BEER MARKET IN POLAND FLANDERS INVESTMENT & TRADE MARKET SURVEY BEER MARKET IN POLAND Flanders Investment & Trade Poznań Embassy of Belgium – ul. Bukowska 12, pok. 119 – 60-810 Poznań - Poland T: +48 61 865 38 13 – E-mail: [email protected] Beer market in Poland | November 2014 0 1. A macro economic overview Basic information about Poland AREA 312,679 km2 POPULATION 38.5 million CAPITAL Warsaw: 1.7 million 16 Voivodeships, 314 Poviats, 2479 Municipalities ADMINISTRATIVE Link to the map: DIVISIONS https://administracja.mac.gov.pl/adm/baza-jst/mapa- administracyjna/278,MAPA-ADMINISTRACYJNA.html The Sejm, the lower chamber of the Polish parliament (460 representatives), the LEGISLATIVE BRANCH Senat, the upper chamber of the Polish parliament (100 representatives). Next parliamentary election: October 2015 President (5-year term), Council of Ministers (4-year term). EXECUTIVE BRANCH Next presidential elections: May 2015 Next local elections: November 2018 JUDICIAL BRANCH Supreme Court, common courts, administrative courts, military courts TIME ZONE GMT +1 CURRENCY Złoty (PLN); exchange rate 1 EUR = ca. 4.22 PLN (11.2014) Source: Polish Information and Foreign Investment Agency GDP In 2013 the Polish GDP amounted to EUR 391 billion. There’s a 3.3% rise anticipated for 2014: Year EUR billion € Growth 2011 365 4,8% 2012 382 1,8% 2013 391 1,7% 2014 n.a. Forecast: 3,3% Source: Central Statistical Office 1 Poland has 23th biggest GDP in the world: Source: Ministry of Treasury Republic of Poland Inflation and labour market 2011 2012 2013 2014 (estimation) Inflation (%) 4.3 3.7 0.9 0.2 Unemployment 12.5 13.4 13.9 13.5 rate (%) Source: Central Statistical Office In 2013 the inflation rate decreased to 0.9%. The estimated value for 2014 is 0.2%. The registered unemployment rate in 2013 in Poland amounted to 13.9%. In this year an average remuneration in the private sector was ca. EUR 918. Foreign trade The transformation to open economy led to dynamic increase in trade volume. Value of exports raised from 1991 almost 14 times to USD 206,1 billion in 2013. In this period similar changes of imports volume took place – it increased 13.5 times and reached USD 208.8 billion. Export value for 2013 (EUR 155 billion) is 2,6 higher than value estimated for 2004 (EUR 59.7 billion. Poland’s import value increased almost 2.2 times comparing it to the value calculated for 2004 (EUR 71.4 billion) and it amounted to EUR 157 billion. 2 Poland rank as the world’s 26th biggest exporter and 25th biggest importer in 2013: Year Export Import Balance Dynamic EUR billion Export (%) Import (%) 2003 47.399 60.183 -12 784 109.4 103.4 2004 59.698 71.354 -11.656 125,9 118,6 2005 71.423 81.170 -9.746 119,6 113,8 2006 87.926 100.784 -12.858 123,1 124,2 2007 101.839 120.389 -18.551 115,8 119,5 2008 116.244 142.448 -26.204 114,1 118,3 2009 98.218 107.529 -9.311 84,5 75,5 2010 120.373 134.188 -13.815 122,6 124,8 2011 136.694 152.568 -15.875 113,6 113,7 2012 143.456 154.040 -10.584 104,9 101,0 2013 154.994 156.978 -1.984 108,0 101,9 Source: Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Poland Source: Ministry of Treasury Republic of Poland 3 Structure of imports and exports in 2013: In million EUR Percentage Category Export Import Balance Export Import Agricultural and food 20.427 14.313 6.115 13,2 9,1 products Mineral products 7.515 19.463 -11.949 4,8 12,4 Chemical products 21.902 27.643 -5.741 14,1 17,6 Leathers 738 942 -205 0,5 0,6 Wood and paper 7.115 5.303 1.811 4,6 3,4 Light industry 5.609 7.633 -2.023 3,6 4,9 Ceramic products 4.027 2.031 1.996 2,6 1,3 Metallurgical 16.941 16.290 651 10,9 10,4 products Electromechanical 60.959 56.570 4.389 39,3 36,0 products Other 9.717 6.676 3.041 6,3 4,3 Source: Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Poland 2. Trade between Belgium and Poland Belgium remains a major trading partner to Poland with shares which in 2013 amounted to 3.39%. Poland was 11th most important Belgium’s customer in 2013 and its 17th most important supplier. The value of goods turnover between Belgium and Poland amounted almost to EUR 9.1 billion, with a trade deficit for Poland with Belgium: EUR 2.37 billion. In 2013 there was a 5.9% rise in value of Belgian exports and 11.9% rise in value of imports. Jan-Mar 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Exports (EUR 4,128.1 4,948.1 5,479.9 5.414.5 5,731.3 1,608.6 mln) Imports (EUR 2,464.9 2,838.9 3,170.8 3,004.5 3,361.1 931.7 mln) Trade 1,663.2 2,109.2 2,309.1 2,410.0 2,370.2 676.9 balance (EUR Jan-Mar mln) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Variations of -20.1 19.9 10.7 -1.2 5.9 14.7 exports (%) Variations of -12.4 15.2 11.7 -5.2 11.9 17.0 imports (%) Source: Belgian Foreign Trade Agency 4 According to information published by GUS (Polish Statistical Office) main groups of products in trade exchange between Poland and Belgium in 2013 were: Exported to Belgium: Mechanical and electric devices: 17.96% Motor vehicles: 16.92% Plastics: 11.69% Metallurgical products: 9.97% Imported from Belgium: Plastics: 17.58% Products of chemical industry: 16.96% Metallurgical products: 11.99% Motor vehicles: 13.76% Mechanical and electric devices: 10.59% 3. Polish gastronomy Polish gastronomy plays more and more significant part in Polish economy. In years 2000 – 2010 an average growth of nominal turnover (8,4%) was higher than nominal GDP growth (7,3%). Hotel and gastronomy industry is an extremely significant business partner for many crucial branches of economy, also when comes to brewing industry. In 2010 Polish state earned EUR 69 million from excise which came from sales of alcohol beverages in a hotel and gastronomy business. In spite of the fact that beer that is sold in Polish restaurants involves only 10 percent of the market, beer belongs to the group of basic products of Polish gastronomy. According to results of research carried out by GfK Polonia (research agency which conducts research of Polish gastronomy market) beer is the second group of products that provides turnover in Polish gastronomy. It yields about one firth of turnover of this sector. Beer is the most popular product ordered in restaurants as far as beverages are concerned. Every third customer buys beer. Beer lager is a very popular beverage in Poland and Poles are among the 5 top nations consuming the most beer in Europe. According to Central Statistical Office its consumption in Poland amounts to 100 liters. The Polish beer market growth has been extraordinarily dynamic since the 1990s. The first decade of the 21st century brought significant growth of the consumption of alcohol in Poland amounting to 30%. The half of this growth was induced by beer which is the most frequently consumed alcohol in Poland. It doesn’t result in satisfying sales in bars and pubs because Polish customer drinks beer mainly at home. Research shows that this situation is about to change. Brief information about beer available in a gastronomy sphere: Beer is available in 45 thousand of Polish restaurants – 70 percent of all restaurants. As far as seasonal restaurants are concerned beer is the product that generates turnover on the same level as other beverages. Beer is available in all pubs and nightclubs – 11600 places and in around 95% of restaurants and restaurants in hotels (about 10000) 60% of coffee houses also provide beer. In Poland sales of beer have recently raised significantly in a sector off-trade. 5 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Change Beer consumption on-trade 20% 15% 15% 13.5% 10% -10% (hospitality) Beer consumption 80% 85% 85% 86.5% 90% +10% off-trade (retail) Average consumer price in on-trade 2.86EUR 2.85 EUR 2.69 EUR 2.83 EUR 2.84 EUR -0.5% (1-litre including taxes) (EUR) Average consumer price in off-trade 1.38 EUR 1.36 EUR 1.30 EUR 1.26 EUR 1.24 EUR -9.9% (1-litre including taxes) (EUR) Source: The Brewers of Europe In 2007 this trend may be a result of substantial fall of amount of bars. Off-trade sector managed better changes (increase) of rates of excise and VAT tax. This situation resulted in bigger differences of prices between off-trade sector and hotel-gastronomy business. Moreover smoking ban in public places including restaurants and bars might have an influence on this situation. 4. Market saturation Between April 2013 and March 2014 the whole market grew by 0.3%, compared to 4,2% increase a year earlier. The market is worth almost EUR 6,7 billion fuelled by vodkas with low alcohol content, radler (beer with nonalcoholic drink) and Portugal wines. The biggest part belongs to beer. According to report of The Brewers of Europe 146 thousand of people have job due to the production and consumption of the beer. 11% belongs to the brewery business.