REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA Country fiche on pension projections Sofia, November 2017 Contents 1 Overview of the pension system ........................................................................... 3 1.1 Description ................................................................................................................................ 3 1.1.1 The public system of mandatory pension insurance of the pay-as-you-go type (I pillar) ................................................................................................................................ 3 1.1.2 Supplementary mandatory pension schemes (II pillar) ............................................ 5 1.1.3 Supplementary voluntary pension schemes (III pillar) ............................................. 5 1.2 Recent pension reforms ........................................................................................................... 5 2 Overview of the demographic and labour force projections ................................ 8 2.1 Demographic development ..................................................................................................... 8 2.2 Labour forces ............................................................................................................................ 9 3 Pension projection results ................................................................................... 12 3.1 Extent of the coverage of the pension schemes in the projections ................................ 12 3.2 Overview of projection results.............................................................................................. 13 3.3 Description of the effect from the possibility to opt out the 2nd pillar .......................... 15 3.4 Description of the main driving forces behind the projection results and their implications for the main items of the pension questionnaire ......................................... 15 3.5 Financing of the pension system .......................................................................................... 20 3.6 Sensitivity analysis ................................................................................................................... 22 3.7 Description of the changes in comparison with the 2009 and 2012 projections .......... 23 4 Description of the pension projection model and its base data ........................ 25 4.1 Institutional context................................................................................................................ 25 4.2 Assumptions and methodologies applied ............................................................................ 25 4.3 Data used to run the model ................................................................................................... 25 4.4 Reforms incorporated in the model ..................................................................................... 26 4.5 General description of the model ......................................................................................... 26 4.6 Additional features of the projection model ....................................................................... 31 References ................................................................................................................. 32 Methodological annex ............................................................................................... 33 1 Overview of the pension system 1.1 Description The pension system in Bulgaria has undergone substantial structural reforms since the late 1990s. The traditional pay-as-you-go system was transformed into a three-pillar system through the introduction of compulsory and voluntary fully funded pillars. Other aspects of the pension reform include the separation of the State social insurance budget from the State budget, the establishment of specialized funds, and the introduction of the tripartite management of the State social insurance system. The current Bulgarian pension system came into force with the Mandatory Social Insurance Code on 1 January 2000 (renamed the Social Insurance Code [SIC] in 2003). The main objectives of the reform were to stabilize the existing public insurance system (first pillar), and to allow the Bulgarian population to receive higher incomes after retirement through participation in second and third pillars of the pension system. 1.1.1 The public system of mandatory pension insurance of the pay-as-you-go type (I pillar) The first pillar is a pay-as-you-go public pension insurance system. Promoting the principle of mandatory participation and universality, the first pillar covers all economically active persons. It is financed through contributions from employers and employees, as well as through transfers from the State budget for covering all non-contributory pension benefits and some non-contributory periods, which are regarded as insurance periods. In the period 2009-2015 the State was participating as a “third insurer” and was paying contributions equal to 12 percent of the total insurance income of all insured persons. As of 2016 the State contribution was abolished. In addition, the State has the obligation to cover any remaining financial gaps and deficits of the public pension system. The first pillar is administrated by the National Social Security Institute (NSSI), which is responsible for the entitlement and payment of pensions and other social insurance benefits in the event of one’s temporary incapacity to work, maternity and unemployment. The pension policy is formulated and implemented by the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy. Since 2000 the old-age pension is calculated according to the following formula: Old-Age Pension = AR x IP x IC x AMII, where AR: Accrual rate, IP: Insurance period, IC: Individual coefficient, and AMII: National average monthly insurable income in the last 12 months preceding retirement. The main components of the pension formula are explained as follows: ─ The accrual rate until the end of 2016 was 1.1 percent per insurance year. For periods of postponed retirement the accrual rate is 4 percent. Page 3 of 34 ─ The insurance period consists of the contributory and non-contributory periods for which contributions have been paid by the State. ─ The individual coefficient is the ratio of an individual’s average insurable income to the national average insurable income. When calculating the individual coefficient, the individual’s average is calculated from (i) their best three consecutive years out of the last 15 years of service before 1 January 1997 and (ii) the whole period after 31 December 1996. As from January 2019 the choice of the 3 best years will be abolished and the reference period for calculation of the individual coefficient will include only the service after 1996. ─ The national average monthly insurable income for the 12 months preceding retirement is calculated and reported by the National Social Security Institute on a monthly basis. Minimum income support for the elderly is provided through the minimum old-age pension and the social pension for old age. The minimum old-age pension amount is set every year by the Public Social Insurance Budget Law. Members of elderly households having income lower than the minimum income guarantee are entitled to the social pension for old age. This pension is means-tested and is financed by the State budget. The maximum pension is fixed at 35 percent of the maximum insurable income (35% of 2600 BGN). Disability pensions are payable to insured persons who have lost more than 50 percent of their ability to work and have completed a minimum five-year insurance period. For insured persons under 30 years of age, the required insurance period is shortened in the following manner: ─ For persons under 20 years of age, persons born blind or persons who became blind before starting to work, disability pensions are available regardless of the duration of their insurance period. ─ For persons between 20 and 24 years of age, one year of insurance is required. ─ For persons between 25 and 29 years of age, three years of insurance are required. Persons with more than 50 percent loss in their ability to work due to work accident or occupational disease qualify for disability pension regardless of the duration of their insurance period. Survivors’ pensions are payable to children up to age 18 (age 26 if a student, no limit if disabled), to surviving spouse within 5 years prior to statutory retirement age (earlier if disabled) and to parents older than statutory retirement age who do not receive a pension in their own right. Parents of insured persons who died during military service are eligible regardless of age. The annual pension indexation is carried out in the middle of the year according to a formula that comprises 50% of the increase in the consumer price index (CPI) and 50% of the insurance income growth during the previous calendar year. Page 4 of 34 Periods in which persons receive social insurance benefits for temporary incapacity, maternity and unemployment are credited as fully-insured periods. Other non-contributory periods, such as military service and child-rearing (for children under two years of age) are also regarded as insurance periods. Upon retirement, the contributions due for these periods are transferred from the State budget to the Public Social Security Budget. 1.1.2 Supplementary mandatory pension schemes (II pillar) The second pillar is a supplementary mandatory pension insurance system. It is based on individual retirement savings