Master thesis in Sustainable Development 281 Examensarbete i Hållbar utveckling Climate change implications on transboundary water management in the Jordan River Basin: A Case Study of the Jordan River Basin and the transboundary agreements between riparians Israel, Palestine and Jordan Maisa Young DEPARTMENT OF EARTH SCIENCES INSTITUTIONEN FÖR GEOVETENSKAPER Master thesis in Sustainable Development 281 Examensarbete i Hållbar utveckling Climate change implications on transboundary water management in the Jordan River Basin: A Case Study of the Jordan River Basin and the transboundary agreements between riparians Israel, Palestine and Jordan Maisa Young Supervisor: Ashok Swain Evaluator: Neil Powell Copyright © Maisa Young and the Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University Published at Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University (www.geo.uu.se), Uppsala, 2015 Content 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Climate change and water scarcity ................................................................................................................ 1 1.1.1. Transboundary Water Management ............................................................................................................ 2 1.1.2. The Middle East .......................................................................................................................................... 2 1.1.3. The Jordan River Basin ............................................................................................................................... 3 1.1.4. Problem formulation and research aim ....................................................................................................... 3 1.2. Outline ............................................................................................................................................................ 4 1.3. Delimitations .................................................................................................................................................. 4 2. Theoretical framework ................................................................................................................................... 4 2.1. International water law .................................................................................................................................. 4 2.2. Transboundary Water Management – cooperation of shared waters ............................................................. 5 2.2.1. Transboundary Water Management in practice .......................................................................................... 5 2.2.2. Water allocation in water agreements ......................................................................................................... 6 2.2.3. Transboundary Water Management and hydrology ................................................................................... 6 2.3. Closed basins and solutions to water scarcity ................................................................................................ 7 2.4. Climate change and securitization of water sources ...................................................................................... 8 2.5. Summary ........................................................................................................................................................ 8 3. Background ................................................................................................................................................... 10 3.1. Environmental context in Jordan ................................................................................................................. 10 3.1.1. Water situation .......................................................................................................................................... 12 3.2. Environmental context in Israel ................................................................................................................... 13 3.2.1. Water situation .......................................................................................................................................... 15 3.3. Environmental context in Palestine ............................................................................................................. 15 3.3.1. Water situation .......................................................................................................................................... 17 4. Methodology .................................................................................................................................................. 18 4.1. The scope of the case ................................................................................................................................... 18 4.2. Qualitative research ..................................................................................................................................... 18 4.3. Case study .................................................................................................................................................... 18 4.3.1. Process tracing .......................................................................................................................................... 19 4.4. Validity and data collection ......................................................................................................................... 21 5. Findings .......................................................................................................................................................... 22 5.1. The Jordan River Basin: context, climate and water consumption .............................................................. 22 5.1.1. Regional climate change impacts .............................................................................................................. 25 5.2. Transboundary water management in the Jordan River Basin .................................................................... 25 5.2.1. Israel-Jordan Peace Treaty ........................................................................................................................ 26 5.2.2. Israel and Palestine Interim Peace Agreement .......................................................................................... 28 6. Analysis .......................................................................................................................................................... 30 6.1. TWM mechanisms ....................................................................................................................................... 30 6.1.1. TWM and climate variability .................................................................................................................... 31 6.1.2. Conflicts .................................................................................................................................................... 32 6.2. Conclusions .................................................................................................................................................. 33 7. Discussion and reflections ............................................................................................................................ 33 8. References ...................................................................................................................................................... 35 List of Graphic Attachments Figure 1 – Shows the process of closure of a basin over time. Source: (Molle et al., 2007) .................................... 7 Figure 2 – Map of Jordan. Source: (AQUASTAT; FAO (b), 2008, p.2) ............................................................... 11 Figure 3 – Map of Israel. Source: (AQUASTAT; FAO (a), 2008) ........................................................................ 14 Figure 4 – Map of the Occupied Palestinian Territory. Source: (AQUASTAT; FAO (c), 2008) .......................... 16 Figure 5 – The Jordan River Basin. Source: (UN-ESCWA & BGR, 2013) ........................................................... 24 Figure 6 – Chronology of the Jordan River Basin. Source: (AQUASTAT; FAO (d), 2015) ................................. 26 II Climate change implications on transboundary water management in the Jordan River Basin: A Case Study of the Jordan River Basin and the transboundary agreements between riparians Israel, Palestine and Jordan MAISA YOUNG Young, M., 2015: Climate change implications on transboundary water management in the Jordan River Basin: A Case Study of the Jordan River Basin and the transboundary agreements between riparians Israel, Palestine and Jordan. Master thesis E in Sustainable Development at Uppsala University, No. 281, 39 pp, 30 ECTS/hp Abstract – Scientific Summary The purpose of this thesis is to explore the relationship between the impacts of climate change and transboundary water management (TWM) mechanisms. The thesis does so through a case study of the transboundary water agreements between Israel, Palestine and Jordan – states that share the transboundary waters in the Jordan River Basin (JRB), a basin that lies in a region of high political tensions and decreasing precipitation. By using empirical climate data on precipitation, temperature and general climate change projections for the basin, the author seeks to