Report No. 82538-GA Gabonese Republic Public Disclosure Authorized Report on Growth and Employment Paving the way toward inclusive growth June 2013 Public Disclosure Authorized Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Department 3 Africa Region Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Document of the World Bank Table of Contents ACRONYMS .............................................................................................................................................. 2 ACKNOWLEMENTS ................................................................................................................................ 5 SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................................. 7 I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................ 1 II. ECONOMIC CONTEXT .............................................................................................................. 3 Gabon’s economic performance since independence ....................................................................... 3 The period of stable and steady growth: 1960-1972 ........................................................................ 4 The oil boom: 1973-1985 ................................................................................................................. 5 Decrease and failure of attempts at economic structural adjustments:1986-2002 .......................... 6 Structural reforms and macroeconomic stabilization:2003-2010 .................................................... 7 Growth Outlook ................................................................................................................................ 9 Sources of Gabonese growth .......................................................................................................... 10 On supply: an economy still dependent on oil ................................................................................ 10 On demand: the supremacy of domestic demand ........................................................................... 13 Growth accounting: overall productivity of negative factors over the last forty years .................. 14 Impact of growth on employment .................................................................................................. 15 The period of full employment: 1960-1985 .................................................................................... 15 Continued deterioration of the labor market:1986-2010 ............................................................... 16 Jobless growth 2003-2010 .............................................................................................................. 20 Chapter conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 20 III. THE GABONESE LABOR MARKET ...................................................................................... 21 Demographic context: a young and urban population .................................................................... 21 Main features of the Gabonese labor market .................................................................................. 24 Unemployment very high and rising ............................................................................................... 25 A largely urban and informal labor force ...................................................................................... 31 Relatively high labor costs ............................................................................................................. 36 Education and employability of youth and women in Gabon ........................................................ 38 Education and employability .......................................................................................................... 38 Return to education ........................................................................................................................ 39 Chapter conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 40 IV. CONSTRAINTS AND CHALLENGES IN THE GABONESE LABOR MARKET .......... 41 On supply: incompatibility between the structure of the education system and job opportunities .. 41 Poor internal efficiency of basic general education ....................................................................... 44 Insufficient and inefficient budgetary allocations to the education sector ..................................... 48 Ongoing reform of the education system ........................................................................................ 49 On demand: a restrictive investment climate ................................................................................. 52 i Ineffective support for private sector development ........................................................................ 53 High cost and low quality of energy ............................................................................................... 55 Low quality transport and logistics infrastructure and services .................................................... 57 Difficulties accessing credit............................................................................................................ 59 On legal and institutional framework: ............................................................................................ 60 Strict labor laws ............................................................................................................................. 60 A structurally unbalanced social security system ........................................................................... 62 Lack of a reliable information system on the job market ............................................................... 65 Labor market intermediation is limited .......................................................................................... 66 The limited impact of employment promotion programs ................................................................ 67 V.CONCLUSION: CREATE INCLUSIVE GROWTH CONDITIONS ......................................... 71 Appendix1:List of skills needing to implement PSGE mining projects ........................................... 74 APPENDIX 2: ................................................................. Several job market concepts and indicators 76 REFERENCES ..................................................................................................................................... 77 Table of Graphs Graph 1 : GDP Evolution in Gabon1960-2010 (In constant billions of CFA Francs 2000) ......................... 3 Graph 2: GDP evolution per capita 1960-2010 (In USD) ............................................................................. 4 Graph 3: Oil and non-oil GDP growth 1990-2010 (Annual variations in percentage) ................................. 7 Graph 4: Evolution of price of commodities,1960-2009 (Price index,base 100 =1960) ............................. 8 Graph 5: Evolutionof the overall fiscal balance and the non-oil primary deficit 1990-2011 ....................... 8 Graph 6: Growth outlook for the Gabonese economy 2008-2017 ............................................................. 10 Graph 7: GDP Origins, 1980-2010(In percentage of GDP) ....................................................................... 11 Graph 8: Factorial contribution to GDP growth, 1970-2010 .................................................................. 15 Graph 9: Employment trends, 1985-2010 (Number of jobs) ...................................................................... 17 Graph 10: Evolution of formal employment, 1985-2010 (Number of jobs) .............................................. 19 Graph 11: Evolutionof the relative shares of the public and private workforce in formal employment 1985-2010 (In percentage of total formal employment) ............................................................................ 19 Graph 12:Age pyramid of the Gabonese population, 2010 ........................................................................ 22 Graph 13:Structureof the Gabonese population by place of residence and gender 2010 ........................... 22 Graph 14:Demographic projections,1960-2025 ......................................................................................... 24 Graph 15:Evolution of unemployment rate(for BIT) in Gabon,1993-2010 ............................................... 25 Graph 16:Unemployment rate in Gabon and comparator countries, 2010(In percentage) ........................ 26 Graph 17:Unemployment rates in the major cities of West Africa,2010 ............................................ 26 Graph 18: Unemployment rate by province,2010 ....................................................................................... 27 Graph 19:Unemployment rate by age group,2010 ................................................................................... 28 Graph 20: Unemployment rate by education level,2010 ............................................................................. 28 Graph 21:Unemployment rate by gender and education level,2010 (In percentage) ............................. 30 Graph 22:Geographical distribution of employment in Gabon,2010 ........................................................