Issue 431 • 28 January 2021 www.africa-energy.com Project finance constrained as sovereign debt builds up policymakers agree more action is needed to counter debt distress and unlock funds for the energy transition, but there are few signs that a more effective financial architecture will emerge any time soon. Meanwhile concerns over rising sovereign debt are feeding into hesitancy over new lending, writes Jon Marks oe Biden’s presidency offers the prospect of the world’s Group (WBG)/International Monetary Fund-led Debt Service largest economy re-engaging with the international Suspension Initiative (DSSI). Since taking effect on 1 May Jorder, with a raft of policies that include giving new 2020, DSSI has delivered some $5.7bn in relief to around 46 impetus to climate change action, a more stringent attitude to countries out of 73 eligible for a temporary suspension of their autocratic rule and coordinating actions that stimulate debt service payments to official bilateral creditors. economies in coronavirus distress ( AE 429/21 ). Even before Covid-19 emerged a year ago, concern had been building over Originally set to end on 31 December, DSSI has been rising sovereign debt across Africa, some of it ‘hidden’ and extended through to June 2021, and the initiative scored unmanageable; this may now be an acute problem as emerging another important boost when China – which has traditionally market and developing country (EMDC) governments signal avoided joining international initiatives – agreed to participate. varying degrees of distress ( AE 416/18 ). However, the DSSI’s future is in doubt after end-June. Some Biden’s administration will be expected to join (and drive) a countries have avoided signing up, fearing ratings agencies more coherent global response to countering debt distress in would respond negatively. Benin did not take part as it planned € sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and other vulnerable regions. a 1bn ($1.22bn) eurobond issue last year, which it finally announced on 12 January. Among the more successful efforts to mitigate economic impacts of the coronavirus pandemic has been the World Bank Continued on page 3 Solar finance Sudan hopes Sassou seeks pre-election debt deal Jersey-registered Brighter Life A mid-January agreement President Denis Sassou Nguesso Paris weekly Jeune Afrique Kenya 1 Ltd, a local currency between Sudan and South confirmed on 23 January that he reported this was being off-balance sheet financing Sudan to expand oil would seek a fourth consecutive negotiated by senior government vehicle set up to purchase solar cooperation has raised mandate when elections are held officials and Frédéric Fatien of on 21 March. The 77-year-old Dubai-registered Worldwide home system receivables from expectations of improved president will again stand as Energy Marketing & Consulting. d.light design inc’s Kenyan relations yielding material candidate of the ruling Parti Nothing has been heard of a subsidiary, has been expanded benefits for both states from Congolais du Travail. similar proposed deal to to $127m following a $15m the South’s underutilised restructure $730m-plus of debt Before then Sassou is hoping for owed to Glencore. investment by Norway’s hydrocarbons reserves. Sudan’s progress with Brazzaville’s Norfund. The transaction, government, facing a cash and International Monetary Fund- Congo held a referendum in which follows $20m from the fuel crisis, is eager for the South led debt restructuring, agreed in 2015 to remove an age limit of US International Development to ramp up oil supplies. But 2019 but still incomplete ( AE 70 for candidates and a ban on Finance Corporation, is a boost Juba’s upbeat forecasts of higher 416/21 ). presidents serving more than two terms. for d.light Kenya in its efforts production look optimistic Brazzaville is expected soon to to become financially given the security and receive another IMF monitoring Sassou has cumulatively spent 36 sustainable and cashflow commercial considerations, and mission, which it hopes can be years in power since he first positive as it improves energy familiar obstacles are blocking impressed by a restructuring of became president in 1979, access to 1.9m people. concrete progress. over $960m of debt owed to making him one of the world’s Trafigura. longest-serving leaders. —S ee page 5 —S ee page 13 iSSn 1463-1849 Cross-border information Contents FOCUS REGION: Project finance constrained 1 CONGO REPUBLIC: Sassou seeks debt deal 1 REGION: Concerns over Chinese debt finance 3 POWER KENYA: d.light receivables vehicle grows to $127m 5 KENYA: Kipeto start-up 7 Issue 431 • 28 January 2021 NIGERIA: Globeleq gains foothold 7 Incisive analysis since 1998 TANZANIA: Consulting services for Malagarasi 7 Editor CONGO REPUBLIC: Supply crunch 9 Thalia Griffiths BOTSWANA: Abridged IRP released 10 [email protected] SOUTH AFRICA: TBI enters renewables market 10 Power editor Dan Marks SOUTH AFRICA: Reports of expedited procurement 11 [email protected] ZIMBABWE: Kariba dam works on course 11 Editorial director ZAMBIA: Covid delays Kafue Gorge Lower 12 Jon Marks POINTERS: Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Region 12 [email protected] ALGERIA: ‘Renewables Sonatrach’ planned 13 Cartographer David Burles UPSTREAM OIL AND GAS SUDAN/SOUTH SUDAN: Reality checks ambition 13 Contributing editors John Hamilton, Martin Burdett, Chiwoyu Sinyangwe (Lusaka), COTE D’IVOIRE: Tullow exits most onshore blocks 14 Franc ois Misser (Brussels) ̧ NIGERIA: Elumelu takes OML 17 stake 15 Production CAMEROON: New Age to seek Etinde extension 15 Shirley Giles ANGOLA: Subsea 7 to build lean gas structure 15 NAMIBIA: BW Energy raises Kudu stake 16 Sales and Service EGYPT: Shell takes a Red Sea block 16 Direct:+44 (0) 1424 721 667 Fax: +44 (0) 1424 721 721 EGYPT: Energean to develop shallow-water gas 16 Email: [email protected] FINANCE AND POLICY Manager MOZAMBIQUE: Vale plans Moatize sale 17 Tara Mulvey DR CONGO: Sustainable lithium project 17 [email protected] DIARY African Energy subscriptions include each new issue in PDF and access to an online archive dating back to 1998. EVENTS: What’s on around the region 18 www.africa-energy.com AFRICAN ENERGY VIEW REGION: Far to go for nascent hydrogen economy 20 2021 Cross-border information. All rights reserved. Data and information published in African Energy is provided to Cross- border Information (CbI) by its staff and network of correspondents through extensive surveys of sources and published with the intention of being accurate. CbI cannot insure against or be held responsible for inaccuracies and assumes no liability for any loss whatsoever arising from use of such data. No portion of this publication may be photocopied, reproduced, retransmitted, put into a computer system or otherwise redistributed without prior authorisation from Cross-border Information. Registered office: 4 Bank Buildings, Station Road, Hastings, East Sussex TN34 1NG, United Kingdom. Directors: JJ Marks, JM Ford, JD Hamilton, NJ Carn, E Gillespie 2 AFRICAN ENERGY • ISSUE 431 • 28 JANUARY 2021 Focus Heavy costs and opacity raise concerns over Chinese debt finance China’s decision to participate in the World Bank-led Debt Service electricity supply contracts underpinned by Chinese public support, Suspension Initiative (DSSI) was a rare indication that Beijing was leveraging long-term finance they would be unlikely to secure on a willing to join an international initiative to tackle rising financial standard commercial basis – a competitive advantage when tendering pressures on developing economies ( see main article ). Its concerns about for big-ticket hydropower or coal projects. its African and other liabilities means Chinese lending “fell off a cliff in These facilities are often underwritten by the state-owned China 2020”, an AIX panelist observed on 19 January, but Beijing’s Export Credit Insurance Company (Sinosure), which is willing to commitment remains huge: the African Energy Live Data platform guarantee projects that commercial competitors might avoid. Chinese records some $38bn-worth of Chinese investment committed to SOEs thus often exhibit much greater risk appetite when it comes to African power projects in 2014-19. securing projects in difficult markets. Understanding the extent and quality of Chinese debt remains an Despite Beijing’s DSSI participation, Chinese financial flows remain inexact science. US and other critics characterise this huge investment distinguished by their opacity. Beijing releases very little information, as a geostrategic play, with ‘debt trap’ narratives to explain the in contrast to the norms established by traditional multilateral and provision of sometimes unaffordable loans, secured against assets that bilateral lenders. African Energy ’s analysis of existing data and research China might later seize. on Chinese lending suggests that possibly half of flows to developing However, African Energy ’s analysis suggests the strategic imperative for countries are not picked up by major international databases. In securing power projects may rather be rooted in a desire to secure new addition, very little Chinese lending is concessional (as understood by export markets for Chinese state companies. While Chinese overseas international institutions’ definitions of soft lending and grants), which investment has slowed markedly since 2017 – prompted by a cooling means it is likely to be considerably more expensive than other official global economy, financial market pressures, international tensions, lending.