28 January 2015 As went the Institutions, so went the Transition: lessons for Zimbabwe from Zambia’s 2015 Presidential Succession Politics Written by Dr Phillan Zamchiya and McDonald Lewanika 1 As went the Institutions, so went the Transition: Lessons for Zimbabwe from Zambia’s 2015 Presidential Succession Politics KEY QUESTIONS How did Zambia resolve the Presidential succession question? What were the critical enablers of the peaceful transition and what role did they play? What is the state of such critical enablers in Zimbabwe and can they enable a democratic transition? What needs to be done to strengthen the transitional institutions? 2 Contents KEY QUESTIONS........................................................................ 2 ABSTRACT ................................................................................ .4 1. BACKGROUND ..................................................................... 4 2. INTRODUCTION .................................................................... 6 3. METHODS .......................................................................... 6 4. WHAT WERE THE CRITICAL ENABLERS OF ZAMBIA’S TRANSITION? ............ 7 4.1 THE JUDICIARY ........................................................................ 7 4.2 POLITICAL PARTIES ................................................................... 9 4.3 THE MILITARY ........................................................................ 11 4.4 INFORMAL INSTITUTIONS ........................................................... 12 4.5 CIVIL SOCIETY ....................................................................... 13 4.6 MEDIA ................................................................................. 15 4.7 REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL .................................................... 16 5. WHAT IS THE STATE OF CRITICAL TRANSITIONING INSTITUTIONS IN ZIMBABWE? 18 5.1 THE JUDICIARY ....................................................................... 18 5.2 INFORMAL INSTITUTIONS ............................................................ 20 5.3 THE MILITARY ........................................................................ 22 5.4 POLITICAL PARTIES .................................................................. 23 5.5 CIVIL SOCIETY ....................................................................... 25 5.6 MEDIA ................................................................................. 27 5.7 REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL .................................................... 28 6. STRENGTHENING ZIMBABWE’S TRANSITIONING INSTITUTIONS ............. 31 3 ABSTRACT Why is it that some post-colonial African countries experience constant successful democratic transitions from one ruler to another while others face blocked transitions? We argue that the democraticness of state and non-state institutions is the key differential factor. This is based on our comparative case studies of Zambia and Zimbabwe, where the former enjoy successful transitions because in practice it has more inclusive and independent institutions that support democracy than the later which has extractive and partisan ones. We demonstrate this through a macro analysis of the nature and state of critical enablers of a democratic transition in each of the two aforementioned countries. In particular, these are the judiciary, political parties, military, media, civil society, election management bodies and informal institutions. From the premise of our argument, we recommend that democratic actors (civil society) in failed Zimbabwe must encompass programmes that are driven by the will to transform society from below. Any short cuts will be building on quick and soft sand and will fail the hard test of enabling a solid and durable democratic transition even at a critical juncture of what might appear a great opportunity. 1. BACKGROUND Zimbabwe faces a herculean task of managing the country’s first complex succession politics from more than three decades of President Robert Gabriel Mugabe’s iron ruleto a new leader in the not so distant future. Even though Schedule 6 (Section 14) of the Zimbabwe constitution is crystal clear in terms of the transitional provisions in the event of death, resignation, incapacity or removal from office of the incumbent it is the real hard politics of succession that demands a continued search for a practical way of attaining a peaceful and democratic transition especially from the grip of entrenched authoritarian institutions and practices. This was evident in Zimbabwe’s failure to ensure democratic transfer of power from Mugabe to the winner of the 29th of March 2008 presidential election. The Zimbabwean President is 91 years old, his health is said to be deteriorating and even these become non-factors the constitution only allows him to seek one more term of office in 2018. This reality signifies that Zimbabwe is officially in a transitional era from Mugabe’s rule to the unknown. The consequences areevident in the internecine politics within the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union Patriotic Front (ZANU PF) where life has become ‘nasty, brutal and short’. The party is under threat of explosion from the succession centrifugal forces as factions jostle to strategically position for the unavoidable succession of Mugabe. Following a number of blocked transitions on the African continent, what are the critical enablers of a peaceful transition? This brief adds to national debate using evidence from Zambia’s sixth post- colonial transition from one President to another and recommends a possible role for civil society in Zimbabwe in defining the path for Zimbabwe.1 1Note that the paper is based on a 6 day field observation in Zambia by a team of five people under the auspices of the Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition and Election Resource Centre. Hence the paper is meant to generate debate rather than be conclusive. 4 Zambia is a particularly interesting case study because it held its Presidential by- elections on 20 January 2015 in a peaceful and relatively democratic manner. This was the sixth time Zambia has had a democratic transition from one President to another in the post-colonial era. By a democratic transition we mean a situation when there is a competitive, free and fair electoral environment that leads to a legitimately elected leader peacefully and constitutionally taking over state power from the incumbent like in the election of Soglo in the March 1991 election in Benin. In Zambia, the office of the President was first held by Kenneth Kaunda on 24 October 1964following independence from British colonial rule. Kaunda was democratically succeeded by Frederick Chiluba on 2 November 1991 following a general election. Chiluba was replaced by Levy Mwanawasa in an election on 2 January 2002 after serving two terms as prescribed by the constitution. Mwanawasa died in office and Rupiah Banda constitutionally took over as Acting President. Banda subsequently lost an election and was replaced by Michael Sata who took over on 23 September 2011. However, Sata died in office on 28 October 2014 and Guy Scott assumed office as Acting President. Scott could only act for 90 days as prescribed in the constitution, hence the Presidential by-election on 20 January 2015 where 11 candidates contested to fill the vacant seat of President, with Lungu emerging with a 48,3% victory. The most important point here is that Zambia, like South Africa, has managed a consistent democratic transition from one President to another and there are lessons to be learnt for the region in general and Zimbabwe in particular. The following picture shows Zambia’s Presidents since attaining independence in 1964. Picture 1: Zambia’s elected presidents 1964-2015 5 2. INTRODUCTION While Zambia’s post-colonial transition and turnover of leadership in a largely peaceful and democratic manner has been hailed as a model for Africa, and generated envy from Zimbabweans in general and civil society in particular, not enough time and energy has been invested in trying to understand the transitioning critical enablers and their functions. We posit in this paper, that constitutional clarity without constitutionalism does not lead to a successful transition, but that the disposition and practice of the following institutions - judiciary, political parties, military, civil society, media, elections management body and informal institutions- function to either enable or disable transitions, and that the role they play accounts for the successful transitions in Zambia. The Zambian experience in the run up to the January 20 2015 Presidential by-election showed that the democraticness of these institutions in rules and practice define the transitional path and its inherent outcome. As such, while the disposition has to be positive, it does not always follow that all these institutions have to be loud or quiet in their actions and articulations but simply democratic. Additionally, although the bulk of focus in transitions of this nature is often on elections, which Pastor argues as presenting transitions with their moment of greatest promise2, we acknowledge that the EMBs are a critical enabler, but add that their role is probably the late delivery point of the transition, and can be a fait accompli if we do not account for the actions and disposition, prior to the election and after it, of the other critical enablers listed above.3 Having identified the critical enablers as listed above, what role did they play in the latest of Zambian transition from one national President