Kazakhstan | No 4 | July to August 2007 KAZAKHSTAN | Trends in Conflict and Cooperation The early elections of Majilis (the lower house of the Kazakhstani parliament) on 18 August drew a lot of international as well as domestic attention, since they were widely interpreted as a litmus test for Kazakhstani willingness to implement democratic reforms. Subsequent to the constitutional amendments, on 20 June President Nazarbaev, chair of the leading Nur Otan Party, called for elections to the Majilis. 98 of the 107 seats were to be distributed according to party lists. The remaining nine seats were given to individuals selected by the Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan, a body that is formed by the president among representatives of state bodies, national-cultural and other public associations and other persons. Since elections came as a surprise, the opposition parties were left with only a little time to prepare for a meaningful election campaign. The pre-election period demonstrated little progress toward democratic pluralism. Besides the ruling party Nur Otan (“The Fatherland’s Ray of Light”), the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) registered six opposition parties: Ak Zhol Democratic Party (“Bright Path”), All-National Social Democratic Party (NSDP), Kazakhstan Patriot’s Party, Rukhaniyat Party (“Spirituality”), Kazakhstan’s Social Democratic Party “Auyl” (Village) and the People’s Communist Party of Kazakhstan. The media generally presented the views of all political parties, yet slightly favored the ruling party. Some contestants, however, criticized the seven percent electoral threshold and the ban for parties to align in party blocks. The gender balance remained poor; only 56 out of 377 candidates were women. International election observers reported that the elections were conducted in a more transparent environment than previous elections. President Nazarbaev’s Nur Otan party won 88.5 percent of the votes, which entitles the party to all seats in parliament. None of the opposition parties were able to cross the nation-wide seven percent threshold (the NSDP secured 4.6 percent, Ak Zhol 3.2 percent of the vote). Still, the CEC noted that opposition parties received many more votes in the main cities than in rural areas. The electoral results did not come as a surprise and did not considerably differ from the 2004 parliamentary elections, in Country stability and Conflictive events (relative) which the opposition received only one seat in the Majilis. Nevertheless, a clear victory for Nur Otan was unexpected. Some observers explain those results with Nazarbayev’s role as a guarantor of stability, whereas others point to a weak opposition that does not provide a vivid alternative to the ruling party. It is blatantly obvious that policy-making in Kazakhstan is not defined by institutions such as elections, but by informal circles surrounding the president, mostly dominated by his family. Balancing the interests of the inner-circle plays a greater role in stabilizing the country than electoral results. Within this inner circle, fractures have been observed in the past months: President Nazarbaev’s ex-son-in- Source: FAST event data law Rakhat Aliyev sought refuge in Vienna (see below) and his daughter Dariga Nazarbaeva – a former member of the parliament – was excluded from the Majilis elections. Also against this background, the Majilis elections were a test of Nazarbaev’s ability to keep his grip on power and balance the interests of the various interest groups around him. The OSCE chairmanship bid continued to be the most pressing issue on Kazakhstan’s foreign policy agenda. Prior to the elections, German Foreign Minister Steinmeier announced that the compliance with international electoral standards will play an important role in the decision for Kazakhstan’s candidacy. After the elections, Washington called for a postponement of Kazakhstan’s OSCE chairmanship bid, citing the electoral system and calling the May constitutional amendments a maneuver by President Nazarbayev to strengthen his position. In an attempt to improve the country’s image, Kazakhstani Culture and Information Minister Yermukhamet Yertysbayev praised his country’s efforts to improve its record on freedom of speech during a speech to the OSCE Permanent Council on 26 July in Vienna. He made reference to a new, more liberal media law, which has, however, not yet come into effect. The law is to include the right to confidentiality of sources and the relaxation of registration rules. In December 2006 the OSCE Ministerial Council failed to achieve a decision on the Kazakhstani OSCE chairmanship. In November the OSCE foreign ministers will meet in Madrid to decide on the issue. Among others, Freedom House claims that the Kazakhstani chairmanship would have profound implications for the OSCE, since for the first time a state with grave democratic FAST Update | Kazakhstan | No 4 | July to August 2007 shortcomings would take over its lead. Many OSCE countries propose the postponement of Kazakhstan’s OSCE chairmanship until 2011 and wait for required democratic reforms to take place. The case of Rakhat Aliyev, President Nazarbaev’s ex-son-in-law, continued to attract national and international attention (for background information see FAST Update Kazakhstan 1/2007 and 3/2007). The scandal reached new dimensions after Austria on 8 August refused to extradite Aliyev to Kazakhstan. Austrian authorities stated that Aliyev could not expect a fair legal procedure in his home country. The decision raised public discontent in Kazakhstan, as many hoped that a trial would shed light on Rakhat Aliev’s role in the kidnapping and assaulting of Nurbank managers as well as the murder of TV host Anastasiya Novikova. Irrespective of Austria’s decision, Kazakhstan’s officials are searching for ways to prosecute Aliyev, which has led to speculations that he may even be tried in abstention. This was already done in 2001 to former Prime Minister Akezhen Kazhegeldin. Within the reporting period several incidents indicated that Islamic movements are increasing their visibility in Central Asia, especially Hizb ut -Tahrir – an Islamic movement that strives for the creation of an Islamic state, and which is banned in all Central Asian states. Compared to its neighboring countries, Kazakhstan has not yet encountered major problems with Hizb ut -Tahrir. However, on 1 August a trial against 30 members of Hizb ut- Tahrir began in Qaraghanda. Kazakhstan’s National Security Service (KNB) reportedly spent six months investigating members of the group. The suspects are accused of forming a criminal group, fomenting religious hatred and carrying out extremist activities. The KNB allegedly investigates not only Hizb ut-Tahrir but also other religious groups and their possible links to terrorist groups. However, NGOs report that alleged links to terrorist activities are only used as an excuse to jail political dissidents. Saken Tauzhanov, a journalist critical of the government, was killed by a truck while crossing a street in the downtown area of Almaty. According to Kazakhstani authorities, this was a routine traffic accident. However, at the time of his death Tauzhanov was engaged in writing satirical articles about the upcoming Majilis elections. The fact that during the past years several other journalists who opposed the government faced a similar fate, casts a worrisome shadow over Tauzhanov’s death. The Kazakhstani authorities’ decision to suspend work at the Kashagan oilfield has increased tensions between the government and international stakeholders. The dispute erupted when the operator Agip announced delays in the start of commercial production (ENI-Agip consortium holds an 18.52 percent stake, while the Kazakhstani KazMunayGaz owns only 8.33 percent). As a countermeasure, the Kazakhstani government called for a three–month suspension, accusing the consortium of breaking certain environmental rules. Simultaneously, the government is looking for ways to increase the share of KazMunayGaz by changing the entire contract. This case demonstrates the increasing self-confidence of the Kazakhstani government towards international stakeholders and their awareness of the strategic importance of the country’s mineral resources. Last year Russia's dispute with Shell resulted in the oil firm’s loss of control of a major oil field to Gazprom. As shown on the graph, despite a slight increase in conflictive events during the reporting period, Kazakhstan continues to be a fairly stable country. It remains to be seen how the electoral results will affect Kazahkstan’s chances of receiving the OSCE chairmanship. The Majilis elections demonstrated that Kazakhstan will continue along its path of a strong presidency – at least until the next presidential elections in 2012. In the meantime it is expected that at the international level President Nazarbaev will continue to maintain good relations with various global actors in order to increase foreign investment and to secure new export markets. A solution to the dispute over Kashagan is of profound importance for Kazakhstan, as its future wealth depends on the exploits from this oil field. Contact FAST International is the early warning program of swisspeace, FAST International covering 25 countries/regions in Africa, Asia and Europe. Based in Country Team: Kazakhstan Bern, Switzerland, the program is funded and utilized by an Sonnenbergstrasse 17 international consortium of development agencies, including the 3000 Bern 7 Austrian Development Agency (ADA), the Canadian International Switzerland Development Agency (CIDA), the Swedish International Development [email protected] Cooperation Agency (Sida) and the Swiss Agency for Development and www.swisspeace.org Cooperation (SDC). .