TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION: A CRITICAL REVIEW OF CURRENT KNOWLEDGE Patrick Kelly Melvin Kranzberg Co-Principal Investigators Frederick A. Rossini Norman R. Baker Fred A. Tarpley, Jr. Morris Mitzner Volume I The Ecology of Innovation Advanced Technology and Science Studies Group Georgia Tech Atlanta, Georgia 30332 February 1975 / This project was supported by the National Science Foundation, Office of National R & D Assessment, under Grant No. DA-39269. The views and recommenda- tions contained in this report are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect the official position of the National Science Foundation. TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION: A CRITICAL REVIEW OF CURRENT KNOWLEDGE The Georgia Tech Innovation Project Table of Contents Volume I - The Ecology of Innovation Patrick Kelly, Melvin Kranzberg, Frederick A. Rossini, Norman R. Baker, Fred A. Tarpley, Jr., Morris Mitzner Foreword - The Georgia Tech Innovation Project Chapter 1 - The Ecology of Innovation Chapter 2 - The World Outside Chapter 3 - The Process of Innovation: Organizational and Individual Contexts Chapter 4 - The Diffusion of Innovations Chapter 5 - Overview and Prospects Appendix - The Problems of Measurement Bibliography Volume II - Aspects of Technological Innovation Preface Chapter 6 - Inventors Thomas P. Hughes Chapter 7 - Technological Innovation and Natural Resources Nathan Rosenberg Chapter 8 - The Economics of Industrial Innovation Edwin Mansfield Chapter 9 - Technological Innovation in Firms and Industries. • • • Richard S. Rosenbloom Chapter 10 - Methodology for Behavioral Aspects of Innovation. Charles F. Douds and Albert H. Rubenstein Chapter 11 - Neglected Sectors of Innovation W Paul Strassmann Chapter 12 - Diffusion: Communication and Innovation in Organiza- tions Everett M, Rogers and John Dudley Eveland Chapter 13 - Technology Forecasting and Innovation James R. Bright Chapter 14 - Technological Innovations and Economic Growth • • • • Simon Kuznets Volume III - Cross-Classifications of Bibliographical Data Base Part 1 - Cross-Classifications Part 2 - Bibliography Volume IV - Selected Literature Abstracts Volume I The Ecology of Innovation Patrick Kelly, Melvin Kranzberg, Frederick A. Rossini, Norman R. Baker Fred A. Tarpley, Jr., Morris Mitzner Table of Contents Page Foreward Chapter 1 - The Ecology of Innovation Chapter 2 - The World Outside 47 Chapter 3 - The Process of Innovation: Organiza- tional and Individual Contexts 121 Chapter 4 - The Diffusion of Innovation 298 Chapter 5 - Overview and Prospects 380 Appendix - The Problems of Measurement 418 Bibliography 434 FOREWORD A technological innovation may be a new product, process, or device. It may be new "under the sun," or -- in the case of diffusion -- new only "under this roof." In either case, it may constitute a relatively minor improvement, or a major break- through. Its economic and/or social impact may be negligible or quite significant -- and for the same innovation this impact may vary from one level of aggregation to another. Thus inno- vations themselves admit of considerable diversity. To this diversity we add several dimensions of complexity when we consider the process by which innovations are conceived, developed, introduced, and diffused. In organizational terms, the process of technological innovation may be multi-phase and multi-year, requiring a substantial commitment of resources, and the cooperative interaction of diverse skills and functions -- or just the opposite. In economic terms, it may be a high or low risk venture. In social-psychological terms, it may be highly disruptive to the "culture" of the firm, or handled routine- ly with little stress. Informationally it may require large "flows" from the outside, or the in-house information "pool" may be adequate to the task. To these several dimensions of complexity inherent in the innovation process we must add still other "indigenous" influences to be reckoned with. Among these are; the influences of corporate policy and strategy, organizational structure, location and func- tion of the R & D laboratory, supervisory attitudes and prac- tices, work and social groups within the laboratory, the com- petence, motivations, and mind-sets of research personnel, etc. All of these variables and influences in the immediate contexts to which the process is indigenous must be recognized as im- pinging upon its conduct. In addition to these indigenous influences, there are others which form a part of the larger context of technological innovation. Among these "exogenous" impingments are: (1) in stitutions, such as industry and market structure, and the host of governmental policy, regulatory, and taxing agencies; (2) en dowments such as material and energy resources, labor, capital, and knowledge; and (3) values which serve to channel, facilitate and inhibit the innovative thrust. This degree of "natural" complexity inherent in the pro- cess of technological innovation, is almost matched by the com- plexity introduced by the "inquiring systems" that study it. Since the process itself -- at least in its increasingly domi- nant form -- is relatively new, having experienced most of its growth since World War II, its study has only in the last two decades really emerged as an academic focus. As a result, it lacks the well-developed theoretical underpinning that character- izes a more mature intellectual enterprise. But like the pro- cess itself, its study has grown very rapidly -- especially in its analytic and empirical dimensions -- with research being conducted in an unusually large number of academic disciplines. ii Researchers in each discipline have sought -- and found -- the variables with which they were most familiar and have studied their influence on the innovation process largely in isolation from their colleagues in other disciplines. Thus the-state-of- the art knowledge is fragmented along disciplinary lines. As a direct result of this fragmentation, research results have become scattered throughout a very large number of professional journals. This makes it doubly difficult for even the conscien- tious researcher to maintain a state-of-the-art awareness. As a result of such complexities -- inherent in both the process itself and its study -- there is a need to bring together, assess and integrate what is known. This need has two parts; first we need to see the whole picture in order to stimulate research on the interrelations among variables, and second we need to pull together what is known in order to see where the knowledge gaps and weaknesses are. This need to pull things together is made more pressing by a host of quite practical considerations. Technological inno- vation has been -- and continues to be -- a dominant problem- solving response in our society, and indeed, in much of the world. And while it may be argued that many of the societal problems we now face -- economic, environmental, social, etc. -- are in some measure the result of unforeseen and deleterious consequences of past technological achievements, this does not lessen our present dependence on this response. In fact it often increases it, while at the same time increasing our iii responsibility to anticipate and avoid the undesirable spin- off consequences. Thus our present knowledge of the technologically innova- tive response to societal problems is such that integrative, cumulative research is difficult, management of the process is largely trial and error, and policy making is extremely "iffy." The needs of all three of these groups -- the scholars, the managers, and the policy makers -- require attention. We have tried to keep all three in mind in this critical review of cur- rent knowledge. * ,* The research and writing of this volume and the overall responsibility for the_project was shared by an interdisciplinary research team of six scholars. The members of this Georgia Tech Innovation Project group are: Dr. Patrick Kelly, Head of the Department of Social Sciences, whose special interests are the philosophy of technology and epistemology. Dr. Melvin Kranzberg, Callaway Professor of the History of Technology who is a pioneer in this field and editor of Technology and Culture. Dr. Frederick A. Rossini, Department of Social Sciences, whose background includes a doctorate in physics, post doctoral work in the philosophy of science, and involve ment in a NASA technology assessment program. Dr. Norman R. Baker, School of Industrial and Systems Engineering (now Chairman of the Department of Quanti- tative Analysis, Graduate School of Business Administra- tion, University of Cincinnati), whose specialty is management science, especially R & D management. Dr. Fred A. Tarpley, College of Industrial Management, who is an economist specializing in the economics of regulation. iv Dr. Morris Mitzner, Department of Social Sciences, who is a sociologist specializing in informal organizational behavior. This group began its work with a fairly clear-cut division of labor in the usual multi-disciplinary mode. As it turned out, however, the level of cooperation interaction was so high that credit for specific chapters of sections of this volume is im- possible to assign, i.e., in the course.of things it became a truly interdisciplinary project. Because the innovation process is itself so complex and the literature concerning it so disparate and diffuse, it was apparent that additional expertise was needed. Hence, nine out- standing research scholars were asked to prepare complementary state-of-the-art assessments of