City of Winnipeg Employment and Commercial Lands Study May 16, 2018 In association with: Plaza Three, 101-2000 Argentia Rd. Mississauga, Ontario Canada L5N 1V9 Phone: (905) 272-3600 Fax: (905 272-3602 e-mail: [email protected] Contents Page Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... (i) PHASE 1: EMPLOYMENT AND COMMERCIAL LAND NEEDS ANALYSIS ......................... 1-1 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1-1 1.1 Terms of Reference ...................................................................................... 1-1 1.2 Economic Context ....................................................................................... 1-2 1.3 What are Employment Lands? ................................................................... 1-3 1.4 Why are Employment Lands Important? .................................................. 1-4 2. Employment Lands Policy Context ....................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Provincial Legislation and Policy Context ................................................ 2-1 2.1.1 The Planning Act (Manitoba) ....................................................... 2-1 2.1.2 Manitoba Provincial Land Use Policies (PLUPs) .......................... 2-2 2.1.3 City of Winnipeg Charter Act ....................................................... 2-3 2.2 Municipal By-Laws and Policy Context ..................................................... 2-3 2.2.1 OurWinnipeg Development Plan ................................................. 2-3 2.2.2 Complete Communities Direction Strategy (CCDS) ................. 2-5 2.2.3 Winnipeg Transit Oriented Development (TOD) Handbook........................................................................................ 2-8 2.2.4 Local Area Plans (LAPs) ................................................................. 2-8 2.3 Other Plans and Policy Context ................................................................. 2-9 2.3.1 Building Something Big (PMCR) .................................................... 2-9 3. Macro-Economic Trends and Local Employment Conditions .......................... 3-1 3.1 Provincial and Regional Economic Context ............................................ 3-1 3.2 Trends in Provincial and Regional Business Patterns ............................... 3-7 3.3 Regional Sector Opportunity and Gap Analysis ..................................... 3-8 4. Non-Residential Development Trends .................................................................. 4-1 4.1 Non-Residential Building Permit Trends, 2007 to 2016 ............................. 4-1 4.2 Office Market Overview and Trends ......................................................... 4-4 4.3 Industrial Market Overview and Trends ..................................................... 4-5 4.3.1 Industrial Market Overview ........................................................... 4-5 4.3.2 Industrial Development Costs and Employment Land Development Standards in the Manitoba Capital Region ...... 4-6 4.3.3 Employment Lands Current Conditions in the City of Winnipeg ........................................................................................ 4-13 4.3.4 Non-Residential Development Trends on Employment Lands, 2011 to 2016 ...................................................................... 4-16 4.3.5 Historical City-Wide Absorption on Employment Lands ......... 4-22 4.3.6 Industrial Absorption and Development Trends within the Manitoba Capital Region ........................................................... 4-25 4.4 Observations ............................................................................................... 4-30 Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\Winnipeg\Winnipeg Employment Land Study\!Final Report\Winnipeg Employment and Commercial Lands Study.docx 5. City of Winnipeg Population and Employment Growth Outlook ..................... 5-1 5.1 Overview of Regional and Local Growth Drivers .................................... 5-1 5.1.1 Growing Export Market .................................................................. 5-1 5.1.2 Strong Population and Employment Growth for the Regional Economy ......................................................................... 5-3 5.1.3 Local Growth Drivers ...................................................................... 5-3 5.2 Winnipeg CMA Population Growth Trends and Long-Term Population Forecast, 2016 to 2036 ............................................................. 5-4 5.3 Winnipeg CMA Employment Growth Trends and Employment Forecast, 2016 to 2023 ................................................................................. 5-5 5.4 City of Winnipeg Population Growth Trends and Long-Term Population Forecast, 2016 to 2036 ............................................................. 5-6 5.5 City of Winnipeg Long-Term Employment Forecast by Major Sector, 2016 to 2036 ..................................................................................... 5-7 5.5.1 City-Wide Employment Forecast ................................................. 5-7 5.5.2 City-Wide Employment Forecast by Major Sector .................... 5-8 5.6 Observations ............................................................................................... 5-15 6. Employment Land Structure and Vacant Land Supply ..................................... 6-1 6.1 Overview of Employment Land Structure ................................................ 6-1 6.1.1 Industrial Lands Inventory (ILI) ....................................................... 6-1 6.1.2 Lands Excluded from ILI ................................................................. 6-2 6.1.3 ILI Terminology ................................................................................. 6-2 6.1.4 Overall ILI Results ............................................................................. 6-3 6.1.5 Overall ILI Results & Distribution .................................................... 6-5 6.2 City of Winnipeg Vacant Employment Land Supply ............................ 6-10 6.3 Overview of Manitoba Capital Region Vacant Employment Land Supply................................................................................................. 6-13 7. Employment Land Needs Analysis ........................................................................ 7-1 7.1 Employment Growth Sector Influencing Employment Land Demand ........................................................................................................ 7-1 7.1.1 Planning for Industrial Sectors ....................................................... 7-1 7.1.2 Planning for the Knowledge-Based Economy ........................... 7-5 7.2 Employment Land Demand, 2017 to 2036 ............................................... 7-6 7.3 Observations ............................................................................................... 7-12 8. Commercial Structure and Supply ........................................................................ 8-1 8.1 Commercial Land Structure and Overview ............................................. 8-1 8.2 Overview of Retail Commercial Trends Impacting the City of Winnipeg ....................................................................................................... 8-1 8.2.1 Consumer Preferences .................................................................. 8-1 8.2.2 Public Policy .................................................................................... 8-2 8.2.3 Evolution of Retail Formats ............................................................ 8-3 8.2.4 Retailers ............................................................................................ 8-4 8.2.5 E-Commerce ................................................................................... 8-7 8.2.6 Retail Trends Summary ................................................................... 8-9 8.3 Existing Retail Space Inventory and Structure.......................................... 8-9 Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. H:\Winnipeg\Winnipeg Employment Land Study\!Final Report\Winnipeg Employment and Commercial Lands Study.docx 8.3.1 Coverage Ratios ........................................................................... 8-17 8.4 Retail Development Activity ..................................................................... 8-18 8.4.1 Recent Development Patterns within Suburban, Corridor and Downtown Areas .................................................................. 8-19 8.4.2 Retail Commercial Supply Summary ......................................... 8-23 8.5 Comparative Analysis of Winnipeg Retail Structure ............................. 8-23 9. Retail Commercial Land Needs Analysis ............................................................. 9-1 9.1 Study Approach and Assumptions ............................................................ 9-1 9.2 Vacant Commercial Supply Analysis ........................................................ 9-1 9.3 Retail Commercial Demand Analysis, 2016 to 2036 ............................... 9-3 9.3.1 Study Approach ............................................................................. 9-3 9.3.2 Basic Assumptions .......................................................................... 9-4 9.3.3 Demand Analysis ............................................................................ 9-4 PHASE 2: STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS