On the Basis of Consent: Subordinate-State Agency and US Hegemony in Latin America (1990-2010) Quintijn Benjamin Kat Institute of the Americas UCL PhD, International Relations of the Americas 1 I, Quintijn Benjamin Kat, confirm that the work presented in this thesis is my own. Where information has been derived from other sources, I confirm that this has been indicated in the thesis. 2 Abstract Most theories of hegemony in international relations assume an active role of, first, the hegemon, which upholds the hegemonic order, and, second, challenger states, which are powerful enough to threaten this order. Subordinate states are generally seen as passive objects within the order, and their agency and influence are largely unexplored in hegemony studies. This is surprising because in several International Relations (IR) theories subordinate-state consent forms an essential feature of hegemony. This project, therefore, questions subordinate-state passivity and, instead, connects consent to agency, which leads to an assessment of the role of subordinate-state agency in the workings of hegemonic order. It hypothesizes that subordinate-state agency is an underpinning element of hegemony, which will be strengthened if the hegemon heeds and addresses the interests of subordinate states, leading these to support it. When the hegemon fails to take subordinate-state interests into account, these states will challenge and weaken hegemony. This work tests the hypothesis by examining US hegemony in Latin America in the post-Cold War era, a period in which the United States established hegemony with significant levels of consent. Through process tracing, the project examines four case studies that fall within two themes of particular interest to the United States. These are free-trade negotiations (Brazil and Peru) and counternarcotics cooperation (Colombia and Bolivia). Within each theme, the selection of one case of consent and one case of dissent allows for comparison between active cooperation with, and active obstruction of, the United States. The study finds that in each of the cases subordinate-state agency was indeed highly influential and, at times, even decisive in the turn of events. This finding suggests the need for a revaluation of subordinate-state agency in hegemony studies and renewed attention to the interaction between hegemonic and subordinate states in IR. 3 Impact Statement At a time in which rising powers openly question the US-led liberal-international order while offering alternative conceptions of international order and seeking to expand their spheres of influence, there is a need for a detailed understanding of the workings of hegemony in international relations. US hegemony may decline further and eventually end, or it may rebound as it has before. In either case, international order is clearly undergoing change. Questions about what drives such change and about how hegemonic order functions, therefore, deserve the attention of both scholars and practitioners. My research provides a partial answer by focuses on one underpinning element of US hegemony in Latin America in the post-Cold War era: subordinate-state consent and agency. The thesis is of interest to scholars within the overlapping research fields of Latin American politics, International Relations theory, and US foreign policy. First, the four case studies provide rich detail that may inform further analysis of each individual case and of US-Latin American relations more broadly. Second, the presented analysis may be of value to theory development in two currently evolving subfields within International Relations, ie, hegemony studies and the ongoing debates on the influence and agency of smaller or weaker states. Uniting both, my research makes an important contribution to analysis of the makeup or configuration of hegemony by assessing the role and impact of smaller and weaker states in hegemonic order. Additionally, I suggest the need for, and present a first possible step toward, a theory of subordinate-state agency. The empirical detail of the thesis may also be of interest to practitioners in government, intergovernmental organizations and non-governmental organizations whose work touches on counternarcotics policy, free-trade negotiations, or US-Latin American relations more broadly. Such interest need not be limited to practitioners working in areas related to the four case-study states (Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia and Peru), but may be equally valuable to those working in or with other Latin American states involved with the United States in matters related to counternarcotics policy or free trade, as well as states in other world regions. For example, my findings can give policymakers insights into the factors that decide the outcomes of interactions between hegemonic and smaller states that they can use in their professional life when confronted with similar interactions. The dissemination of the findings of the thesis will primarily occur through scholarly journals and/or a possible monograph. One peer-reviewed article, based on two of the case studies, has already appeared. Because my research potentially has explanatory power for the currently perceived crisis of US hegemony, its findings could be disseminated to a larger, non-expert audience through a long-read piece. It is precisely in that area, the scholarly and 4 wider understanding of the workings of international order, that my research can have its largest impact. 5 Contents Acknowledgements 8 List of acronyms 10 One Hegemony, Agency and Latin America 13 IR theory and US-Latin American relations 16 Subordinate-state agency 36 Methodology and case selection 46 Two Deference: Plan Colombia 56 The dominant narrative 57 What Samper left behind 61 Pastrana’s plan 66 Colombian requests for US involvement 72 The US-militarization narrative refuted 80 US conditions and Colombian acceptance 85 Colombian agency and US hegemony 93 Three Defiance: US-Bolivian Relations under Morales 97 Aid, trade, neoliberalism and the War on Drugs 98 The rise of Evo Morales 113 Social unrest and the election of Morales 116 President Morales and the United States 120 US overreach and popular dissent 127 Bolivian defiance of US hegemony 133 Four Dissent: Brazil’s Challenge in de FTAA 137 The inception of the FTAA 138 Brazil in the early 1990s 144 The negotiations 149 The end of the FTAA 172 US demands and Brazilian agency 181 6 Five Consent: Peru’s Pursuit of the US-PTPA 187 Peru’s interest in free trade 188 The negotiations 194 US congressional ratification 214 The Peruvian push for free trade 225 Six Subordinate-State Agency and US Hegemony 229 References 244 Appendix: Interview methods and list of interviews 286 7 Acknowledgements When several years ago I commenced my doctoral studies, I felt a mixture of excitement and uncertainty. While the prospect of conducting a large research project of my own design from beginning to end promised to be an exhilarating experience in many ways, at the same time the task of turning my four-page research proposal into a book-sized piece of academic writing seemed daunting, to say the least. As it turned out, reality superseded my expectations in both regards. Had I known the true amount of work and perseverance required, I might have reconsidered embarking on this journey altogether, but I would have done so only for having failed to fully comprehend beforehand the thrills that accompany immersed academic study and the immense sense of reward felt when endeavour begets result. I would also have underestimated the essential support provided by a variety of people and institutions that knowingly and unknowingly created an environment that amplified the joys and lessened the difficulties encountered along the way. The most important of these has been, unquestionably, Kevin J. Middlebrook, without whose guidance and supervision this thesis would not have turned out the way it has. Kevin’s experience has been an invaluable resource to rely upon at every step of the way, and I have much of my academic and personal development over the last few years to thank him for. I would be hard pressed to overstate the number of things I learned from him. I am also indebted to Tony McCulloch, who served as second supervisor, provided insightful comments on earlier drafts of the thesis and, together with Par Engstrom, sat on the committee that upgraded me from MPhil to PhD student status. Their feedback, at that early stage, played a profound part in refining my project. Furthermore, thanks go out to administrative staff at the Institute of the Americas, whose patient and swift responses to any queries I had were greatly appreciated. Cynthia McClintock kindly agreed to be my institutional host at the George Washington University during my research visit to the Department of Political Science. Similarly, Amâncio Jorge de Oliveira hosted my stay with the Institute of International Relations at the University of São Paulo. Besides the institutional arrangements that they both made, I thank them for taking the time to discuss my project, which resulted in useful feedback. While conducting fieldwork in Peru, the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru generously allowed me to make use of its library’s facilities. Furthermore, I am grateful for insightful conversations I had with William Leogrande, Arturo Valenzuela, Kevin Healy, and Lawrence Heilman, and for the help I received from Kathryn Ledebur, Arlene Tickner, Michael Shifter and Johannes van Mourik in the contacting of potential interviewees.