Library use across Hamilton: Borrowing and population trends for library planning FINAL Prepared for the Hamilton Public Library June 2018 Prepared by Sara Mayo Social Planning and Research Council of Hamilton 350 King St East, Suite 104, Hamilton, ON L8N 3Y3 www.sprc.hamilton.on.ca Social Planning and Research Council of Hamilton – HPL report (Final Draft) page 2 Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 5 2.0 Data and methods .............................................................................................................. 8 3.0 Hamilton’s population growth patterns ........................................................................ 10 3.1. Growth at ward and sub-ward level areas ..................................................................... 10 3.2. Projected population per branch in 2025 ....................................................................... 13 3.3. Additional city of Hamilton growth planning context ...................................................... 15 4.0 Branch performance metrics.......................................................................................... 18 4.1. Performance metrics by branch characteristiscs, assets and locations ....................... 18 4.2. Branch circulation performance by time periods ........................................................... 23 5.0 Population characteristics, cardholders and circulation performance metrics ..... 24 5.1. Cardholders, population and circulation ........................................................................ 25 5.2. Bookmobile usage .......................................................................................................... 29 5.3. Trends by age groups..................................................................................................... 30 5.4. Branch catchment areas ................................................................................................ 34 5.5. Maps of borrowing patterns ............................................................................................ 36 6.0 Equity and inclusion lens applied to circulation and customer data ....................... 39 6.1. City of Hamilton Playbook for human services planning ............................................... 39 6.2. Applying an inclusion lens to HPL data ......................................................................... 40 6.3. Income ............................................................................................................................ 41 6.4. Education ........................................................................................................................ 43 6.5. Non-English language spoken at home ......................................................................... 43 6.6. Analysis of equity and inclusion findings ....................................................................... 44 7.0 Potential expansion locations for new branches ........................................................ 47 8.0 Summary Gap Analysis ................................................................................................... 53 Appendix A: Neighbourhood borrowing patterns by selected equity measures ............. 55 Appendix B: Detailed map of potential candidate locations ................................................ 60 Social Planning and Research Council of Hamilton – HPL report (Final Draft) page 3 Social Planning and Research Council of Hamilton – HPL report (Final Draft) page 4 1.0 Introduction The Hamilton Public Library is one of the most widely used public services delivered by the City of Hamilton. Through its 22 branches, over 30 bookmobile stops (Figure 1), and visiting library service, HPL lends more than 6 million items per year. It also serves many others through programming and events, in branches and in the community, computer labs and popular online collection and services. Figure 1. Map of HPL branches and bookmobile stops As part of HPL’s regular scan of trends across the City and how they relate to library planning, HPL commissioned the SPRC to review HPL circulation and customer data in relation to new Census data and city population growth predictions. Social Planning and Research Council of Hamilton – HPL report (Final Draft) page 5 To give more context for the map of HPL branches in Figure 1, Figure 2 shows the 2016 population density across Hamilton, ward and urban boundaries and the categories of HPL branches (colours of the circle symbols) along with 2016 circulation for each branch (size of the circle symbols). Figure 2. HPL branch categories and circulation and population density across Hamilton HPL categorizes its branches in four categories: Rural (currently five branches), Community (14 branches), District (2 branches) and its headquarter branch, Central. Since Hamilton’s amalgamation in 2001, HPL has closed four branches: Rockton and Millgrove, rural branches in Flamborough, Picton, a community branch in the North end of Hamilton on James Street, and the Winona community branch on Highway 8 near Fifty Road in Stoney Creek. Social Planning and Research Council of Hamilton – HPL report (Final Draft) page 6 In 2015, HPL completed a Facilities Master Plan1 to help its Board of Directors make planning and funding decisions regarding its branches. The future actions recommended by the Plan are summarized below. A column has been added to indicate any new renovations or planning updates in the time since the FMP was completed. Branch 2015 FMP Action Status Summary 2018 status Monitor use of the facility and growth in the Ancaster community Barton Monitor and maintain Binbrook Build new expanded facility New facility opened January 2018. Review completed, planning in Carlisle Review progress. Central Maintain Concession Monitor and maintain Renovated facility completed in March Dundas Renovate facility 2018. Felton Monitor and maintain Partner with city and HWDSB for joint New hub facility in development. Greensville facility Opening likely in 2019. Kenilworth Monitor and maintain Review options and funds for improved Currently under renovations, expected Locke entrance to re-open in Q4 2018. Lynden Monitor and maintain Mount Hope Relocate Red Hill Monitor and maintain Monitor and maintain. In the longer term, Saltfleet look for opportunities to partner with city to move to downtown Stoney Creek Sherwood Monitor and maintain Stoney Monitor and maintain Creek Terryberry Monitor and maintain Turner Park Monitor and maintain Work with city and Heritage Green Valley Park Community Trust to secure funding and Funding secured and at design stage. expand branch at current location Waterdown New facility in development New facility opened in 2015. Westdale Monitor and maintain 1 Hamilton Public Library, (2015). Facilities Master Plan 2015. http://www.hpl.ca/sites/default/files/HPL%20Facilities%20Master%20Plan%202015_AODA.pdf Social Planning and Research Council of Hamilton – HPL report (Final Draft) page 7 2.0 Data and methods The following datasets were used in this report • HPL cardholders: anonymized data about HPL cardholders including age, postal code, lifetime circulation and year of card registration. • HPL circulation data – physical items at branches: branch where item was borrowed, date of transaction and cardholder ID, for the period October 2015 to September 2016. A change in HPL databases made it more difficult to access more recent data. The period of this data was deemed acceptable because it overlapped with the dates of the 2016 Census. • HPL circulation data – bookmobile: same as above for bookmobile items. • HPL circulation data – online items: This data was only available for Overdrive and Freegal items and included transaction date and cardholder ID for the full 12-month period of 2016. • HPL circulation data – last activity date: This was used to reduce the list of over 230,000 cardholders to eliminate persons who had no activity in the last three years (criteria used was last activity greater than 2013). This reduced the number of cardholders to about 180,000 persons. • 2016 Census (Statistics Canada): indicators used included population, income groups, education levels, languages, housing types among others, all at the smallest geography available, dissemination areas (DA). • 2016 Postal Code Conversion File (Statistics Canada): This dataset is a list of postal codes across Canada and within which Census geographies they are found. Due to many postal codes in rural areas belonging to multiple large areas, often a link between postal code-based data in rural areas cannot be linked to census data. This was the case in Hamilton, as will be seen in later sections of this report. • HPL Branch performance data: this data was not linked to individual cardholders, rather was the aggregated data from each branch. Data included circulation, visits, and computer use for 2016. In addition, data on circulation per hour at each branch for a selected week was also accessed. This data was supplemented with data from the 2015 HPL Facilities Master Plan, including branch size (square footage) and FMP status. • Current and projected (to 2025) population data from the Watson and Associates Inc. report for the City of Hamilton Ward Boundary Review: Social Planning and Research Council of Hamilton – HPL report (Final Draft) page 8 • City of Hamilton Ward Boundaries (2018): This report uses the new