European Union European Fund for Regional Development OPERATIONAL PROGRAMME TRANSPORT “The nearer, the closer...” MINISTRY OF TRANSPORT, INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATIONS REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA PREPARATION OF A GENERAL TRANSPORT MASTER PLAN FOR BULGARIA Final Report April 2010 Prepared by: ................................................ Checked by: ................................................. D Pontefract P Klissarov Team Leader Director Shared Services Rev No Comments Date 1 Final Report 16/04/2010 Landmark Centre, 14 Tzar Osvoboditel Blvd. Sofia 1000, Bulgaria Job No 60044791 Reference FR Rev1 Date Created: January 2010 This document has been prepared by AECOM Limited (AECOM) for the use of The Bulgarian Ministry of Transport, Information Technology and Communications (the “Client”). Any information provided by third parties and referred to herein has not been checked or verified by AECOM, unless otherwise expressly stated in the document. 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Table of Contents 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Bulgaria General Transport Master Plan .............................................................. 1 1.2 Purpose of Study .................................................................................................. 1 1.3 Final Project Report .............................................................................................. 2 1.4 Structure of Report................................................................................................ 2 1.5 Sources of Data .................................................................................................... 2 2 Analysis of the Existing Transport System .................................................................. 4 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 4 2.2 Bulgaria - Economy and Transport ....................................................................... 4 2.3 National Institutions with Responsibility for Transport .......................................... 7 2.4 Financing ............................................................................................................ 10 2.5 Transport Networks............................................................................................. 13 3 Transport Models .......................................................................................................... 22 3.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 22 3.2 Model Structure ................................................................................................... 22 3.3 Sources of Data for Current Transport Demand ................................................. 23 3.4 Global Economic Crisis ....................................................................................... 25 3.5 Modelling Growth in Demand ............................................................................. 26 4 Transport Demand ........................................................................................................ 35 4.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 35 4.2 Existing Passenger Transport Demand .............................................................. 35 4.3 Existing Domestic Freight Transport................................................................... 36 4.4 Existing International Freight Transport .............................................................. 38 4.5 Existing Transport Network Capacity .................................................................. 39 4.6 Forecasts of Passenger Demand ....................................................................... 40 4.7 Forecasts of Freight Demand ............................................................................. 42 5 Problem Identification .................................................................................................. 45 5.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 45 5.2 Current Weaknesses and Gaps .......................................................................... 46 5.3 Future Weaknesses and Gaps to be Overcome ................................................ 51 6 Option Identification ..................................................................................................... 54 6.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 54 6.2 Methodology for Option Selection ....................................................................... 54 6.3 Highway Options ................................................................................................. 57 6.4 Rail Options ........................................................................................................ 61 6.5 Port and Waterway Options ................................................................................ 64 6.6 Air Transport Options .......................................................................................... 69 6.7 Inter-Modal Options ............................................................................................ 70 7 Appraisal Framework .................................................................................................... 72 7.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 72 7.2 Review of Guidance ............................................................................................ 72 7.3 General Approach to Appraisal ........................................................................... 75 7.4 The GTMP Appraisal Framework ....................................................................... 78 8 Appraisal of Options ..................................................................................................... 83 8.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 83 8.2 Appraisal Summary............................................................................................. 83 8.3 Highway Options ................................................................................................. 84 8.4 Rail Options ........................................................................................................ 90 8.5 Port and Waterway Options ................................................................................ 94 8.6 Air Transport Options .......................................................................................... 98 8.7 Inter-Modal Options ............................................................................................ 99 8.8 Schemes Recommended to be Taken Forward ............................................... 100 9 The Master Plan Strategy ........................................................................................... 104 9.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 104 9.2 Master Plan Development Process .................................................................. 104 9.3 Management and Administration Options ........................................................ 105 9.4 Corridor Strategy Options ................................................................................. 107 9.5 Network Strategy Options ................................................................................. 117 9.6 The Plan in Summary ....................................................................................... 123 9.7 Evaluation of the Master Plan ........................................................................... 128 9.8 Environmental Assessment .............................................................................. 130 9.9 Sensitivity Tests ................................................................................................ 145 9.10 Priority Projects ................................................................................................. 151 10 Master Plan Delivery ................................................................................................... 155 10.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 155 10.2 Asset Maintenance Strategy ............................................................................. 155 10.3 Implementation and Funding Strategy .............................................................. 163 10.4 Human Resources Development Strategy ....................................................... 175 10.5 Monitoring and Evaluation Strategy .................................................................. 184 Tables Table 2.1 - Bulgaria's Economy (1995 Constant Prices) .............................................................. 4 Table 2.2 - Comparative Demographic and Economic Indicators (2007 prices)........................... 5 Table 2.3 - Leading Markets & Suppliers ...................................................................................... 5 Table 2.4 - Major Imports & Exports