PERSPECTIVE The end of nuclear energy? International perspectives after Fukushima NINA NETZER AND JOCHEN STEINHILBER (EDS.) July 2011 n The nuclear disaster in Fukushima turned into a long-term crisis shaking the very foun- dations of economies and institutional structures. This offers an opportunity to orga- nise energy supply in a more sustainable manner throughout the world. n While a shift in thinking can be seen in some countries, others unswervingly con- tinue along the planned path of an expansion of nuclear energy. However, given the economic and environmental misgivings as well as various security and safety risks of nuclear and fossil energy sources on the one hand as well as the benefits of green growth on the other hand, countries worldwide do not want to miss the opportunity to expand the use of renewable energy sources. n Against the background of an ongoing depletion of resources and volatile oil and gas prices, any future set up of energy policies throughout the world has to balance the goals of energy security, economic viability, ecological sustainability and social compatibility. At the same time, a restructuring in the energy sector has to be for- mulated in a democratic manner involving the national, state, and community levels as well as civil society and industry. NINA NETZER AND JOCHEN STEINHILBER (EDS.) | THE END OF NUCLEAR ENERGY? Contents Never waste a crisis … Green light for a sustainable energy supply . 3 Nina Netzer and Jochen Steinhilber The future of nuclear energy in the wake of Fukushima . 13 Lutz Mez Country Perspective: Brazil . 23 Célio Bermann Country Perspective: China . 27 Daniel Krahl and Su Junxia Country Perspective: France . 31 Sezin Topcu Country Perspective: Germany . 35 Regine Günther Country Perspective: India . 41 Suresh Prabhu Country Perspective: Indonesia . 45 Made Pande Udiyani and Bobby Rizaldi Country Perspective: Japan . 49 Iida Tetsunari Country Perspective: Korea . 53 Lee Pil Ryul Country Perspective: Portugal . 57 Carlos Laia Country Perspective: Russia . 63 Anton Khlopkov Country Perspective: Tunisia . 67 Mustapha El Haddad Country Perspective: Turkey . 71 Umit Sahin Country Perspective: United States . 75 Sebastian Ehreiser 1 NINA NETZER AND JOCHEN STEINHILBER (EDS.) | THE END OF NUCLEAR ENERGY? Never waste a crisis … Green light for a sustainable energy supply Nina Netzer and Jochen Steinhilber * The nuclear meltdown in Fukushima has once again global developments and impact . If one adopts Susan underscored that energy policy is more than just the Strange‘s definition of structural power, according to production, transformation, distribution and provision which the crucial structures are production, security, of energy . Energy policy can often lead to major en- finance and knowledge, then each of these funda- croachments upon the environment as well as the lives mental power structures, which only tend to change and work of human beings . One-time events such as very slowly, has been shaken by a fundamental cri- the recent earthquake in Japan and the meltdowns in sis in the last ten years . The ambivalences which have several nuclear reactor blocks in its wake have the po- come about as a result have further fuelled this uncer- tential to turn into long-term crises shaking the very tainty, extending its grip to Western societies as well . foundations of economies and institutional structures . But crises also hold out opportunities . The crisis of Fu- But crises are not only marked by growing uncertain- kushima, for instance, offers an opportunity to organise ty – they can also often offer latitude to reshape policy energy supply in a more sustainable manner throughout in the struggle between competing interpretations of the world . In weighing out the alternatives to nuclear events and through the crystallisation of new visions of energy, we need to learn from previous crises and take the future . The precondition for this, however, is that we into account risks to human health and safety posed by learn from crises and formulate alternatives . Only when future energy sources as well as their costs and impact collective alternatives to that which already exist become on the environment 1. visible do times of crises also become »times of realisa- tion« (Oskar Negt) . Otherwise potential anxiety (terror, an uncertain energy supply) will predominate and famil- 1. The morning after Fukushima – iar strategies will be preserved and carried on – even Business as usual or learning from the crisis? though they have failed . If the failure of old ways is too obvious to deny, two tried-and-proven justifications then Within the space of only two decades, watershed come into play: in view of the complexity or the »general changes have fundamentally changed global constel- drama of politics«, stakeholders – not without interest lations and structures and have altered the constraints of their own – decry the bankruptcy of policy, claiming and factors conditioning political alternatives and their that the possibility of an effective, change-inducing, and prospects for success: the »balance of terror«, the Cold efficient collective action has come to an end . This is War’s repressive pattern with its clear-cut rules and reinforced by the »creed of no alternatives« . Margaret routines has dissolved in the 1990s in a world in which Thatcher was fond of asserting that »there is no alterna- the classic patterns and mechanisms of the old political tive« – thereby negating options, stripping criticism of le- order no longer functioned . »Uncertain«, »complex« gitimacy and suffocating political dialogue in its infancy . and »in constant change« are the attributes most fre- This reactionary mantra served its purpose for two de- quently used to describe world politics today . The ter- cades, until it ultimately and rightfully became one of rorist attacks of September 11, 2001, which not only the main targets of the World Social Forum movement . changed the USA but global security-policy structures All the more so because the supposed lack of alterna- as well, the economic and financial crisis of 2008, which tives always went hand in hand with the dismantling of shook the global economy to the core and finally the social attainments, the auctioning off of public goods nuclear disaster of Fukushima have further heightened and the promotion of parochial economic interests . this complexity, once again underscoring the inter- relationship between domestic societal processes and A look at the period following the attacks on the World Trade Center and the financial and economic crisis shows * The authors work for the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung in Berlin, Germany. that it cannot be taken for granted that people will learn Jochen Steinhilber is Head of the Department for Global Policy and Develop- ment, Nina Netzer is in charge of International Energy and Climate Policy. from crises – even in the wake of watershed changes, 3 NINA NETZER AND JOCHEN STEINHILBER (EDS.) | THE END OF NUCLEAR ENERGY? some countries reacted to the legitimate desire of their of nuclear energy thus does not merely involve the ques- societies for security by violently lashing out against per- tion of future energy supply – it also touches upon other ceived external threats with military means while dras- fundamental socio-political questions involving the rela- tically tightening internal security . 9/11 thus reinforced tionship between economy and state, democratic devel- strategies which were already being practiced, weak- opment, assessment of technology and management of ened alternative political strategies and once again eleva- risk as well as our understanding of progress . ted warfare to a permanent state of affairs in which »the West« increasingly lost sight of its most important weap- ons – its civil, economic and social attractiveness . The »The bright side of the atom …« dominant form of mature capitalism (financial) appears to have weathered this major crisis relatively unscathed As far back as at the beginning of the civil career of nu- in spite of obvious dysfunctions and calamitous social clear power, an attempt was made to play down the and economic effects . During the crisis itself hope for a dangers of nuclear energy to a minimum in the public fundamental reform of the international economic and debate and indeed to paint a rosy picture of the future financial markets flickered up for an instant, but after a through the use of nuclear energy . This was no simple brief moment of panic the old system was restored rela- endeavour . After all, nuclear energy had been synony- tively smoothly . The flagrant failure of markets, the exis- mous with death and destruction especially since the ting system‘s »near-death-experience« (Stiglitz) did not atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Naga- suffice to bring about any fundamental change in course, saki, but also as a result of large-scale testing of nuclear either, as there was neither any alternative capable of ge- weapons . In his »Atoms for Peace« speech before the nerating enough support in the political arena, nor were United Nations General Assembly in 1953, US president there any social forces capable of imposing one . Eisenhower issued the order of the day: military use of nuclear energy was to be contained of all things through Similar to Chernobyl and other nuclear accidents of the the massive expansion of civil and hence »peaceful« past which have been forgotten, the disaster of Fuku- use of nuclear energy, in this manner preventing pro- shima is an ongoing disaster whose further develop- liferation of equipment, technology and scientific know- ment and impact are unpredictable . Nevertheless there how . Even today compensation is still the core element is much to suggest that, in contrast to other crises of of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty . Its advocates the decade, it will lead to a watershed change which never doubted that atomic energy would be used for does indeed trigger societal learning processes . Nuclear the good of humanity and progress . In almost euphoric energy does not have any future in democratic societies .