Performance Evaluation of Off-Grid Power Supply for Rural Electrification in Kenya: The Case of Habaswein Hybrid Minigrid Isaac Nzue Kiva A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment for the Degree of Master of Science in Energy Technology in the Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology 2020 DECLARATION This research is my original work and has not been submitted for the award of a degree in any other University. Signature ……………………………… Date ……………………. Isaac Nzue Kiva This research study report has been submitted for examination with our approval as the University supervisors. Signature ……………………………… Date ……………………. Dr. Jeremiah K. Kiplagat KPLC, Kenya Signature ……………………………… Date ……………………. Prof. Robert Kinyua JKUAT, Kenya i DEDICATION I would like to dedicate this thesis to my family, who have always supported and encouraged me in my personal, professional and academic pursuits, and remain my most important source of inspiration as I look forward to more opportunities and challenges in the future. This work is especially dedicated to my children, who I am very proud of, and for whom I would like to set an example of working hard to achieve the best they can. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I sincerely thank all the people who have contributed to the successful completion of this thesis. First and foremost, thank you to my family for their wholehearted love and support. Secondly, thank you to the Ministry of Energy for sharing WindyCator data on wind potential for Wajir, and for providing me with the time and flexibility to undertake my studies. To the Kenya Power and Lighting Company Ltd., thank you for facilitating access to the Habaswein Power Generation Station, and sharing information and experience painstakingly collected by your staff over many years of operation of the station. I would also like to thank my supervisors Dr. Jeremiah K. Kiplagat and Prof. Robert Kinyua in Kenya for their confidence in me and their knowledgeable guidance in the development of this thesis. Finally, I would also like to thank Prof. Andrea Micangeli and his team from Sapienza University in Italy, for lending their support in my HOMER analysis. All your understanding, encouragement and technical advice is immensely appreciated. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION ......................................................................................................... I DEDICATION ........................................................................................................... II ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ....................................................................................... III LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................. VIII LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................... X LIST OF APPENDICES ....................................................................................... XIII LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ............................................. XIV ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................... XVI CHAPTER ONE ....................................................................................................... 17 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 17 1.1. Background of the Study ............................................................................. 17 1.2. Statement of the Problem ............................................................................. 20 1.3. Justification of the Study ............................................................................. 21 1.4. Objectives of the Study ................................................................................ 23 1.4.1. Main Objective ..................................................................................... 23 1.4.2. Specific Objectives ............................................................................... 23 1.5. Research Questions ...................................................................................... 23 1.6. Scope of the Study ....................................................................................... 24 iv 1.7. Thesis Structure ........................................................................................... 24 CHAPTER TWO ...................................................................................................... 27 LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................................................ 27 2.1. The Concept of Sustainable Development................................................... 27 2.2. Solar and Wind Energy Resource Potential ................................................. 28 2.3. The Relevance of Hybrid Systems in Off-Grid Electrification Projects ..... 29 2.4. Brief History of Habaswein Power Generation Station ............................... 32 2.5. Methodologies for Evaluating Off-Grid Electrification Projects ................ 33 2.6. Design Optimization of Hybrid Systems ..................................................... 34 2.7. The Hybrid Optimization Model and Problem Formulation ....................... 36 2.7.1. The Solar System Optimization Parameters ......................................... 41 2.7.2. The Wind System Optimization Parameters ........................................ 42 2.7.3. The Diesel System Optimization Parameters .............................................. 43 2.7.4. The Battery Energy Storage System Optimization Parameters ................... 44 2.7.5. The Overall Diesel System Optimization Parameters ................................. 44 CHAPTER THREE.................................................................................................. 45 METHODOLGY ...................................................................................................... 45 3.1. Chapter Overview ........................................................................................ 45 3.2. Study Area ................................................................................................... 45 3.2.1. Habaswein Ward .................................................................................. 47 v 3.3. Data Collection ............................................................................................ 47 3.3.1. Quantitative Data .................................................................................. 48 3.3.2. Qualitative Data .................................................................................... 49 3.4. Simulation and Optimization ....................................................................... 51 3.4.1. Simulation and Optimization with HOMER PRO Software ................ 51 3.5. Limitations and Treatment of Data .............................................................. 53 3.5.1. Assumptions in the Analysis ................................................................ 53 CHAPTER FOUR .................................................................................................... 54 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS............................................................................. 54 4.1. Chapter Overview ........................................................................................ 54 4.2. General Operation Parameters of the Habaswein Hybrid Minigrid ............ 54 4.2.1. Current Status of Habaswein Power Generation Station ...................... 54 4.2.2. Modalities of Operation of the Power Generation Station ................... 56 4.2.3. Maintenance of the Power Generation Station ..................................... 59 4.2.4. Fuel Procurement.................................................................................. 60 4.2.5. Characteristics of Customers Connected to the Minigrid..................... 62 4.2.6. Customer Growth Trends ..................................................................... 68 4.3. Solar and Wind Energy Resource Potential for Power Generation in Habaswein ............................................................................................................... 75 4.3.1. Solar Energy Resource Potential for Habaswein.................................. 75 vi 4.3.2. Wind Energy Resource Potential for Habaswein ................................. 78 4.4. Performance Evaluation of Habaswein Diesel, Solar and Wind Hybrid System ..................................................................................................................... 81 4.4.1. Theoretical Performance of a 30 kW Solar PV System ....................... 81 4.4.2. Theoretical Performance of 60 kW Wind System ................................ 84 4.4.3. Actual Performance of Habaswein 30 kW Solar PV System ............... 87 4.4.4. Performance of the Wind Power System.............................................. 91 4.4.3 Electricity Generation ........................................................................... 93 4.4.4 Peak Power Demand............................................................................. 96 4.4.5 Daily Load Curve ................................................................................. 96 4.4.6 Renewable Energy Penetration Levels ................................................. 97 4.4.7 Specific Fuel Consumption ................................................................ 101 4.5. Optimization of the Habaswein Power Station .......................................... 103 4.5.1. Effect