THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036-2188 Tel: 202-797-6000 Fax: 202-797-6004 www.brookin gs.edu Iraq Index Tracking Variables of Reconstruction & Security in Post-Saddam Iraq www.brookings.edu/iraqindex May 31, 2007 For full source information for entries other than the current month, please see the Iraq Index archives at www.brookings.edu/fp/saban/iraq/indexarchive.htm Michael E. O’Hanlon Jason H. Campbell For more information please contact Jason Campbell at [email protected] TABLE OF CONTENTS Tracking the Surge Page U.S. Troops Committed to the Surge……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..5 Number of New U.S. Troops Deployed to Baghdad……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..5 Proportion of U.S. Fatalities by Location, Pre- and Post-Surge………………………………………………………………………………………………..5 Additional Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRT’s), Personnel and Timeline for their Completion……………………………………………………...6 Iraqi Troops in Baghdad: Actual Number Reported for Duty as a Percentage of Proper Battalion Strength……………………………………………...6 Iraqi Military and Police Killed since January 2005……………………………………………………………………………………………..………...……7 Enemy-Initiated Attacks Against the Coalition and Its Partners………………………………………………………………………………....………….....7 Number of Patrols Carried Out by U.S. and Iraqi Forces (Per Week)…………………………………………………………………………………………8 Number of Joint Security Stations Established by U.S. and Iraqi Forces in Baghdad………………………………………………………………………..8 Civilian Deaths in Iraq Pre- and Post-Surge…………………………………..………………………………………………………………………………....9 Multiple Fatality Bombings by Type Since January 2007……………………………………………………………………………………………………….9 Number of Multiple Fatality Bombings Targeting Civilians by Sectarian Group and Month………………………………………………………………10 Number of Iraqi Civilian Deaths Associated with Multiple Fatality Bombings in which They were the Primary Target by Month………………..…...10 Trend of Extrajudicial Killings (EJK’s) in Baghdad from January-April 2007……………………………………………………………………………..11 Estimated Number of Extrajudicial Killings (EJK’s) in Baghdad, by Month………………………………………………………………………………..11 Estimated Number of Iraqi Civilians Killed by Month Since November 2006…………………………………..…………………………………………...12 Number of Newly Displaced People Per Month in Iraq, Externally and Abroad…………………………………………..………………………………..12 Effects of Operation Fardh al-Qanoon on Iraqi Provinces……………………………………………...……………………………………………………..12 Effects of External Actors on Iraqi Security……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………12 Progress of Political Benchmarks Agreed upon by the bush Administration and the Iraqi Government………………………………………………….13 Other Noteworthy Political Developments………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………13 Security Indicators U.S. Troop Fatalities since March 2003…….………………………………………………..………………….………………………………………..….…14 Cause of Death for US Troops……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………15 American Military Fatalities by Category………………………………………………………………….….…………………………………..…….……...16 U.S. Troops Wounded in Action since March 2003……………………………..…………….……………………………….……………………….………16 British Military Fatalities since March 2003………………………………….……………….…………………….................................................................17 Non-U.S. & U.K. Coalition Military Fatalities since March, 2003……………..….…………………….……………………….……………………………17 Non-U.S. & U.K. Coalition Military Fatalities by Country since March 2003…….…………………………………………………………………………18 Car Bombs in Iraq (Lethal and Non-Lethal)………………………….…………………………………………………..…………………………………....18 Iraqi Civilians Killed By Violence …………………………………………………………….…………………………..…………………………….………19 Multiple Fatality Bombings in Iraq………………………………………………..………..…………………………………..……………..……..………….20 Killed and Wounded in Multiple Fatality Bombings………………………………………………………………………………..………………………….20 Police and Civilian Deaths by Region…………………………………………………………………………………………..……………….………….……21 Non-Iraqi Civilian Casualties Killed Monthly since May 2003…………………..……………………………….....................................................................21 Journalists Killed in Iraq…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..………………..……………22 Nationalities of Journalists Killed in Iraq….……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..……..22 Circumstances of Journalist Deaths……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..22 Iraqis Kidnapped……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………......…………..….…22 Iraqi Civilians Killed by US Troops……………………………………………………………………………………………………….………...…………..22 Foreign Nationals Kidnapped in Iraq since May 2003……………………………………………………………………………………………..….……….23 Iraqi Prison Population………………………………………………………………………………………….……………………………….…….…………24 Estimated Strength of Insurgency Nationwide…………………….……………………………………………………………………………………...…….25 Estimated Number of Foreign Fighters in the Insurgency ………………………………………………………………………………………………….…26 Nationalities of Foreign Militants in Iraq, September 2005……………………………………………………………………………………………………26 Coalition Troop Strength in Iraq ………….………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…27 Distribution of the Army’s Authorized End Strength, By Component and Function, Fiscal Year 2005……………………………..………..……….…..28 Attacks on Iraqi Oil and Gas Pipelines, Installations, & Personnel …………………………………………………………………………………....……..28 Top Ten Non-U.S. Coalition Contributors of Military Personnel in Iraq………………………………………..…………………………………….……..29 Number of Daily Insurgent Attacks by Province……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….29 Number of Daily Attacks by Insurgents and Militias…………………………………………………………………………………………….….…...….....30 Average Weekly Attacks by Time Period: 1 January 2004 – 20 January 2006……………………………………………………………………….…...….30 U.S. Military Fatalities Caused by Improvised Explosive Devices…………………………………………………………………………………………….31 Number of Explosively Formed Projectile (EFP) Attacks Against U.S. Troops by Month………………………………………………………………….31 Improvised Explosive Devices (IED’s) Detonated And Disarmed January – June, 2006……………………………..………………………..……………32 Coalition Forces Ability to Find and Disarm Improvised Explosive Devises…………………………………………………………….……….…..…. …..32 Average Number of Daily Patrols and Violent Events in Baghdad………………………………………………………..…………………………………..32 American Military Helicopters Downed in Iraq ……………………………………………………………………………….……………….……..….….…33 Internally Displaced Persons in Iraq…………………………………………………………………………………………….…..………….…………….…33 Migration Indicators………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..…………………………….33 Refugees And Asylum Seekers……………………………………………………………………………………............…………………………….……..…33 Size of Iraqi Security Forces on Duty ………..……………………………………………………………………………………………………….…..……..34 Index of Political Freedom…………………………………………………………………………………………….……………….………………...….……35 Index of Press Freedom…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...35 Political Parties in Iraq………………………………………………………………………………………….……………………………..………..….…….36 Council Seats in New Iraqi Legislature……………………………………………………………………………………………..…………………..….……36 2 Economic & Quality of Life Indicators Fuel………….……………..……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….37 Oil Revenue from Exports……………………………………………………………………………………………………….…..…………….……………..38 Electricity………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…………………….……….….…………….39 Nationwide Unemployment Rate………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………………..……40 American Aid Appropriated, Obligated and Disbursed towards the Iraq Relief and Reconstruction Fund….…………..…………….……….………...41 Pledges of Reconstruction Aid to Iraq by Country, As of December 31, 2005……………………………………………………………………….……….42 Gross Domestic Product Estimates and Projections……………………………………………………..……………..………………………….……...……43 Annual Iraqi Budget and Actual Expenditures through August 2006………………………………………………………………………………………...43 Change in Iraq’s Debt, 2004 to 2006……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..43 Estimated Appropriations Provided for Operations in Iraq and the War on Terror; 2001-2007…………………………………………………………..44 Inflation………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………………….……………..44 Other Economic Indicators…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..……..…………..………..45 Trained Judges……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….……45 Telephone subscribers…………………..……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………..45 Internet subscribers……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………46 Media……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..………………………………..46 Doctors in Iraq………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………....………………….46 Number of Registered Cars………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………46 Current Water Projects Outputs Vs. CPA Goals……………………………………………………………………………………………………….…..…..47 Education Indicators – Enrollment……………………………………………………………………………………………….………...…………………...47 Polling/Politics Iraq: Where Things Stand 2007…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………48 Public Attitudes in Iraq: Four Year Anniversary of Invasion…………………………………………………………………………………………………50 September 27, 2006: World Opinion Poll.org – PIPA: The Iraqi Public on the US Presence and the Future of Iraq…………………………..……...….54 June 14 – 24, 2006: International Republican Institute……………………………………………………………....………………….…………….……….55 January 31, 2006: World Opinion Poll.org – What the Iraqi Public Wants…………………………………………………………………...……………..59 3 TRACKING THE SURGE MAY 30, 2007- Another month is over, and the basic US and Iraqi military inputs to the surge have now been almost entirely deployed. The picture that emerges from Iraq as summer