Swedish National Election Studies Department of Political Science Report University of Gothenburg 2020.03.19 2020:2 www.snes.gu.se Voter perceptions of policy outcomes and responsibility attributions 2010-2018 Simona Koria Ylva Larsson Valforskningsprogrammets rapportserie Sedan 1950-talet genomför forskare knutna till Valforskningsprogrammet i Göteborg empiri- ska undersökningar av hur den svenska demokratin mår och utvecklas. Rapportserien är vår viktigaste publikationskanal för att bidra till samhällets kunskapsförsörjning på demokrati- området. Målsättningen är att sprida grundläggande fakta och forskningsresultat som rör val och väljarbeteende till en bred publik av forskare, studenter, journalister, politiker och allmän- het. The Swedish National Election Studies Program working report series Since the 1950s, the researchers associated with the Swedish National Election Studies Program at the Department of Political Science, University of Gothenburg, conducts empirical research on the well-being and development of the Swedish democracy. The working report series is one of our main publication outlets. The aim is to publish basic facts and research results about elections and voting behavior to a broad audience of researchers, students, journalists, politi- cians and the public. Party abbreviation = Left Party (V) = Social Democratic Party (S) = Green Party (MP) = Center Party (C) = The Liberals (L) = Conservative Party (M) = Christian Democratic Party (KD) = Sweden Democrats (SD) Citation: Simona Koria & Ylva Larsson (2020). Voter perceptions of policy outcomes and responsibility attributions 2010-2018. SNES Working paper 2020:2. University of Gothenburg: Department of Political Science. Editor of the SNES working report series: Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson Report 2020:2 Voter perceptions of policy outcomes and responsibility attributions 2010-2018 SIMONA KORIA YLVA LARSSON Sammanfattning I Valundersökningarna 2010, 2014 och 2018 har de svarande i förvalsstudien fått möj- lighet att först värdera politiska resultat på ett antal olika politikområden, och därefter tillskriva ansvar för utvecklingen till sittande regering. Frågeinstrumentet avser att åstadkomma en större detaljkännedom och ämnesbredd i studier av retrospektivt an- svarsutkrävande. Hur väljare uppfattar resultat (political outcome) av den förda rege- ringspolitiken och vilket ansvar som associeras till positiv eller negativ resultatutveck- ling är en avgörande byggsten i modeller som söker förklara varför väljare belönar eller bestraffar sittande regeringar. I den här rapporten presenteras översiktlig statistik över hur olika grupper av väljare har uppfattat politiska resultat och hur de fördelat ansvaret för resultaten på ett antal politikområden under perioden 2010–2018. Vi använder additiva index för att studera hur bland annat vänster-högerideologi och politisk kunskap påverkar hur väljare upp- fattar utfall och tillskriver ansvar. Abstract The respondents in the election surveys of 2010, 2014 and 2018 have had the oppor- tunity to first evaluate the political outcomes of a number of policy areas, and then attribute responsibility of the perceived political outcomes to the government in power. The survey instruments aim to reach a greater understanding of political accountability by tapping more policy domains of retrospective responsibility attribution than the economy. The voters’ perceptions of political outcomes of the government policies in place as well as the responsibility associated to positive or negative political outcomes are crucial components in explanatory models of how, when, and why voters reward or punish governments in power. In this report, general statistics on how different groups of voters have perceived political outcomes and how they have attributed responsibility for these outcomes on a number of policy areas during 2010-2018 are presented. We make use of additive indexes to explore how political partisanship, ideological predispositions, and political knowledge affect how voters perceive political outcomes and attribute responsibility. 1 SNES Report 2020:2 Figure 1A. Swedish voters’ perceptions of political outcomes in 2010, 2014 and 2018 (means) Source: Swedish National Election Studies 2010, 2014 and 2018 Comment: Additive index of the perceived outcomes of employment, the Swedish economy, school and education, health care, immigration, law enforcement, social welfare and the environment of the Swedish voters. Figure 1B. Swedish voters’ attributions of responsibility in 2010, 2014 and 2018 (means) Source: Swedish National Election Studies 2010, 2014 and 2018 Comment: Additive index of the responsibility attributions for the employment, the Swedish economy, school and education, health care, immigration, law enforcement, social welfare and the environment of the Swedish voters. 2 SNES Report 2020:2 Figure 2A. Swedish voters’ perceptions of political outcomes in 2010, 2014 and 2018 by policy areas Source: Swedish National Election Studies 2010, 2014 and 2018 Comment: The Swedish voters’ perceived outcomes of the employment, the Swedish economy, school and education, health care, immigration, law enforcement, social welfare and the environment. 3 SNES Report 2020:2 Figure 2B. Swedish voters’ attributions of responsibility 2010, 2014 and 2018 by policy areas Source: Swedish National Election Studies 2010, 2014 and 2018 Comment: The Swedish voters’ responsibility attributions for the employment, the Swedish economy, school and education, health care, immigration, law enforcement, social welfare and the environment. 4 SNES Report 2020:2 Figure 3A. Swedish voters’ perceptions of political outcomes in 2010, 2014 and 2018 by level of political knowledge Source: Swedish National Election Studies 2010, 2014 and 2018 Comment: Additive index of the perceived outcomes of employment, the Swedish economy, school and education, health care, immigration, law enforcement, social welfare and the environment of the Swedish voters divided by their objective level of political knowledge. High level of political knowledge is coded if the respondent got more than 65 percent correct answers on the knowledge questions in appendix. Figure 3B. Swedish voters’ attributions of responsibility in 2010, 2014 and 2018 by level of political knowledge Source: Swedish National Election Studies 2010, 2014 and 2018 Comment: Additive index of the responsibility attributions for the employment, the Swedish economy, school and education, health care, immigration, law enforcement, social welfare and the environment of the Swedish voters divided by their objective level of political knowledge. High level of political knowledge is coded if the respondent got more than 65 percent correct answers on the knowledge questions in appendix. 5 SNES Report 2020:2 Figure 4A. Swedish voters’ perceptions of political outcomes in 2010, 2014 and 2018 by ideological identification Source: Swedish National Election Studies 2010, 2014 and 2018 Comment: Additive index of the perceived outcomes of employment, the Swedish economy, school and education, health care, immigration, law enforcement, social welfare and the environment of the Swedish voters divided by their subjective identification on a left-right scale ranging from 0 to 10, where 0 is left, 10 is right and 5 is neither left nor right. “Left” is ranging from 0 to 3, centrist is ranging from 4 to 6 and right is ranging from 7 to 10. Figure 4B. Swedish voters’ attributions of responsibility in 2010, 2014 and 2018 by ideological identification Source: Swedish National Election Studies 2010, 2014 and 2018 Comment: Additive index of the responsibility attributions for the employment, the Swedish economy, school and education, health care, immigration, law enforcement, social welfare and the environment of the Swedish voters divided by their subjective identification on a left-right scale ranging from 0 to 10, where 0 is left, 10 is right and 5 is neither left nor right. “Left” is ranging from 0 to 3, centrist is ranging from 4 to 6 and right is ranging from 7 to 10. 6 SNES Report 2020:2 Figure 5A. Swedish voters’ perceptions of political outcomes 2010, 2014 and 2018 by party vote Source: Swedish National Election Studies 2010, 2014 and 2018 Comment: Additive index of the perceived outcomes of employment, the Swedish economy, school and education, health care, immigration, law enforcement, social welfare and the environment of the Swedish voters divided by the party they voted for in the election. Figure 5B. Swedish voters’ perceptions of political outcomes 2010, 2014 and 2018 by party vote Source: Swedish National Election Studies 2010, 2014 and 2018 Comment: Additive index of the responsibility attributions for the employment, the Swedish economy, school and education, health care, immigration, law enforcement, social welfare and the environment of the Swedish voters divided by the party they voted for in the election. 7 Table 1A. Swedish voters’ perceptions of political outcomes in 2010, 2014 and 2018 by groups (means) The Swedish School & Social Employment Economy Education Health Care Immigration Law Enforcement Welfare The Environment Observations Gender Male, 2018 +1.07 +1.10 -0.098 -1.15 -1.89 -1.83 - - 11 753 Male, 2014 -0.02 +1.13 -1.14 - - - -1.38 - 1 991 Male, 2010 -0.25 +1.45 +0.37 -0.32 -0.32 - -0.57 +0.33 1 999 Female, 2018 +0.95 +0.85 -1.03 -1.28 -1.58 -1.58 - - 11 643 Female, 2014 -0.43 +0.66 -1.37 - - - -1.50 - 1 980 Female, 2010 -0.18 +1.09 +0.32 -0.51 -0.32 - -0.54 +0.45 1 964 Age 18-22, 2018 -0.13 -0.33 -0.93