Essays on economic growth diagnostic and demographics in Sub-Saharan Africa Gbedia Gomez Agou To cite this version: Gbedia Gomez Agou. Essays on economic growth diagnostic and demographics in Sub-Saharan Africa. Economics and Finance. Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I, 2020. English. NNT : 2020PA01E024. tel-03022180 HAL Id: tel-03022180 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-03022180 Submitted on 24 Nov 2020 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Ecole Doctorale d’Économie THESE Présentée par Gbedia Gomez Agou Défendue le 01 octobre 2020 Pour l’obtention le titre de Docteur par l’Université de Paris I Sorbonne-Panthéon Discipline : Sciences Economiques ESSAIS SUR LA CROISSANCE ECONOMIQUE ET LA DEMOGRAPHIE EN AFRIQUE SUB-SAHARIENNE Directeur de thèse : Professeur Emérite Jean-Claude Berthelemy Rapporteurs Dr. Patrick Plane, Directeur de la recherche, CNRS, CERDI, Université de Auvergne Dr. Dramane Coulibaly, Maître de Conférence, Université de Paris-Nanterre Présidente du jury : Dr. Maurel, Directrice du Centre d’économie de la Sorbonne Jury Members Dr. Berthelemy, Professeur Emérite Dr. Patrick Plane, Directeur de la recherche, CNRS, CERDI, Université de Auvergne Dr. Dramane Coulibaly, Maître de Conférence, Université de Paris-Nanterre Dr. Joaquim Oliveira, Directeur adjoint, OCDE 2 “Big and sudden changes come from small and consistent actions.” Gomez Agou 3 4 Acknowledgments A PHD thesis is like any other journey except that this one is about exploring the unchartered world of knowledge. Each journey has crew members playing various roles: some spark the idea of having the journey, some support during the journey, some guide through the journey and the last lead the journey. This thesis has been no different. And, these crew members deserve to be acknowledged. I would like to start with my parents, Mr. and Mrs. Agou. They have been at the beginning of my education starting in primary school. With their limited means, my father—a primary school teacher—and my mother—a housewife—have never ceased to push me to cross unchartered lands of knowledge that they have never visited. My father is the one who, unsatisfied with my graduation from Harvard, planted in my mind the idea of a PHD in economics. I have now put my foot in the world of PHDs because of them. I say thank you to them! Thanks to my special supporters: Edith, Ivana, and David. Edith, my wife has been an incredible support in times of excitement at the beginning of the journey but more importantly in times of doubt during the journey. She has been there, repeating daily that I could become a Doctor of Philosophy in economics until I believed it and made it happened. To be fair, Edith has been a coach for me, bringing the best out of me, since Cambridge on Harvard campus! To Ivana and David, I am grateful to them that they have ignored all my calls to be left alone when I was struggling with the thesis. Without their persistence, I could have missed the joy of being a father during these three years of thesis. I also would like to say thanks to my two brothers (Franck and Ange) for their continued encouragement. 5 I would like to say a special thanks to a friend who has been an incredible help during this Journey: Dr. Desire Kanga. Dr. Kanga has convinced me that I could do a PHD in three years if I was committed. He had one proof: He had just done it before! Further, he decided to join me in the journey. He has not only co-authored two chapters with me but has been an incredible source of knowledge and wisdom when I needed technical guidance. To be fair, I was not surprised by his support; Desire has been a friend for 15 years! Big things are usually achieved, standing on the shoulders of giants: Professor Jean-Claude Berthelemy is on them. I would have never joined the community of PHD holders without him. Professor Berthelemy has shown flexibility by supervising a PHD thesis written from Washington. This thesis journey was supposed to last six years, it only lasted three years, thanks to his responsiveness even after being on retirement. During that support effort, he has brought to the Journey Dr. Maurel, an incredible mind! Professor Berthelemy has relentless pushed my intellectual limits. I hope to honor his empowerment by contributing to the world of economics. I cannot forget the metro drivers of Washington DC and the airline pilots of my mission flights. I wrote more than 75 percent of this thesis in trains and airplanes. Every business day in DC, I wrote the thesis in the train during the 30-minute commute on my way in and out from work. And, when I was on mission, I wrote the thesis in the air during my long-hour flights. Finally, I would like to say thank you my Lord, Jesus Christ. He has kept me alive, prevented fateful events, and given me the courage to push myself. Throughout this journey, he has been at the beginning and the very end. He has put these wonderful people mentioned above in my journey. My God deserves the praise and the glory! He has made me Dr. Agou! 6 Table of content List of figures ................................................................................................................... 8 List of tables................................................................................................................... 10 Abbreviations................................................................................................................. 12 General introduction ..................................................................................................... 16 I- HRV constraints diagnostic to high growth in cote d’ivoire ................................ 30 I.1 Introduction........................................................................................................ 30 I.2 Recent African growth: A literature review........................................................ 32 I.3 Cote d’Ivoire: Growth History ............................................................................ 37 I.4 Data and Methodology for HRV Diagnostic ..................................................... 52 I.5 A story of corruption, finance, and fear to diversify ......................................... 56 I.6 Conclusion .......................................................................................................... 76 I.7 Annex .................................................................................................................. 78 II- Demographics and Economic Growth in Sub Saharan Africa .............................. 83 II.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 83 II.2 Key Facts of Demography in Sub-Saharan Africa ......................................... 85 II.3 Demographic impacts on Growth: a literature Review ................................ 96 II.4 Revisiting Demography Impact on Economic Growth in SSA ................... 107 II.5 Conclusion ................................................................................................... 134 II.6 Annex ........................................................................................................... 136 III- Drivers of fertility and life expectancy in Sub Saharan Africa ......................... 152 III-1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 152 III.2 Trends of fertility and life expectancy in SSA .............................................. 155 III.3 Literature on Fertility, mortality and life expectancy in SSA ....................... 167 III.4 Empirical Analysis ......................................................................................... 180 III.5 Conclusion .................................................................................................... 196 III.6 Annex ............................................................................................................ 198 General conclusion ...................................................................................................... 204 Bibliography................................................................................................................. 226 7 8 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 0-1:GDP Growth episodes in the SSA region .................................................... 18 Figure 0-2: A growth diagnostic decision tree ............................................................. 22 Figure I-1. Côte d’Ivoire : social indicators performance ............................................. 43 Figure I-2. Côte d’Ivoire: per capita GDP growth ......................................................... 47 Figure I-3. GDP per capita growth in post conflict period ........................................... 47 Figure I-4. Côte d’Ivoire: Growth accountability........................................................... 48 Figure I-5. Côte d'Ivoire: Public Investment (percent of GDP) ..................................... 50 Figure I-6: Côte d'Ivoire. exports and GDP per capita.................................................