Bulgaria at a glance Location and key data • Area : 110,910 sq. km • Number of inhabitants (2011): 7.4 mln • Capital and largest City : Sofia • Other cities : Plovdiv, Varna, Bourgas, Ruse, Stara Zagora, Pleven, Veliko Tarnovo • Natural Resources : oil, gas, coal, iron ore, copper, lead, zinc, antimony, chromite, gold, silver, magnesium, nickel, pyrite, marble, limestone, salt, arable land • Major industries : electricity, water and gas supply; food, beverages and tobacco; machinery and equipment; base metals, chemical products, coke, refined petroleum • Currency : Lev (BGN). Fixed exchange rate with Euro. • EU Member since 2007, NATO Member since 2004 • Government type: parliamentary republic • Last government elections: July 2009 Page 1 Bulgaria at a glance Geography, landmarks and economic overview Kozloduy NPP Veliko Tarnovo Rousse Dobrudja Belogradchik Balchik Sofia Varna Sunny Beach Sozopol Maritza Iztok Sandanski Bansko Plovdiv Page 2 Macroeconomic indicators show consistent pre-crisis economic growth and quick post-crisis recovery Real GDP Growth Inflation (HICP) Bulgaria EU-27 Bulgaria EU-27 6.6% 6.4% 6.5% 6.4% 6.2% 12.0% 1.7% 0.4% 7.4% 7.6% 6.1% 6.0% 3.4% 2.5% 3.0% -5.5% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Unemployment FDI Inflow 12.2% Bulgaria EU-27 € mln. 9,052 10.7% 10.4% 9.2% 9.1% 9.1% 6,222 6,728 6.9% 6.3% 3,152 2,736 2,437 1,209 1,341 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Bulgarian National Bank, Eurostat Page 3 FDI in Bulgaria comes mostly from EU countries and is concentrated in four main sectors FDI by host country, 1996-2011 (€ mln.) FDI flows by industry, 1996-2011 (€ mln.) (1) Netherlands 6,018 Real Estate 8,204 (2) Austria 5,809 Finance 7,652 (3) Greece 3,664 Trade 6,522 (4) UK 2,733 (5) Germany 2,523 Manufacturing 6,479 (6) Cyprus 2,257 Construction 2,705 (7) Russia 1,486 Energy 2,699 (8) USA 1,283 Telecom 2,260 (9) Italy 1,279 (10) Hungary 1,272 Other 2,664 Source: Bulgarian National Bank Page 4 Why invest in Bulgaria? • Political and business stability – EU and NATO member – Currency board – Low budget deficit and government debt • Low cost of doing business – 10% corporate tax rate – Lowest cost of labor within EU • Access to markets – European Union / EFTA – Russia – Turkey / Middle East • Educated and skilled workforce • Government incentives Page 5 Government financial indicators are remarkable not only in the region, but on a pan-European scale Average government debt (2006-2011) 130% 120% Greece 110% Italy 100% 90% Belgium 80% Portugal France Hungary 70% Germany United Kingdom Malta Iceland Austria 60% Ireland Cyprus 50% Poland Spain Netherlands Finland Turkey Sweden 40% Croatia Norway Slovakia 30% Denmark Lithuania Slovenia Czech Republic 20% Romania Latvia Bulgaria Luxembourg 10% Estonia 0% -11% -10% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 15% 16% Average budget deficit/surplus (2006-2011) Source: Eurostat Page 6 Bulgarian economy maintains its excellent performance despite global challenges BG Budget deficit for 2012, % of GDP Bulgaria was the only European country with increased credit rating by Moody’s in 2010 and 2011 Egypt -10.9% Japan -9.8% United Kingdom -8.3% Spain -8.0% Greece -7.0% United States -7.0% Estonia India -5.6% Czech Republic -5.0% France -4.5% Netherlands -4.1% Lithuania Poland -3.7% Bulgaria Denmark -3.6% Euro Area -3.3% Hungary Italy -3.0% Ireland -2.8% Hungary Turkey Austria -2.6% Brazil -2.5% Turkey -2.0% China -1.6% Sweden 0.0% Switzerland 0.0% Germany 0.1% Greece 01/10 04/10 07/10 10/10 01/11 04/11 07/11 10/11 Source: Eurostat, The Economist, National Statistics Page 7 Bulgaria has one of the lowest business costs in Europe Lowest corporate income tax rate Cost of electricity for industrial Lowest cost of agricultural land in Europe users is 70% of the EU average in the European Union Estonia 0.062 €/kWh, Bulgaria 1,595 € / ha, Bulgaria 10% 2011 2008 Romania 2,000 Bulgaria 0.064 Romania 16% Hungary 3,000 Romania 0.080 Hungary 19% Greece 4,000 Turkey 0.086 France 5,000 Slovakia 19% Germany 0.090 Czech Rep. 5,000 EU average 0.092 Czech Rep 19% Poland 5,000 Hungary 0.104 Germany 10,000 Croatia 20% Czech Rep 0.110 Spain 11,070 Turkey 20% Slovakia 0.123 UK 11,400 Source: Eurostat; Savills Page 8 inations ors passing through Bulgaria Bulgaria is only 3 hours flight from all major dest in Europe, Russia and the Mediterranean region Strategic geographic location Major transport corrid Page 9 S a I i s C s d u n R a EU and Turkey and EFTA Middle East The government supports specific industries under the Investment Promotion Act (IPA) • Investments must be related to the following sectors: – Manufacturing – Research & development – Education – Healthcare – High-tech services – Warehousing and logistics • Minimum investment amounts must exceed €10m – €3.5 in regions with high unemployment and €2m for investment projects in high-tech services • Benefits for certified investors include: – Shortened administrative procedures – Preferential acquisition of state or municipal land – Financial support for professional training / education – Infrastructure subsidies – Labor cost subsidies – Individual administrative services Page 10 Attractive FDI sectors • Services: – Transport and Logistics – Information technologies – Outsourcing of business processes – Health and tourism related to healthy lifestyle • Industry: – Transport equipment and machine building – Electronics and Electrical engineering – Chemical industry – Food and Agriculture • Resources: – Mining – Oil Page 11 GLOBAL INVESTMENT DATA ANALYSIS Presentation by Courtney Fingar, Editor, fDi Magazine Investing in Bulgaria conference 6 December 2012, London About fDi Intelligence The Financial Times Ltd’s dedicated division for FDI: • fDi Magazine: reporting on the business of globalization • fDi Markets: crossborder investment monitor • fDi Benchmark: corporate location assessment tools • fDi Reports: customised reports and data research • fDi Atlas: investment incentives navigator • Bespoke FDI events and investor roundtables • www.fDiIntelligence.com : online portal About the data • Focus on greenfield FDI using the fDi Markets database • Greenfield FDI is defined as new or expansion FDI projects which create investment and jobs and is the main target for most IPAs globally • Greenfield FDI is different to official FDI flows data (ie, UN, IMF), which includes capital crossing borders typically with 10%+ stake in a foreign entity (ie, M&As) • Data analytics becoming more important both as a means for corporates to identify, and justify, expansion decisions and also as a means for government agencies to present fact-based arguments for why a company should invest in their location • Advanced methodologies like location assessment matrices are essential Global FDI trends • Global recession hit FDI hard in 2009 with a steep decline in FDI • FDI project levels slowly recovered in 2010 and 2011; capex and jobs still at 2006 levels • Europe holding back a bigger FDI recovery • BRICS: India and China saw growth last year (15%, 3%); Russia saw decline • Canada and Australia booming as source countries for FDI • Software and IT the top sector by projects (+18% growth in 2011); metals the top sector for capex; renewable energy the fastest growing sector • Greenfield FDI set to decline in 2012 Source: The fDi Report 2012 Global FDI picture Figures for 2011 Source: The fDi Report 2012 Renewable energy Project numbers increased 6x since 2003, +20% since 2010 $91bn capex US: top recipient as well as source country Figures for 2011 Expansions: a growing part of FDI • Since the global economic crisis, expansion projects have become more important • Accounted for 23% of global capital investment in 2011 – the strongest share since fDi data began in 2003 • Expansions seen as a lower-risk and lower-cost approach than new facilities Figures for 2011 Europe Europe FDI: -3% over 2010 Top sector: Renewable Energy CEE/CIS: -4% Bulgaria: +15% Figures for 2011 FDI in CEE and CIS region: 2003-2012 • Through October 2012, total of 21,140 FDI projects recorded – a 14.6% share of global FDI • Total capital investment: $670 billion; average investment size of $98 million Source regions for CEE/CIS investment Top destination countries in the region Top industry sectors for FDI in the region FDI in Bulgaria • FDI projects peaked in 2008 • Domestic market growth potential is the top motive cited by companies (50% of projects), followed by skilled workforce availability and natural resources • Top source countries: Germany, US, Spain; but UK does largest investments • Alternative energy provides the largest overall volume and highest average investment, at $220m per project • In 2012 (TBC), decrease in projects #s and capex; increase in jobs created.