DECEMBER 2016 | SWISS-THAI CHAMBER OF COMMERCE | E-NEWSLETTER #77 TOP NEWS SUPPORTED BY Deutsche Bank: Not following the Fed SEA Helpdesk: Thailand Geographical Indications Interview: Joerg Reding School News: Dr. Remo Gysin visited RIS Christmas market and celebration 2016 Legal Update: Thai Legal News Flash from Roedl & Partner THE PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE DEAR FRIENDS AND MEMBERS OF THE STCC puts a political outsider and as- tute businessman on the top of SERVICE one of the worlds most powerful economies and military forces. STCC CALENDAR It remains to be seen how this Wednesday 14th December 2016: will affect Thailand’s close re- Christmas Market @ Swiss lationship to the United States, School from 15:00 onwards one of Thailand’s major trading partners. Thursday 15th December 2016: STCC Stamm at Amari Boulevard PRESIDENT BRUNO G. ODERMATT What is interesting to note is Hotel, 18:00 with Fondue To “hope for the best and pre- how wrong all the pundits and Sunday 18th December 2016: pare for the worst” is a good political poll forecasters were Swiss Society Bangkok: motto in economics and our in predicting the outcome of Christmas Brunch for Families daily life; it comes to my mind this US election. As I take a and Kids at Moevenpick Hotel, when looking at the recent elec- keen interested in US politics, Sukhumvit 15 @ 11:00 tions we experienced this year. I usually follow the New York Thursday 12th January 2017: In April, the Netherlands, in a Times poll tracker throughout STCC Stamm at Amari Boulevard referendum, rejected a EU part- the election campaigns. A day Hotel, 18:00 nership deal to remove trade before the election, the NYT had Sunday 29th and Monday 30th barriers with the Ukraine. In forecasted an 80% chance of January 2017: June, British voters, in a ref- Hillary Clinton winning, versus Foire Suisse (Details follows) erendum, followed in leaving Donald Trump’s 20%. At 8am on the European Union, which election day, it then indicated Thursday 9th February 2017: STCC Stamm at Amari Boulevard sent shock waves across the a higher than 80% chance win Hotel, 18:00 world. In another big surprise, for Clinton, but then, believe it on Tuesday, November 8th, the or not, at 10am it came below More details for American people voted in Don- even a 40% chance and finally, above events please wait ald Trump as the 45th President at around 12pm, the forecast for the invitation-mail or get of the United States. It is an projected only a 5% chance for it from www.swissthai.com, outcome no one expected as it Clinton winning, while Trump click on “events”. 1 DECEMBER 2016 | SWISS-THAI CHAMBER OF COMMERCE | E-NEWSLETTER #77 THE PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE SUPPORTED BY was said to have a 95% chance Thailand’s competitiveness” and (see chart below). he provided guidance and assur- ance to the 700 business people I have personally never seen such and diplomats, that Thailand is a thing before; one has to seri- and will remain an attractive place ously question, how hadAdhesive the poll- for foreign &investment. Sealant TechnologiesTRINA ing experts continually gotten it INTERNATIONAL wrong the entire time. One can Last but not least, our Stamm certainly say, there are interest- father Daniel Rainle will again ing times ahead of us. be organizing the tradition- al Fondue Stamm evening on A truly great event last month Thursday, 15th December. I MS Hybrid Polymer was the classic business network hope that many of you will be evening at the Swiss Ambassador’s able to attend this always de- best performing Residence, jointly hosted by the lightful event. window, door Swiss Embassy and STCC. As always it was impeccably organised and, I wish you in advance a blessed and facade given Thailand’s current mourn- Holiday Season and extend to you SERVICE ing period, the turn-out was un- the best wishes and success for sealant. fortunately lower than expected. 2017. MEMBER DETAIL We extend to our Ambassador and SoutheastUPDATES Asia Link Co., Ltd. his team our gratitude for their With my best wishes Dowww.seal-ast.com you have changes among your great support of the Swiss-Thai delegatesT: 0or 2732changes 2092to your business community and already Bruno G. Odermatt e-mail, mobile, telephone, look forward to next year’s net- President or fax numbers? work event. On another positive note, the Prime Minister Prayud *** Please send all updates to Chan-o-cha addressed the foreign Contact the President: [email protected] business community at a luncheon Bruno G. Odermatt organized by the Joint Chamber of President STCC Commerce. His theme was “Open [email protected] MEMBERSHIP for business, the next chapter in Tel: +66 2 652 1911 FEES 2016 Please verify with your accounting that the membership fee is paid and kindly make sure that the copy of the payment is sent to [email protected] , we have received over 20 “blind payments” without identification. 2 DECEMBER 2016 | SWISS-THAI CHAMBER OF COMMERCE | E-NEWSLETTER #77 ECONOMY REPORT BY DEUTSCHE BANK NOT FOLLOWING THE FED • Economic outlook: was driven mainly by a low base. On a seasonal- Royal mourning and accession process will likely ly adjusted basis, tourism decline by 2.1%mom, depress economic activity in the near term, al- reflecting a crackdown on low- budget tourism. though public spending and exports would off- With data showing tours from China declining, set most of the drag. Inflation remains uncom- contribution from tourism is likely to be weak in fortably low, and despite a base-effect driven the coming months. revival in commodity price inflation, the metals and agriculture commodity sectors are likely to remain under pressure for the time being. • Main risks: The fledgling exports recovery could turn out to be ephemeral. Tourism sector softness could persist. Above all, political uncertainty remains a key risk to Thailand’s near and medium term outlook. Sub-trend Expectation of another quarter of around 3% real GDP growth has risen as exports grew by 3.5%yoy in September while public spending rose by 8% during the same period. Coupled with a widening current account surplus (USD2.9bn in September, +80%yoy), an increasing sense of comfort is being communicated by Thai policy makers. Going into Q4 with the royal mourning phase and the King’s acces- sion dominating the headlines, the relative strength of the economy must be a relief to the authorities. A closer look at the export narrative however does not offer much room for comfort. Despite bottoming a few months ago, agriculture exports remain in deep con- traction territory. Electronics exports are anemic, al- though nearly two years’ of negative growth has end- ed. Auto exports have been strong, but seem to have peaked already. Tourism is also showing signs of topping out. While the number of inbound tourists jumped in September (+18.3%yoy), the improvement 3 DECEMBER 2016 | SWISS-THAI CHAMBER OF COMMERCE | E-NEWSLETTER #77 ECONOMY REPORT BY DEUTSCHE BANK With the exports picture mixed and tourism ex- and commodity prices would of course help, but pected to soften, we are clearly not on the same as far as domestic drivers are concerned, the Thai page with the government with regards to the economy’s struggles won’t be over anytime soon, economic outlook. We think that public spending in our view. can hold up the economy only so far, and there is only limited upside to private consumption and A case in point is the commodity sector. The chart investment. Indeed, we expect growth to slow below offers room for optimism, showing that materially next year as public spending growth yoy changes in the prices of rice and rubber, two runs out steam. important agriculture commodities, have turned positive. On the margin, this means positive con- With this sober outlook, we continue to find real tribution to exports and farm income. interest rates too high in Thailand. While the Bank of Thailand has been on a prolonged pause, and real rates would indeed decline next year as inflation troughs, we believe that a more com- fortable real growth-real interest rate differen- tial is needed for private investment to return. We continue to see a number of sources of ten- sion in the economy even as the government tries to turn things around through public investment. From high household debt to depressed farm in- come, as well as weak private investment and lingering political uncertainty, there are a num- ber of difficulties that simply cannot be offset by public spending. A turnaround in global trade Premier International Co.,Ltd. We fabricate P.T.F.E. Coated Glass Fabric Material into different kind of belts for many Industries We produce textile dryer belts, packanging belts, processing belts, backing sheets, silicone sheets and tapes according to customer specification Contact us: Tel.0-2935-9023 to 5 Fax. 0-2539-1743, 0-2935-9023 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.premier-belting.com, www.premier-belts.com 4 DECEMBER 2016 | SWISS-THAI CHAMBER OF COMMERCE | E-NEWSLETTER #77 ECONOMY REPORT BY DEUTSCHE BANK But this is just a base effect driven phenomenon. The price levels of rice and rubber prices (shown in the following chart) are in fact rather low by historical standards, imposing considerable hardship on Thai farmers. The government’s attempt to boost farm in- come is welcome, but without a meaningful recovery in global prices, the prospect in this area will unfor- tunately remain dim. Taimur Baig, Singapore, +65 6423 8681 5 DECEMBER 2016 | SWISS-THAI CHAMBER OF COMMERCE | E-NEWSLETTER #77 SOUTHEAST ASIA - IPR SME HELPDESK GEOGRAPHICAL INDICATIONS IN THAILAND Thailand and the EU: Organisation (WTO) Agreement on graphical origin, and possessing a background for SMEs the Trade Related Aspects of Inter- qualities, reputation, or charac- national Property Rights (TRIPs).