On the road to the Antalya G20 Summit Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist International Energy Agency Istanbul, 15 May 2015 © OECD/IEA 2015 The G20 share of key indicators GDP Population Energy demand Energy investment Carbon dioxide emissions 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Share of global The G20 has a key role to play on energy issues due to its sheer weight in global balances and as energy security & climate challenges go beyond national boundaries © OECD/IEA 2015 Africa: Rich in resources Gas OilGas Oil Hydro Fossil fuels Wind Oil Oil Oil Gas Solar Coal In the last 5 years, almost 30% of global oil & discoveries were in sub-Saharan Africa; the region has vast untapped renewables potential, notably hydropower & solar © OECD/IEA 2015 Africa: Rich in resources, but poor in supply Share of population with access to electricity: More than 50% Less than 50% Inclusive & robust economic growth is impossible without energy access; two-thirds of the population in sub-Saharan Africa (620 million people) still live without electricity © OECD/IEA 2015 Fossil fuel subsidies impose enormous economic, social & environmental costs 600 120 Eastern Europe/Eurasia Latin America Africa 500 100 Asia Middle East 400 80 300 60 Billion dollars (nominal) 200 40 100 20 2007 2008 20 09 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Momentum for reform is building – including in India, Indonesia & Mexico – yet fossil fuel subsidies still totalled around $500 billion in 2014, or 4 times those to renewable energy © OECD/IEA 2015 As coal remains the backbone of many power systems, action is needed to mandate high-efficiency plants Projected coal-fired plant additions 2014 – 2040 Rest of the World Rest of the world China India Other ChinaAsia India 1 365 GW Each – and every – percentage point improvement in the efficiency of the coal-fired fleet, cuts global coal use by almost the current demand of Germany © OECD/IEA 2015 Antalya to Paris – the last chance to reach the 2°C goal ? World CO2 budget for 2 °C Average annual low-carbon ~2300 Gt investment, 2014-2040 100% 2.0 2012-2040 75% 1.5 CCS Nuclear Renewables 50% 1900-2012 1.0 Efficiency Trillion dollars (2013) dollars Trillion 25% 0.5 Share of budget used 2013 Central For 2°C in Central Scenario Scenario target TheBuilding entire on global commitments CO2 budget from to 2100 G20 countriesis used gathering in Antalya, Paris must send a strong signal that increases low-carbon investment to four times current levels © OECD/IEA 2015 In an often volatile region, Turkey plays a pivotal role in energy security Global oil & gas reserves in proximity of Turkey (billion barrels of oil-equivalent) RUSSIA (413) TURKEY CASPIAN (238) NORTH IRAQ IRAN AFRICA (166) (117) (361) MIDDLE EAST MEDITERRANEAN (780) (28) Turkey’s proximity to almost 70% of the world’s oil & gas reserves enhances its attraction as a place to do business & as a gateway to other major consumers © OECD/IEA 2015 Strong demand has made Turkey a bright spot in Europe's gas market Growth in natural gas demand, 2000-2014 40 bcm 30 20 Turkey 10 0 Europe - 10 Europe - 20 excluding Turkey - 30 - 40 - 50 Natural gas demand in Turkey has more than tripled since 2000, reaching almost 50 bcm in 2014; a level higher than that of France © OECD/IEA 2015 The need for G20 action on energy Secure & stable energy markets are critical for sustained economic growth in the G20 and beyond Energy access in sub-Saharan Africa is a prerequisite for inclusive & robust growth Without clear direction from G20 economies, the world is set for warming well beyond the 2°C goal Considering the global economic & geopolitical landscape, the Turkish G20 Presidency comes at an ideal moment The IEA stands ready to continue to support Turkey © OECD/IEA 2015 .