Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis of the Lake Chad Basin 2018 Update Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis of the Lake Chad Basin 2018 Update 2 Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis of the Lake Chad Basin | 2018 Update Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................5 1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................................................................7 1.1 Context ...............................................................................................................................................................................................8 1.1.1 The Interlinked Threats to the Lake Chad Basin ................................................................................................8 1.1.2 The Potential for Success ...............................................................................................................................................9 1.2 Objectives .......................................................................................................................................................................................10 2 Methodological Approach ..........................................................................................................................................................11 2.1 Recent Reports and Initiatives .............................................................................................................................................13 2.2 Changing Priorities ....................................................................................................................................................................13 2.3 Revised Key Transboundary Issues ....................................................................................................................................14 3 Achievements of the TDA / SAP ..............................................................................................................................................15 3.1 Review of 2005 TDA ...................................................................................................................................................................16 3.2 Impact of the 2005 TDA and 2008 SAP .............................................................................................................................17 3.3 Summary Recommendations ...............................................................................................................................................19 4 Update of Baseline Information ..............................................................................................................................................20 4.1 Geographical Scope ...................................................................................................................................................................21 4.2 Lake Chad Sub-basins ...............................................................................................................................................................28 4.2.1 Lake Chad ...........................................................................................................................................................................28 4.2.2 Chari – Logone Basin ....................................................................................................................................................31 4.2.3 Komadugu – Yobe Basin ..............................................................................................................................................32 4.3 Climate Variability and Change ...........................................................................................................................................33 4.3.1 Climate Prediction Models ........................................................................................................................................33 4.3.2 Future Temperature and Precipitation ................................................................................................................33 4.3.3 Hydrologic Predictions ................................................................................................................................................34 4.3.4 Future Ecosystem Conditions ..................................................................................................................................34 4.4 Water Resources ..........................................................................................................................................................................35 4.4.1 Surface Water Resources .............................................................................................................................................35 4.4.2 Groundwater Resources ..............................................................................................................................................38 4.4.3 Water Quality ...................................................................................................................................................................42 4.4.4 Water Demands ...............................................................................................................................................................42 4.5 Natural Resources .......................................................................................................................................................................44 4.6 Protected Areas ............................................................................................................................................................................45 4.7 Socio-economic Activities ......................................................................................................................................................48 4.7.1 Security ................................................................................................................................................................................48 4.7.2 Population, Demographics, and Migration ........................................................................................................50 4.7.3 Poverty, Economic Structure, and Market Sectors .........................................................................................55 4.7.4 Market Circuits, Conflict, and Food Security .....................................................................................................58 4.7.5 Gender .................................................................................................................................................................................61 4.8 Regional and National Institutional Bodies and Legal Aspects ............................................................................63 4.8.1 The Water Charter in Regional Governance ......................................................................................................64 4.8.2 National Governing Bodies........................................................................................................................................64 5 Priority Transboundary Problems ..........................................................................................................................................67 5.1 Introduction to Main Problems ...........................................................................................................................................68 5.2 Problem 1: Variability in hydrological and hydrogeological regime ..................................................................68 5.2.1 Description of Problem ...............................................................................................................................................68 5.2.2 Main Ecosystem and Socio-economic Impacts ...............................................................................................69 5.2.3 Linkages with other Transboundary Issues .......................................................................................................69 5.2.4 Causal Chain Analysis ..................................................................................................................................................70 5.2.5 Knowledge Gaps..............................................................................................................................................................71 3 5.3 Problem 2: Biodiversity Degradation ................................................................................................................................71 5.3.1 Description of Problem ...............................................................................................................................................71 5.3.2 Main Ecosystem and Socio-economic Impacts ...............................................................................................71 5.3.3 Linkages with other Transboundary Issues .......................................................................................................72 5.3.4 Causal Chain Analysis ..................................................................................................................................................72