DEMOCRACY IN UKRAINE AFTER THE ORANGE REVOLUTION Youth Activists’ Insights on Past Events, Present Efficacy, and Future Prospects A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA BY Vitaliy Shyyan IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY R. Michael Paige, Adviser September 2008 © Vitaliy Shyyan 2008 i ACKNOWLDGEMENTS I would like to take this opportunity to thank and acknowledge the people who helped me through the entire dissertation process. Specifically, I would like to thank my adviser, Dr. R. Michael Paige, for supporting the idea of this study from day one and leading me through the process. His theoretical guidance and constructive feedback were crucial to my success. I extend many thanks to my other committee members. I would like to thank Dr. Gerald Fry for joining my committee at a later stage, providing sound advice, and keeping me on track. Likewise, I would like to thank Dr. Byron Schneider for consistent encouragement and support of the data collection process. I am deeply appreciative of Dr. Jean King for her constructive methodology advice and willingness to share her insight and wisdom. I would also like to thank Dr. Arthur Harkins for his valuable input and innovative perspective on the work and Dr. Deanne Magnusson for supporting my research and professional efforts. Special thanks are also due to the people whose support for the dissertation was indirect but just as vital. I am deeply indebted to Dr. Martha Thurlow who provided me with a flexible work schedule and empowered me with useful research skills. I also want to pay special tribute to my coworkers, particularly, Jane Krentz, Kristi Liu, and Dorene Scott. I wish to express my gratitude to my friends who provided all kinds of support during the long months that this thesis required. I would especially like to thank Suzanne Miri ć for inspiring this study, Matt Di Cintio for editorial advice, and Laurene Christensen and Christopher Rogers for moral support. Finally, I would like to thank my family for many years of support no matter whether we were on the same continent or different ones. This work would not be possible without continued encouragement from my mother Mariya, father Vasyl, sister Roksana, and grandmother Olha. Щиро дякую ! ii DEDICATION This dissertation is dedicated to the Ukrainians who bravely stood up for their freedom in the Orange Revolution and continue to assert themselves as a proud democratic European nation. iii ABSTRACT This study investigates the democratic developments in Ukraine beginning with the 2004 Orange Revolution. After its break-off from the Soviet empire, Ukraine began democratizing its systems but continues to struggle with remnants of its communist past. The non-violent Orange Revolution was a democratic breakthrough in the recent history of the country, and youth activists were key agents in the revolution. Their perceptions of the revolutionary events, political self-efficacy as one of the identifiers of civil society, and futures of democracy in Ukraine will help to depict the socio-political climate inside the country and in Europe. The dissertation employs three research methods: content analysis of extensive testimonials written by 19 youth activists (to generate information about youth activists’ socio-political experiences during and after the revolution), a survey of 76 youth activists (to collect demographic and political efficacy data), and Ethnographic Futures Research interviews with nine youth leaders (to extrapolate futures of democracy). Study findings on post-revolutionary developments are composed into 14 semantic themes that summarize youth activists’ perceptions. Political self-efficacy results indicate high levels of internal and task-oriented efficacy among youth activists. This study also provides extrapolations of optimistic, pessimistic, and most probable futures of the Ukrainian democracy as projected by youth leaders. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables vi List of Figures vii Chapter I: Introduction 1 Purpose of the Study 3 Research Questions 3 Background of the Study 4 Significance of the Study 5 Theoretical Framework 6 Research Methodology 6 Assumptions 7 Definitions of Terms 7 Organization of the Dissertation 8 Limitations of the Study 9 Chapter II: Literature Review 10 Ukraine Overview 10 Historical Background 16 Orange Revolution 21 Democratization Approaches 27 Political Self-efficacy 34 Youth Activism 39 Summary 46 Chapter III: Methodology 48 Research Questions 48 Research Methods 49 Data Collection 57 Data Analysis 65 Study Limitations 66 Summary 67 Chapter IV: Research Findings 68 Research Question I: Perceptions of the Orange Revolution 68 Research Question II: Political Self-efficacy 113 Research Question III: Visions of Ukraine’s Futures 134 Summary 158 Chapter V: Discussion 159 Essay Content Analysis 159 Self-efficacy Survey Analysis 165 Ethnographic Futures Research Analysis 170 v Summary 177 Chapter VI: Conclusions 178 Summary of Findings 178 Implications for Future Research 181 Directions of Ukraine’s Development 182 Appendix A. Study Instruments 186 Appendix A.1. Essay Outline 187 Appendix A.2. Survey of Political Efficacy 188 Appendix A.3. Ethnographic Futures Research Guidelines 190 Appendix B. Study Findings 191 Appendix B.1. Selected Essays 192 Appendix B.2. ANOVA Results by Demographic Variables 221 Appendix B.3. Ethnographic Futures Research Interview Summaries 224 References 243 vi LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Chronology of the Orange Revolution 22 Table 2. Democratization Approaches 32 Table 3. Participants’ Gender and Origin 64 Table 4. Political Self-efficacy Survey Results 115 Table 5. General Efficacy Scale 118 Table 6. Three Efficacy Sub-scales 120 Table 7. ANOVAs by Demographic Variables 122 Table 8. Facilitation and Prevention Strategies 173 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Participants’ Gender 59 Figure 2. Participants’ Age 60 Figure 3. Participants’ Level of Education 61 Figure 4. Influence of Education on Socio-political Activism 61 Figure 5. Participants’ Residence in Ukraine 62 Figure 6. Participants’ Organizational Affiliation 63 Figure 7. Difference by Youth Organization Membership 125 Figure 8. Difference by Gender 127 Figure 9. Difference by International Experience 128 Figure 10. Difference by Area of Residence 129 Figure 11. Difference by Perception of Education as an Activism Factor 131 Figure 12. Difference by Ethnicity 131 Figure 13. Difference by Language 132 Figure 14. Difference by Levels of Education 133 Figure 15. Difference by Location 134 1 CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION Over the last decades, a wave of drastic changes swept across Eastern Europe, liberalizing and decentralizing political regimes and ending five decades of the Cold War. Ukraine, as one of the largest countries of the region, was no exception to the processes, and in the recent past, the country underwent two major liberalization processes – its break-off from the Soviet empire in 1991 and its nonviolent democratic Orange Revolution in 2004. The revolution thrived on one of its key agents – youth political activism, which was inspired by previous velvet revolutions in Serbia (2000) and Georgia (2003) and, in its turn, continues to inspire parallel processes in other oppressed nation- states of the region. Yet, consequences of the revolution and prospects for democracy remain unclear in Ukraine’s volatile milieu. Democratization processes are time and effort consuming. Bratton and Van de Walle (1997) define establishment of democracy the following way: …the more or less total institutionalization of democratic practices, complete only when citizens and the political class alike come to accept democratic practices as the only way to resolve conflict. It requires that political actors so fully internalize the rules of the game that they can no longer imagine resorting to nonelectoral practices to obtain office. (p. 235) Ukraine does not meet all the requirements of a true democracy yet. Even though the country chose democracy over authoritarian rule, Ukraine is still hampered by the remains of its communist past and transitional challenges. Ukraine’s recent democratization developments provide a unique research opportunity to explore dynamics of democratization and the conditions that are essential for democratic evolution. 2 Youth activists played a pivotal role in promoting democratic values and resisting authoritarian tendencies during the Orange Revolution. There is little research on youth activists’ socio-political movements in Ukraine as well as on the level of their political efficacy and visions of the future. These issues are important both for the country’s national development and for the international community, particularly for some transitional countries that are attempting to follow Ukraine’s path of democratization. This study is designed to explore recent democratic processes in Ukraine and extrapolate their possible future developments. Specifically, it strives to investigate Ukrainian youth activists’ insights on the revolutionary and post-revolutionary events, political efficacy, and visions of the future. High levels of political efficacy indicate progressive democratic processes and are produced by such processes at the same time. Political efficacy remains a fairly unexplored phenomenon, particularly when it comes to such a key population stratum as youth activists. The vision of the future of Ukraine’s democracy as projected by Ukraine’s young leaders may contribute