IMPACT OF STRUCTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS ON VULNERABILITY OF COASTAL COMMUNITIES TO DISASTER Mohammad Aminur Rahman Master in Disaster Management; Bachelor of Urban and Regional Planning Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy School of Civil Engineering and Built Environment Science and Engineering Faculty Queensland University of Technology 2019 Keywords Bangladesh, southwest coastal region, Khulna, Satkhira, Coastal Embankment Project (CEP), development, disaster management, polder, political ecology, social- ecological system, shrimp, sustainable development, transformation, vulnerability, water resources development. Impact of Structural Development Projects on Vulnerability of Coastal Communities to Disaster i Abstract Initiated in the early 1960s, the Coastal Embankment Project (CEP) in Bangladesh brought more than 1.2 million hectares of low-elevation coastal land under cultivation through a complex system of embankments and drainage sluices. A major milestone in the history of water resources management in Bangladesh, CEP served as a catalyst for socio-economic development of the coastal community over the following decades. However, there were some unintended negative consequences too. Human intervention into complex hydro-geo-morphological settings of the Gangetic Delta manifested a number of social and ecological challenges. As the embankments had cut off the tidal plains from the rivers, silt started to be deposited on the riverbeds which eventually caused drainage congestion inside the polders (the island-like embanked landmasses). Meanwhile, significant changes of landuse occurred as saltwater shrimp farming took over traditional crop cultivation. Increased global demand of shrimp encouraged people to take up shrimp farming instead of crops but they soon realized that the trade-off was unjustified. Shrimp cultivation increased soil salinity inside the polders rendering the land unsuitable for any kind of cultivation. Even the kitchen gardens and the fruit plants that had been growing after the embankments were constructed, disappeared from the landscape owing to high soil salinity. But restricting shrimp cultivation is not an easy task as this has become business of the powerful elites. Meanwhile a cyclone in 2009 badly damaged the embankments in the south-west coastal region resulting in longstanding devastation. The protected landscape became subject to tidal flooding sweeping off the decades of development gains. Unauthorized modifications to facilitate shrimp cultivation and inadequate maintenance were identified as the causes behind the weakening of the embankments that breached in many points when the cyclone-induced storm surge struck. This research explains how the embankment system helped communities prosper and why later it caused some negative consequences that placed the coastal community at stake. The fundamental issues that shaped the research problem are whether the negative consequences that arose from the coastal embankments were foreseen during the implementation, and if lack of operation and maintenance of the structures have a role. In doing so, first, an analysis of the social, environmental and political factors that interact in the formulation and adoption of infrastructure development projects was carried out. Then, the role of physical infrastructure in the transformation of the coastal communities has been explained. This study considers the poldered southwest of Bangladesh as a complex Social-Ecological System (SES) and adopts the vulnerability framework developed by Turner et al. (2003) in the analysis of vulnerability that emerged over time in the region as the social-ecological transformations took place. The underlying causes of vulnerability have been analysed using elements of Political Ecology as an overarching approach. An extensive review of historical documents and the findings from field level interviews carried out in 3 polders informed this research. Findings from the study show that embankments have significantly changed the bio-physical and hence the socio-economic landscapes in the southwest coast. In fact, the poldered southwest has turned into a unique Social-Ecological System. While some of the negative impacts were evident at the time of project Impact of Structural Development Projects on Vulnerability of Coastal Communities to Disaster iii implementation, many of them evolved with the transformation of the social- ecological system. Absence of proper operation and maintenance and, moreover, unanticipated alterations to the embankments accelerated the rate of deterioration of structural integrity which led to widespread and longstanding damages to the community. iv Impact of Structural Development Projects on Vulnerability of Coastal Communities to Disaster Table of Contents Keywords .................................................................................................................................. i Abstract ................................................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ......................................................................................................................v List of Figures ......................................................................................................................... ix List of Tables .......................................................................................................................... xi List of Abbreviations ............................................................................................................ xiii Statement of Original Authorship ...........................................................................................xv Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................. xvii Chapter 1: Introduction ...................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background .....................................................................................................................1 1.2 Problem Statement ..........................................................................................................1 1.3 Rationale of the Study ....................................................................................................3 1.4 Aim, Objectives and Research Questions .......................................................................4 1.5 Contribution to Knowledge ............................................................................................5 1.6 Organization of Thesis ....................................................................................................6 Chapter 2: Literature Review ............................................................................. 9 2.1 The Concept of Development .........................................................................................9 2.2 Unintended Consequences of Infrastructure Development ..........................................13 2.3 The Relationship between Risk, Hazard and Vulnerability ..........................................17 2.4 The Concept of Vulnerability .......................................................................................18 2.4.1 The Double Structure of Vulnerability ...............................................................21 2.4.2 The Disaster Risk Community Framework ........................................................22 2.4.3 Turner et al’s Sustainability Science Framework ..............................................24 2.4.4 The Pressure and Release (PAR) Model ............................................................25 2.4.5 The Holistic Approach Model ............................................................................28 2.4.6 The UNISDR Framework...................................................................................29 2.4.7 The BBC (Bogardi-Birkmann-Cardona) Framework .........................................31 2.4.8 Summary and Synthesis .....................................................................................31 2.5 Research Gap ................................................................................................................33 Chapter 3: Research Design .............................................................................. 37 3.1 Conceptual Framework .................................................................................................37 3.1.1 Social-Ecological System (SES) and its Transformation ...................................38 3.1.2 Turner et al’s Framework for Vulnerability Assessment of Coupled Human-Environment System .............................................................................41 3.1.3 Political Ecology as an overarching approach ....................................................43 Impact of Structural Development Projects on Vulnerability of Coastal Communities to Disaster v 3.2 Research Inquiry and Approach ................................................................................... 48 3.3 Case Study Locations ................................................................................................... 48 3.4 Data Collection ............................................................................................................ 50 3.4.1 Document Review.............................................................................................