SPICe ELECTION 2007 briefing STEPHEN HERBERT, ROSS BURNSIDE, MURRAY EARLE, TOM EDWARDS, TOM FOLEY, IAIN MCIVER 8 May 2007 The paper provides an analysis of the 2007 Scottish Parliament election. 07/21 In particular it covers the Scottish Parliament electoral system, the election campaign, electoral behaviour and the polls, turnout, spoilt ballots, the impact of the result upon the political parties, the regional vote and the new composition of the Parliament. The briefing also contains perspectives on the election from a range of external commentators. The views expressed by these authors are their own and do not represent the views of SPICe or of the Scottish Parliament. The external commentators are: James Mitchell, Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde. Charlie Jeffrey, Professor of Politics at the University of Edinburgh and Co-Director of the Institute of Governance at the University of Edinburgh. Douglas Fraser, Scottish Political Editor of the Herald newspaper. John Curtice, Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde. Nicola McEwen, Senior Lecturer in Politics at the University of Edinburgh. Peter Lynch, Senior Lecturer in Politics at the University of Stirling. Scottish Parliament Information Centre (SPICe) Briefings are compiled for the benefit of the Members of the Parliament and their personal staff. Authors are available to discuss the contents of these papers with MSPs and their staff who should contact Stephen Herbert on extension 85373 or email [email protected]. Members of the public or external organisations may comment on this briefing by emailing us at [email protected]. However, researchers are unable to enter into personal discussion in relation to SPICe Briefing Papers. If you have any general questions about the work of the Parliament you can email the Parliament’s Public Information Service at [email protected]. Every effort is made to ensure that the information contained in SPICe briefings is correct at the time of publication. Readers should be aware however that briefings are not necessarily updated or otherwise amended to reflect subsequent changes. www.scottish.parliament.uk 1 CONTENTS ELECTION FACTS.................................................................................................................... 3 SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT ELECTORAL SYSTEM................................................................. 4 IMPACT OF THE RESULT ON SCOTTISH GOVERNMENT/GOVERNANCE........................ 8 SITUATING THE RESULT IN A UK CONTEXT..................................................................... 12 THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN.................................................................................................. 15 THE MANIFESTOS .................................................................................................................. 15 CAMPAIGN ISSUES ................................................................................................................. 18 BBC Poll.......................................................................................................................... 18 Local Taxation................................................................................................................. 18 Cost of Independence..................................................................................................... 20 Independence Referendum and the Powers of the Scottish Parliament........................ 20 Iraq .................................................................................................................................. 20 Cash for honours............................................................................................................. 21 Trident ............................................................................................................................. 21 The costing of policy proposals....................................................................................... 21 Anniversaries .................................................................................................................. 22 Party Endorsements ....................................................................................................... 22 International Interest ....................................................................................................... 22 Two horse race and the exclusion of other parties......................................................... 23 TV debates......................................................................................................................23 The press and new media............................................................................................... 24 What the Papers said...................................................................................................... 24 THE ELECTION CAMPAIGN FROM A MEDIA PERSPECTIVE ........................................... 28 ELECTORAL BEHAVIOUR .................................................................................................... 32 TURNOUT ............................................................................................................................... 37 TURNOUT AND ELECTORAL BEHAVIOUR ........................................................................ 41 SPOILT BALLOTS..................................................................................................................44 THE 2007 ELECTION IN THE CONTEXT OF THE ARBUTHNOTT COMMISSION............. 46 STATE OF THE PARTIES ...................................................................................................... 48 IMPACT OF THE ELECTION RESULT ON THE PARTIES................................................... 51 REGIONAL VOTE...................................................................................................................59 COMPOSITION OF THE PARLIAMENT ................................................................................ 66 SOURCES ............................................................................................................................... 68 ANNEX ONE – SPOILT BALLOTS BY CONSTITUENCY..................................................... 70 ANNEX TWO – DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CONSTITUENCY AND LIST VOTES BY PARTY..................................................................................................................................... 72 ANNEX THREE – CHANGING SHARE OF CONSTITUENCY VOTE BY PARTY................ 73 ANNEX FOUR – REFERENCE MAPS ................................................................................... 77 ANNEX FIVE – INDEX OF PARLIAMENT CONSTITUENCIES AND REGIONS.................. 80 providing research and information services to the Scottish Parliament 2 ELECTION FACTS • The 2007 Scottish Parliamentary election produced the following result in terms of MSP numbers: Scottish National Party 47 Scottish Labour Party 46 Scottish Conservatives 17 Scottish Liberal Democrats 16 Scottish Green Party 2 Margo MacDonald 1 • Turnout in the election was 51.7% in the constituency vote and 52.4% in the regional vote up from 2003 where the turnout was 49.4% in both the constituency and regional vote • Turnout varied on the constituency vote from 63.4% in Eastwood to 33.4% in Glasgow Shettleston • The opinion polls were broadly in line with the actual election result for the SNP, Conservative and Liberal Democrats but underestimated Labour support and overestimated support for the Greens, Socialists and Independents • Of the 129 MSPs there are 41 MSPs (31.8%) who did not serve in the previous term • 43 women (33.3% of MSPs) have been elected to the third Scottish Parliament providing research and information services to the Scottish Parliament 3 SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT ELECTORAL SYSTEM The system used for elections to the Scottish Parliament is a form of proportional representation (PR) known as the Additional Member System (AMS). Using this system, each voter has two votes. One is to elect regional Members of whom there are 56 across 8 regions. The system is designed to ensure that, as far as possible, the share of MSPs in the Scottish Parliament reflects the share of votes cast for each party. The other vote is cast for a constituency MSP, of whom there are 73, via the same First Past the Post (FPTP) system used for elections to Westminster. Under AMS in the three elections to the Scottish Parliament so far, no single party has achieved an overall majority. In 1999, the seats were distributed to the four largest political parties (Labour 56, SNP 35, Conservatives 18 and Liberal Democrats 17), as well as one each for the Greens, the Socialists and the independent candidate, Dennis Canavan. The 2003 election saw a move towards a ‘rainbow parliament’ in a shift towards smaller parties and independents, and away from Labour and the SNP on both the regional and constituency vote, as well as the total seats (Labour 50, SNP 27, Liberal Democrats 17 and Conservatives 18). The smaller parties did better than in 1999, the Greens gaining 7 seats and the Socialists 6 and there were 3 independents elected - Jean Turner, Dennis Canavan and Margo MacDonald - and John Swinburne was elected under the Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party banner. A governing coalition was formed between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. In the 2007 election this trend was reversed, returning the Parliament to a pre-2003 make-up, but with the SNP in the lead on 47 seats, Labour on 46, Conservatives