JUNE 2020 AAPDA SAMVAADSAMVAADAAPDA TheThe Summersummer ofof CyclonesCyclones IN THE NEWS Tremors in NCR NO NEED TO PANIC, SAY EXPERTS n view of the recent seismic activities in Following the meeting, the NDMA has requested the Delhi-NCR region, a meeting was convened States to take the following measures: Iby the National Disaster Management i. Ensure compliance of building bye laws to Authority (NDMA) on 10th June 2020, to discuss the make upcoming constructions earthquake various mitigation and preparedness measures to resilient and to avoid addition of vulnerable reduce the earthquake risk in Delhi-NCR region. building stock. Dr. B K Bansal, Director of the National Centre ii. Identify the vulnerable priority structures, for Seismology (NCS), said there is no need to panic especially lifeline buildings, and retrofit them. with respect to the recent seismic activities in Delhi- Private buildings should also be retrofitted to NCR region. But it is important to undertake reduce the risk in a phased manner, wherever preparedness and mitigation measures to reduce the required. earthquake risk, he underlined. Dr. Bansal was iii. Conduct regular mock exercises to deal with speaking at a meeting convened by the National earthquakes in future and come out with SoPs Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) here for immediate response after an earthquake yesterday to discuss the various mitigation and iv. Undertake the public awareness programmes preparedness measures to reduce the earthquake risk regarding do's and don'ts with regard to in Delhi-NCR region. earthquakes. Director, NCS informed that given the seismic The meeting was attended through Voice history of Delhi and its vicinity, the occurrence of Conferencing (VC) by NDMA Members, Director minor earthquakes in Delhi-NCR is not unusual. General, National Disaster Response Force and However, there is no proven technology in the world senior officers of Government of NCT of Delhi, wherein earthquakes are predicted with certainty in Rajasthan, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh.• terms of its location, time and magnitude. AAPDA SAMVAAD | JUNE 2020 2 COVER STORY The Summer of Cyclones Case Study of India's effective preparedness and response mphan, meaning “sky”, the cyclone severity of the situation, and what must be done on that originated as a deep depression in ground, NDMA rapidly began its cyclone awareness Athe Bay Of Bengal became the most campaigns and updated every bulletin released on severe cyclonic storm after the 1999 Odisha Cyclone the calamity on Social Media. NDMA launched an to hit Odisha and West Bengal. Cyclone Amphan awareness campaign in the states of Odisha and West was exactly as the India Meteorological Department Bengal through Television and Radio, disseminating predicted, and the country was prepared. Do's & Don'ts during a cyclone. Amidst the ongoing COVID-19 Pandemic, a In the meeting at the Prime Minister's Office, the super cyclone was definitely not something India Prime Minister took full stock of the situation and needed. Paradip (Odisha) and Digha (West Bengal) reviewed the response preparedness as well as the were in line for the storm, and the National Disaster evacuation plan presented by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) got into action just Response Force (NDRF). During the presentation of as the prediction by IMD was made. It was time to the response plan, DG NDRF informed that 25 bring into effect all our years of cyclone risk NDRF teams have been deployed on the ground mitigation and preparedness in order to reduce risk while 12 others were ready in reserve. 24 other and ensure safety to those in the affected areas. Apart NDRF teams were also on standby in different parts from attending the meeting with the Honourable of the country. By 17th May 2020, the Odisha Prime Minister, Shri Narendra Modi, to discuss the Disaster Rapid Action Force and National Disaster AAPDA SAMVAAD | JUNE 2020 3 COVER STORY Response Force (NDRF) were pre-positioned across by the cyclone included damage to the rice paddies districts in Odisha and West Bengal to assist in and vegetable and sesame fields, along with major preparations for Amphan and render aid where power cuts in the areas affected. necessary. The additional units on standby could be While natural hazards such as a cyclone is not readily airlifted to affected areas with Indian Air something we have control over, but India's Force transport aircraft. Considering the pandemic, readiness and response to Cyclone Amphan during these crews and other first responders also needed the COVID Era proved that we are an adaptable, personal protective equipment (PPE) and face forward-thinking, disaster prepared nation which covers. A diving team from the Indian Navy was sent has, once again, emerged stronger when posed with a to Kolkata to aid relief efforts, with ships from the challenge.. The livelihoods of hundreds of locals, navy placed on standby for relief operations. and their families, have been saved. This has From the point of inception on 13th May 2020 to certainly proven one thing - communities can come its landfall on 20th May 2020, how effective was our together and become one, when faced with calamity. preparedness to take on the super cyclonic storm? It is so, as while there is life - there is hope! Cyclone Amphan peaked on 18 May 2020 to upto 240 kmph - 260 kmph wind speed, and made its landfall in Digha. West Bengal on 20th May 2020 as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm with a speed of 155- 165 kmph. Over 2 Million people were evacuated in India, approximately 40,000 from Sagar Islands and approximately 50,000 from Sunderbans, and they were provided shelter, while maintaining physical distance. Coastal areas of Odisha, as well as Kolkata, Hooghly, Howrah, East Midnapur, North 24 Parganas, and South 24 Parganas in West Bengal, were among the affected areas. Despite being the strongest tropical cyclone to strike the Ganges Delta since the 2007 Cyclone Sidr, the powerful and deadly Cyclone Amphan, India's preparedness contained the loss of lives to just double digits, which was mostly due to electrocution or collapse of homes. The mass destruction caused AAPDA SAMVAAD | JUNE 2020 4 COVER STORY The Chronology of India's accurate Early Warnings on Cyclone Amphan Ÿ In the extended range outlook issued on 7th May, Cyclogenesis was predicted in the later part of week during 8th-14th May 2020. Ÿ In the regional bulletin for 13 WMO/ESCAP Panel member countries (Tropical Weather Outlook) issued on 9th May, it was indicated that a low pressure area (LPA) would form over the southeast BoB on 13th May (96 hours prior to formation of LPA). Ÿ In the Tropical Weather Outlook issued on 11th May, it was indicated that cyclogenesis (formation of depression) would occur around 16th May (48 hours prior to formation of LPA & 120 hours prior to formation of depression) over BoB. Ÿ In the first press release and special message issued on 13th May (on the day of development of LPA and 3 days prior to formation of depression), it was indicated that the system would intensify West Bengal coast with maximum sustained into a cyclonic storm by 16 th evening and would wind speed of 155-165 kmph gusting to 180 move initially northwestwards till 17th and then kmph. recurve north-northeastwards towards north Ÿ In the bulletin issued at 0845 hrs IST of 17th May BoB. (80hrs prior to landfall), it was precisely Ÿ In the bulletin issued at 0845 IST of 16th May mentioned that the system would cross West (104 hrs prior to landfall) with the formation of Bengal-Bangladesh coasts between Sagar Island Depression, it was indicated that the system (West Bengal) and Hatiya Islands (Bangladesh would intensify into a cyclone and will move coast) during afternoon to evening of 20th May north-northwestwards till 17th May followed by with maximum sustained wind speed of 155-165 north-northeastwards movement towards West kmph gusting to 185 kmph. Bengal coast during 18th-20th May and cross AAPDA SAMVAAD | JUNE 2020 5 COVER STORY Cyclone Nisarga No sooner had the country seen a major severe states of Maharashtra and Gujarat, evacuating one cyclone on the east coast, news of yet another lakh people, including Coronavirus patients, ahead cyclone arrived via India Meteorological of time. Department – this time on the Western Coast. The By the time severe Cyclone Nisarga made first news of a development of a low pressure area landfall in Maharashtra on the afternoon of 3rd June over southeast Arabian Sea was issued 10 days prior 2020, the speed had reduced to 100-110 kmph and to its formation over the southeast and adjoining east the impact of the cyclone on Mumbai, fortunately, central Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep on 31st May was less severe. Even though power lines disrupted, 2020. It was about 77 hours prior to the landfall that houses and roads damaged in Raigad, Mumbai and IMD issued its first bulletin indicating that the Thane, lives lost were in single digits. It was yet system would intensify into a cyclonic storm and another success story of accurate forecast, solid reach north Maharashtra and Gujarat coasts by 3rd preparedness and quick pre-emptive action. June. However, the National Disaster Management Authority got into action the day the prediction came out and immediately launched a Social Media Awareness campaign disseminating Do's & Don'ts during Cyclones, in order to empower citizens, and keep them prepared and safe. By 1st June 2020, IMD predicted that Cyclone Nisarga, meaning “Nature”, was to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm with maximum sustained wind speed of 105-115 kmph gusting to 125 kmph and cross north Maharashtra and south Gujarat coasts. India was prepared as we had just triumphed over another severe cyclone.