TRANSITIONING OF URBAN WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS A thesis submitted to The University of Birmingham for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY by JOTHAM IVAN SEMPEWO School of Civil Engineering College of Engineering The University of Birmingham October 2012 1 University of Birmingham Research Archive e-theses repository This unpublished thesis/dissertation is copyright of the author and/or third parties. The intellectual property rights of the author or third parties in respect of this work are as defined by The Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988 or as modified by any successor legislation. Any use made of information contained in this thesis/dissertation must be in accordance with that legislation and must be properly acknowledged. Further distribution or reproduction in any format is prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder. DEDICATION To my Dad who underwent an operation when I was about to complete my study and to my Wife and our children Tabitha, Tiana Nathan and Jotham whom I dearly missed ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I express my sincere gratitude to Prof. Kala Vairavamooorthy who right after UNESCO-IHE Delft gave me the opportunity to undertake this work as part of his team. His insightful encouragement, optimism, critical observation, comments and arguments while at the University of Birmingham, and for the period he hosted me at the Patel School of Global Sustainability (PSGS) at the University of South Florida (USF) opened my mind to look beyond borders. This help reshaped my work greatly and catapulted me to the very end of the study. Further thanks go to my supervisors Prof. Andrew Chan and Prof. Mark Sterling for their guidance, critics and supervisory support after I returned from the University of South Florida (USF). This study was financially supported by Severn Trent Water and The School of Civil Engineering, at the University of Birmingham. I gratefully acknowledge their support without which the work and experience gained during the study would never have been achieved. The period close to one year spent at the PSGS was enriching and interesting. I extend my thanks to Prof. Kala’s research team (Jochen Eckart, Kebreab Ghabremichael Krishna Khatri and Seneshaw Tsegaye) and the entire staff at PSGS for their encouragement, discussions, brainstorming session’s critical views and support. I also give thanks to Zhou Yi and Harrison Mutikanga other members of the research group at UNESCO-IHE Delft and to Danguang Huang for your valuable insights. iii Acknowledgement Thanks to colleagues who helped me during the case study data collection, questionnaire survey and the discussion and comments throughout this study. I would like particularly thank Herbert Mujuni, Dr. Frank Kizito. Dr. Paul Nyeko, Joseph Bayeck, Wilberforce Mbatya, Dr. Harrison Mutikanga, Amon Chinyophiro, Dr. Isaac Mutenyo, Firminus Mugumya , Marie Goretti Nyangweso, Robert Wamala, Francis Kyakulaga and Jesse Kigozi. I am also grateful to the Mbule family especially my Dad for inspiration and moral support during the period of the study. Dad always stressed that education is the key and that is what encouraged me to pursue further studies. Difficult as it was, you never gave up with respect to enabling us achieve good education. Thanks to friends in the UK and to Uncle Ssalongo and Auntie Nalongo for making my life in the UK an interesting one. Last but not least, I record my deepest thanks to my lovely wife - Hellen for the emotional support accorded to me and for standing in for the family during the study. My daughters Tabitha and Tiana and my sons Jotham and Nathan; yours has been a painful task of endurance and unending patience. Above all, I thank the Almighty God for keeping me and my family in good health and for blessings throughout the entire study period Jotham Sempewo University of Birmingham iv TABLE OF CONTENTS DEDICATION............................................................................................................................... ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ........................................................................................................... iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ..............................................................................................................v LIST OF TABLES .........................................................................................................................x LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................... xi LIST OF ACRONYMS/ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................................... xiii ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................................xv CHAPTER ONE ............................................................................................................................1 INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................................................1 1.1 Background ....................................................................................................................1 1.2 Motivation ......................................................................................................................6 1.3 Aims and objectives .......................................................................................................9 1.4 Research Framework ...................................................................................................10 1.5 Scope and Structure of the Thesis ................................................................................11 CHAPTER TWO .........................................................................................................................14 2. Chapter overview .................................................................................................................14 2.1 Understanding UWDS Transitions ..............................................................................15 2.2 Historical perspectives of UWDS Transitions .............................................................16 2.2.1 Driving forces for UWDS transitions ............................................................20 2.2.2 UWDS Transition barriers .............................................................................22 2.3 Transition Theory.........................................................................................................23 2.3.1 Analysis of the State of Existing Systems .....................................................23 2.3.2 Development of Options and pathways to the Future ....................................23 2.3.3 Models for designing UWDS Transition .......................................................24 2.4 Transition decision models based on Pipe and pipe cohort significance .....................33 2.5 Design for UWDS Transitions .....................................................................................35 2.6 Real Options Analysis (ROA) .....................................................................................38 2.7 UWDS Platform Design ..............................................................................................40 2.8 Socio-Economic Impact Analysis of UWDS ...............................................................43 v Table of Contents 2.8.1 The DPSIR Method........................................................................................45 2.8.2 The Multi-Objective Optimisation Approach ................................................46 2.8.3 The Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Technique ..........................................46 2.9 Quantification of Socio-Economic Impacts .................................................................48 CHAPTER THREE .....................................................................................................................52 DEVELOPMENT OF A SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT INDICATOR FOR UWDS TRANSITION .....................................................................................................................52 3. Chapter overview .................................................................................................................52 3.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................53 3.2 Multi-criteria Decision Analysis ..................................................................................57 3.3 The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) ......................................................................61 3.3.1 Simplified example of AHP .........................................................................................64 3.4 Framework for development of SII..............................................................................68 3.4.1 Problem definition and inception phase .......................................................................69 3.4.2 Design phase ................................................................................................................70 3.4.3 Evaluation and analysis phase .....................................................................................73 3.5 Case study -Application of the developed SII framework ...........................................74 3.6 Results discussion ........................................................................................................87 CHAPTER FOUR ........................................................................................................................89