Prepared in cooperation with the City of Newport News Simulated Changes in Salinity in the York and Chickahominy Rivers from Projected Sea-Level Rise in Chesapeake Bay Open-File Report 2011–1191 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Cover photograph: St. Michaels Marina, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland. Simulated Changes in Salinity in the York and Chickahominy Rivers from Projected Sea-Level Rise in Chesapeake Bay By Karen C. Rice, Mark R. Bennett, and Jian Shen Prepared in cooperation with the City of Newport News Open-File Report 2011–1191 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior KEN SALAZAR, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Marcia K. McNutt, Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2011 For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment, visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1-888-ASK-USGS For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod To order this and other USGS information products, visit http://store.usgs.gov Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted materials contained within this report. Suggested citation: Rice, K.C., Bennett, M.R., and Shen, Jian, 2011, Simulated changes in salinity in the York and Chickahominy Rivers from projected sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2011–1191, 31 p. ISBN 978-1-4113-3235-5 iii Contents Abstract ...........................................................................................................................................................1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................1 Climate Variability and Change and Sea-Level Rise ......................................................................2 Drinking-Water Utilities and Climate Change ..................................................................................3 Study Area..............................................................................................................................................5 Sea-Level Rise in Chesapeake Bay ...................................................................................................5 Sea-Level Rise Scenarios ...................................................................................................................6 Hydrodynamic Models .................................................................................................................................7 Model Limitations..................................................................................................................................7 York River Model ...................................................................................................................................7 Chickahominy River Model .................................................................................................................9 Model Results .................................................................................................................................................9 York River ............................................................................................................................................10 Chickahominy River ...........................................................................................................................11 Summary........................................................................................................................................................21 Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................................21 References ....................................................................................................................................................22 Appendix........................................................................................................................................................25 Figures 1. Graph showing smoothed reconstructions of large-scale surface temperature variations from proxy records and the instrumental record of global mean surface temperature ....................................................................................................................2 2. Graph showing variations in global sea-level elevation over the last 400,000 years resulting from four natural glacial and interglacial cycles ...........................3 3. Graph showing past and projected global average sea level ..............................................3 4. Map showing location of York, Chickahominy, and James Rivers, Virginia .......................4 5. Graph showing historic sea-level rise at Sewells Point, Virginia, 1927–2006 ....................6 6. Graph showing chloride concentration at Walkers Dam on the Chickahominy River, 1999–2004 ............................................................................................................................6 7. Map showing large domain model of Chesapeake Bay ........................................................8 8. Map showing nested-grid model of the York River .................................................................9 9. Map showing nested-grid model of the James and Chickahominy Rivers ......................10 10. Graphs showing time series of surface and bottom simulated salinity at the head of the York estuary for three sea-level rise scenarios, 1998–2008 ...........................12 11. Graphs showing cross sections (A–A’ on figure 4) of average simulated salinity at the head of the York estuary for July and August ...............................................13 iv 12. Graphs showing cross sections (A–A’ on figure 4) of average simulated salinity at the head of the York estuary for September and October .................................14 13. Graphs showing cross sections (A–A’ on figure 4) of average simulated salinity at the head of the York estuary for November and December ..............................15 14. Graphs showing effect of simulated sea-level rise scenarios on 31-day mean salinity along the York River ...........................................................................................16 15. Graphs showing time series of simulated surface and bottom salinity at Walkers Dam on the Chickahominy River for three sea-level rise scenarios, 1998–2008 .....................................................................................................................................17 16. Graphs showing cross sections (B–B’ on figure 4) of average simulated salinity downstream of Walkers Dam on the Chickahominy River for July and August ..........................................................................................................................18 17. Graphs showing cross sections (B–B’ on figure 4) of average simulated salinity downstream of Walkers Dam on the Chickahominy River for September and October ............................................................................................................19 18. Graphs showing cross sections (B–B’ on figure 4) of average simulated salinity downstream of Walkers Dam on the Chickahominy River for November and December .........................................................................................................20 19. Graphs showing effect of simulated sea-level rise scenarios on 31-day mean salinity along the Chickahominy River ............................................................20 Tables 1. Rates of relative sea-level rise for selected long-term tidal gages on the Atlantic coast of the United States ............................................................................................5 2. Mean annual discharge for the James River near Richmond ............................................11 3. Number of days that salinity is predicted to exceed 0.1 parts per thousand at the head of the York estuary from June 1 to December 31 .............................................11 4. Number of days that salinity is predicted to exceed 0.1 parts per thousand at Walkers Dam on the Chickahominy River from June 1 to December 31 ......................16 5. Number of days that water from sea-level rise is predicted to overtop Walkers Dam on the Chickahominy River from June 1 to December 31 ...........................16 v Conversion Factors SI to Inch/Pound Multiply By To obtain Length centimeter (cm) 0.3937 inch (in.) millimeter (mm) 0.03937 inch (in.) millimeter per year (mm/yr) 0.03937 inch per year (in/yr) meter (m) 3.281 foot (ft) kilometer (km) 0.6214 mile (mi) kilometer (km) 0.5400 mile, nautical (nmi) meter (m) 1.094 yard (yd) Area square kilometer (km2) 0.6214 square mile (mi2) Volume liter (L) 0.2642 gallon (gal) cubic meter per second (m3/s) 264.2 gallon (gal) cubic meter (m3) 0.0002642 million gallons (Mgal) Flow rate cubic meter per second (m3/s) 35.31 cubic foot per second (ft3/s) Temperature in degrees Fahrenheit (°F) may be converted to degrees Celsius (°C) as follows: °C = (°F–32)/1.8 Acronyms and Additional Abbreviations TDS Total dissolved solids GMSL