfeit Currency Report – January–June 2019 National Bank of Serbia Contents: 1. Expert analysis of banknotes and coins ....................................................... 2 2. Expert analysis of foreign currency banknotes ............................................ 4 3. Ratio of counterfeit dinar to foreign currency banknotes ............................ 6 1 Counterfeit Currency Report – January–June 2019 National Bank of Serbia 1. Expert analysis of banknotes and coins In the first half of this year, expertise of suspected counterfeit banknotes showed that a total of 1,924 notes were counterfeits, which is 5.9% less than in the same period last year, when a total of 2,045 false banknotes were detected. However, given the greater number of higher denominations, the nominal value increased by 12.2% (RSD 2,366,900.00 in the first six months of 2019 compared to RSD 2,109,270.00 in the same period of 2018). Table 1 shows the denomination structure of detected dinar counterfeits. Table 1 Dinar banknote counterfeits, January–June 2019 (pieces) Denomination 5000 2000 1000 500 200 100 50 Total Pieces 16 578 943 373 1 11 2 1.924 Share in % 0,8 30 49 19,4 0,1 0,6 0,1 100 Source: National Bank of Serbia. In terms of the denomination structure of detected dinar counterfeits, the 1000-, 2000- and 500-dinar banknotes accounted for the dominant share (Chart 1). Percentage-wise, these three denominations made up 98.4% of the overall number of dinar counterfeits. Chart 1 Denomination structure of dinar banknote counterfeits, January−June 2019 (pieces) 0,6% 0,1% 0,1% 0,8% 19,4% 30% 49% 50 100 200 500 1000 2000 5000 Source: National Bank of Serbia. Chart 2 illustrates the trends observed over the last nine years in terms of the number of detected counterfeits of these three most frequent dinar denominations. 2 Counterfeit Currency Report – January–June 2019 National Bank of Serbia Chart 2 The most frequent dinars counterfeits (pieces) 8000 7.213 7000 6000 5000 4000 2.808 2.770 3000 2.531 2.330 2.106 2.087 1.782 2000 1.590 1.510 860 2.115 1.267 1.199 1000 1.562 1.729 1.382 1.435 1.372 725 1.114 964 794 0 741 350 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 500-dinar 1000-dinar 2000-dinar Source: National Bank of Serbia. In value terms, the 2000- and 1000-dinar banknotes made up the largest share of the dinar counterfeit structure (Table 2 and Chart 3). In percentage terms, these two denominations accounted for 88.7% of all dinar counterfeits. Table 2 Dinar banknote counterfeits, January–June 2019 (RSD thousand) Denomination 5000 2000 1000 500 200 100 50 Total Pieces 80 1.156 943 186,5 0,2 1,1 0,1 2.366,9 Share in % 3,4 48,9 39,8 7,9 0 0 0 100 Source: National Bank of Serbia. Chart 3 Denomination structure of dinar banknote counterfeits, January−June 2019 (nominally) 0% 0% 0% 3,4% 7,9% 39,8% 48,9% 50 100 200 500 1000 2000 5000 Source: National Bank of Serbia. A comparison of the number of detected dinar counterfeits with that of genuine dinar banknotes in circulation reveals that 5.2 pieces in every 1 million circulating banknotes were found to be counterfeit, i.e. of RSD 1 bn in circulation, RSD 10,302.2 of counterfeit money was identified. 3 Counterfeit Currency Report – January–June 2019 National Bank of Serbia 2. Expert analysis of foreign currency banknotes In the period January–June 2019, in the process of expert analysis of suspect counterfeits, 1015 foreign counterfeit banknotes were detected, 3.2 times more than in the same period in 2018 when 321 foreign counterfeit banknotes were identified. Their currency and denomination structure is presented in Table 3. Тable 3 Foreign currency banknote counterfeits, January–June 2019 (pieces) Currency ЕUR Total USD Total Other Total EUR USD Denomination 500 200 100 50 20 10 100 50 20 Pieces 9 6 784 67 10 4 880 101 1 1 103 32 1.015 Share in % 0,9 0,6 77,2 6,6 1 0,4 86,7 10 0,1 0,1 10,2 3,1 100 Source: National Bank of Serbia. A total of 880 counterfeit euro banknotes were detected during the period observed, three times more than in the same period last year, when 289 of such banknotes were detected. The ratio between the number of the most frequently detected euro counterfeits – 100- and 50-euro banknotes over the last nine years is presented in Chart 4. Chart 4 The most frequent euro counterfeits (pieces) 1.200 966 1.081 1.023 1.000 776 800 535 600 511 734 400 295 323 227 159 200 133 118 239 243 299 197 129 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 50-euro 100-euro Source: National Bank of Serbia. In the first six months of this year, a total of 103 counterfeit US dollar banknotes were detected, which is 4.9 times more than in the same period last year, when 21 dollar banknotes were established to be counterfeit. It was almost exclusively the 100- dollar note that was falsified. Chart 5 shows movements in the number of detected 100-dollar counterfeits over the last nine years. 4 Counterfeit Currency Report – January–June 2019 National Bank of Serbia Chart 5 The most frequent US-dollar counterfeit (pieces) 1.600 1.572 1.400 1.193 1.200 1.000 800 504 600 400 266 94 107 141 105 200 74 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 100-dollar Source: National Bank of Serbia. The item “Other” in Table 3 refers to fake banknotes in four different currencies: German mark (27 pieces), pound sterling (two pieces), Bosnian convertible mark (two pieces), and Swiss franc (one piece). In nominal value terms, the share of individual currencies in total detected foreign currency counterfeits and their percentage vis-à-vis the figures from a year earlier are best illustrated if expressed in euros,1 as shown in Chart 6. Chart 6 Foreign currency banknote counterfeits, January−June 2018 and 2019 (EUR thousand) 100 90 87,7 80 70 I-VI 60 2019 50 40 34,5 30 20 9,0 10 1,7 0,5 2,4 0 EUR USD Other EUR USD Other Source: National Bank of Serbia. 1 For conversion of other currencies into euros, for the years of 2018 and 2019 we applied the middle exchange rate as at 3 July 2019. 5 Counterfeit Currency Report – January–June 2019 National Bank of Serbia 3. Ratio of counterfeit dinar to foreign currency banknotes Chart 7 shows the ratio of the number of detected dinar to foreign currency counterfeit banknotes in the total detected counterfeits for the period January–June 2019. Chart 7 Currency structure of banknote counterfeits detected in January−June 2019 (pieces) 32 103 880 1.924 RSD EUR USD Other Source: National Bank of Serbia. As shown, the share of counterfeit dinar banknotes (65.5%) exceeds the share of all detected foreign currency counterfeits. However, in nominal value terms, the share of individual currencies in total counterfeits in the first half of 2019 is best illustrated if expressed in dinars2 (Chart 8). Chart 8 Currency structure of banknote counterfeits detected in January ̶ June 2019 (RSD thousand) 279,9 1.061,7 2.366,9 10.335,2 RSD EUR USD Other Source: National Bank of Serbia. The euro (73.6%), followed by the dinar (16.9%) and the US dollar (7.6%) took up the dominant share in total discovered counterfeits. 2 For conversion of other currencies into the dinar we applied the middle exchange rate as at 3 July 2019. 6 .