Situation Assessement | 5 May 2020 Implications of Khalifa Haftar’s “Popular Mandate” to Rule Libya Unit for Political Studies Implications of Khalifa Hafaars “Popula Mandate” to Rule iiba Series: Situation Assessement 5 May 2020 Unit for Political Studies Tht Unit foa “olitical Stpnits is tht Ctnter’s ntpaatmtnt dedicated to tht study of tht regionrs most pressing current affaias. An inttgaal ann vital paat of tht AC “Sr activitits, it offtas acantmicallb aigoaops analbsis on isspts that are reltvant ann pstfpl to tht public, acantmics ann policb-maktas of tht Aaai region ann beyonn. Tht Unit foa “olitical Stpnit naaws on tht collaioaativt tffoats of a npmber of scholaas iased within ann optsint tht AC “S. It paoducts three of tht Ctnter’s publication staits: Asstssmtnt Repoat, “olicb Analbsis, ann Cast Analbsis repoats. Copyright © 2020 Aaai Ctntta foa Restaach ann “olicb Stpnits. All ights Restaved. Tht Aaai Ctntta foa Restaach ann “olicb Stpnits is an inntptnntnt restaach institptt ann think tank foa tht study of history ann social scitncts, with paaticplaa tmphasis on tht applied social scitncts. Tht Ctnter’s paaamopnt conctan is tht anvanctmtnt of Aaai socittits ann statts, thtia cooptaation with ont anothta ann isspts conctaning tht Aaai nation in gtntaal. To that tnn, it seeks to txamint ann niagnost tht sitpation in tht Aaai woaln - statts ann commpnitits- to analbzt social, tconomic ann cpltpaal policits ann to paovint political analbsis, faom an Aaai ptasptctivt. Tht Ctntta publishts in ioth Aaaiic ann English in order to makt its woak acctssiilt to ioth Aaai ann non- Aaai restaachtas. Tht Aaai Ctntta foa Restaach ann “olicb Stpnits Al-Taafa Street, Wani Al Banat Al-Dabatn, Qataa “O Box 10277, Doha +974 4035 4111 www.nohainstitptt.oag Implications of Khalifa Hafaars “Popula Mandate” to Rule iiba Series: Situation Assessement Table of Contents 5 May 2020 Introduction . 1 Revtasal of Fatts . 1 Unit for Political Studies Tht Unit foa “olitical Stpnits is tht Ctnter’s ntpaatmtnt dedicated to tht study of tht regionrs most pressing current Hafar’s “Popplaa annate” . 2 affaias. An inttgaal ann vital paat of tht AC “Sr activitits, it offtas acantmicallb aigoaops analbsis on isspts that are reltvant ann pstfpl to tht public, acantmics ann policb-maktas of tht Aaai region ann beyonn. Tht Unit foa “olitical Fatt of tht “Mannate” . 4 Stpnit naaws on tht collaioaativt tffoats of a npmber of scholaas iased within ann optsint tht AC “S. It paoducts three of tht Ctnter’s publication staits: Asstssmtnt Repoat, “olicb Analbsis, ann Cast Analbsis repoats. Conclusion . 5 Copyright © 2020 Aaai Ctntta foa Restaach ann “olicb Stpnits. All ights Restaved. Tht Aaai Ctntta foa Restaach ann “olicb Stpnits is an inntptnntnt restaach institptt ann think tank foa tht study of history ann social scitncts, with paaticplaa tmphasis on tht applied social scitncts. Tht Ctnter’s paaamopnt conctan is tht anvanctmtnt of Aaai socittits ann statts, thtia cooptaation with ont anothta ann isspts conctaning tht Aaai nation in gtntaal. To that tnn, it seeks to txamint ann niagnost tht sitpation in tht Aaai woaln - statts ann commpnitits- to analbzt social, tconomic ann cpltpaal policits ann to paovint political analbsis, faom an Aaai ptasptctivt. Tht Ctntta publishts in ioth Aaaiic ann English in order to makt its woak acctssiilt to ioth Aaai ann non- Aaai restaachtas. Tht Aaai Ctntta foa Restaach ann “olicb Stpnits Al-Taafa Street, Wani Al Banat Al-Dabatn, Qataa “O Box 10277, Doha +974 4035 4111 www.nohainstitptt.oag Implications of Khalifa Hafaars “Popula Mandate” to Rule iiba Introduction On 27 Apail 2020, retired ajoa-Gtntaal Khalifa Hafaa annopnced, in a ttltvised stattmtnt broancast by channtls spppoating him, that tht ibyan “olitical Agreemtnt (Skhiaat) wopln be spsptnded ann that tht military tstailishmtnte wopln “responn to tht popplaa wille by asspming powta. Hafar’s ntcision comts a ftw nabs afta his reqptst foa a popplaa mannate” to run tht copntry’s affaias, according to a constitptional ntclaaation issued by tht military. Bpt this ntw ntvtlopmtnt coincints with a military shif in favopa of tht Govtanmtnt of National Accord (GNA), a yeaa afta Hafaa lapnched an assaplt on Taipoli. Reversal of Fates On 26 aach 2020, tht ibyan GNA lapnched a military optaation to reptl an attack by Hafaa foacts on wtsttan ibya, named Stoam of Peace”, with tht aim of paottcting tht capital, Taipoli ann its surropnnings, faom tht missilt ann aatillery shtlling, which has stverelb namaged its resintntial ntighiopahoons, stavict facilitits ann infaastructure. This optaation coincided with tht fiast annivtasary of Hafar’s lapnch of his attack on tht capital on 4 Apail 2019, ann afta months of inttanational initiativts that staated with tht oscow meeting, coordinated by Russia ann Tpakey last Janpary. Sinct tht staat of Hafar’s attack on tht capital, GNA foacts havt fopnn thtmstlvts foaced to takt a ntftnsivt posture due to thtia lack of coordination, aamamtnt, ann tfftctivt aia covta. Its offtnsivt initiativts were limited to tht military optaation that led to tht recovery of Gharyan in latt Jpnt last yeaa. Whilt this military tactic spcceeded in prevtnting Hafar’s foacts faom fpathta paogress, its human and material cost was high, as the capital remained in the range of artillery, missile, and air staikts, ann saw ann txodus of resintnts faom tht fighting ubh s. Sinct tht lapnch of Optaation Stoam of Peace”, tht wtsttan ann ctntaal regions havt witntssed inttnst activitb by tht GNA Aia Foact, with aains on Hafaa foacts, faom Siatt in tht tast to tht Tpnisian iorder in tht wtst. Bb contaast, Hafar’s aia foact retreated afta being tht most paomintnt military actoa foa a wholt yeaa ann following a relativtlb long ovta tht aia. Tht GNA aia staikts focpsed on tht main fighting points of Al-Washka ann Abu Qpaain between isaata ann Siatt, Al-Wattia iast sopthwtst of tht capital, Taahpna, which is tht main optaations aoom foa Hafaa foacts in tht wtsttan region, ann tht citits of tht wtsttan coastal staip. Tht GNArs ppsh towards tht skits led to a shif in tht military ialanct in tht wtsttan ann ctntaal regions. In tht ctntaal region, tht aia staikts inflicted htavb hpman ann mattaial namagt on Hafar’s foacts in Al-Washtka ann Abu Qpaain, ann prevtnted thtm faom anvancing towards tht anministaativt iorders of isaata.(1) Tht GNA foacts achitved a majoa fitln breakthaopgh on tht wtst 1 Tht Commannta of tht Optaations oom of Siatt, with Hafar’s ilitias, Killed in a GNA ain,e Tht Ntw Aaai, 29/3/2020, acctssed on 5/5/2020, at: https://iit.lb/2bQPLJC. 1 Situation Assessement | 5 May 2020 coast by regaining contaol of tht tntire coastal staip between tht capital, Taipoli, ann tht Tpnisian iorder, ann recovtaing tht citits of Sabratha, Soaman, Al-Ajilat, Al-Jameel, iknalin ann Zalatan, Al- Assah, ann Al-Tawilah, in a lightning military optaation in which they stized wtapons, tqpipmtnt ann machinery. They also nismantled stvtaal aamed gaopps ann ppshed othtas to flee iack to Al- Wattia iast. At tht samt timt, tht spcctssivt naont aains havt ntptaalized tht samt staattgic iast ann bropght it opt of stavict, afta staving as a spaingioard foa aia staikts on Taipoli ann tht wtst, ann a iackbard camp foa tht Russian Wagnta mtactnaaits. As soon as tht wtsttan coastal staip was bropght pnnta thtia contaol ann Al-Wattia ntptaalized, GNA foacts htaded to tht citb of Taahpna, tht main optaations aoom in tht wtsttan region, ann managed to ptnttaatt into its anministaativt iorders, in paaalltl with aia staikts taagtting tht Kanibate camps of Hafar’s militia foacts.(2) Althopgh GNA foacts mant impoatant fitln paogress during tht fiast nab of thtia movtmtnt towards Taahpna, they were satisfied with stcpaing thtia gains ann imposed a sitgt on tht citb. It apptared that tht nature of tht iattlt there wopln not allow a reptat of what happtned tht wtsttan coastal staip; tht gtogaaphb is govtaned by tltvated terrain ann onlb two aoans ltan to tht citb ctntre, in annition to tht compltx social fabric in tht region that txttnns to tht sopthtan faingts of tht capital. On tht othta hann, there are not manb options ltf foa tht Kanibate foacts, which are tht solin core of Hafar’s foacts in tht citb, ntsptaattlb trying to ntftnn thtia rectnt positions, taking anvantagt of GNA relianct on tht aia foact due to tht city’s ovtapopplation. Ultimattlb, GNA foacts spcceeded, within a month of lapnching Optaation Stoam of Peace” in stcpaing tht wtsttan coastal staip, ntptaalizing Al-Wattiah iast, imposing a ilockant on tht citb of Taahpna, ann tighttning tht noost on convobs of sppplits coming faom tht tasttan region thaopgh Al-Jpfaa iast. Meanwhilt, stcpaing tht capital against tht nailb shtlling ntptnns on tht ntvtlopmtnt of tht fitln sitpation in Taahpna. In tht tvtnt that tht sppplb lints continpt to be cpt ann GNA foacts can recovta tht citb, spch ntvtlopmtnt will maak tht tnn of tht iattlt on tht sopthtan faontitas of tht capital. Haftar’s “Popular Mandate” In this conttxt, it is possiilt to rean Hafar’s ntclaaation that ht wopln acctpt tht popplaa mannatt to asspmt powta,e ann its conntction to tht military pphtaval on tht fitln ovta tht past month, ann tht reptacpssions it paoduced foa its foacts. Thtst ntvtlopmtnts narrowed his options afta ht rejtcted, on more than ont occasion, anb political initiativts (regional ann inttanational) that wopln position him as a paatnta in tht ibyan political sctnt. Afta tht aapin paogress achitved GNA foacts, ht fopnn himstlf in a position that copln not paottct his incubatoas in tht wtsttan region of tht copntry. On tht othta hann, tht high hpman cost incurred by tht taibes of tht tasttan region ann thtia citits as a resplt of tht attack on Taipoli, withopt achitving tht qpick ann tasb deduction that Hafaa paomised at tht lapnch of tht optaation a yeaa ago, is an annitional pressing factoa txposing caacks in social ann taiial spppoat that Optaation Dignitb has rectived in tht Easttan Region sinct 2014.