AN ABSTRACT OF THE THESIS OF Wendy L. Peterman for the degree of Masters of Science in Soil Science presented on June 10, 2010. Title: Predictive Mapping of Landtype Association Maps in Three Oregon National Forests Abstract approved: ___________________________ Jay S. Noller Abstract: This study explores the use of predictive mapping techniques in developing Landtype Association (LTA) maps for use in natural resource management. These maps are produced for the USDA Forest Service on a regional basis at a 1:100,000 scale. The goal of this study is to develop and test a method of producing LTA maps using Decision Tree Analysis (DTA) with existing data sets. The method is intended to be efficient, objective, consistent and accessible to people from many backgrounds and levels of experience. This study maps changes in ecosystem function across the landscape, considers factors affecting DTA accuracy, and compares this method to conventional methods. Three study areas are included in this thesis project: SE Fremont NF, Deschutes NF and Ochoco NF. Results indicate that subjective interpretation is reduced through machine-learning with a priori data sets. ©Copyright by Wendy L. Peterman June 10, 2010 All Rights Reserved Predictive Mapping of Landtype Association Maps in Three Oregon National Forests by Wendy L. Peterman A THESIS submitted to Oregon State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science Presented June 10, 2010 Commencement June 2011 Master of Science thesis of Wendy L. Peterman presented on June 10, 2010 Approved: ______________________________________________________________________ Major Professor, representing Soil Science ______________________________________________________________________ Head of the Department of Crop and Soil Science ______________________________________________________________________ Dean of the Graduate School I understand that my thesis will become part of the permanent collection of Oregon State University libraries. My signature below authorizes release of my thesis to any reader upon request. ______________________________________________________________________ Wendy L. Peterman, Author ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ! I would like to thank Jay Noller for the plethora of wonderful research and educational opportunities he has given me, and for his enthusiasm and support in writing and editing this thesis. Many thanks to Sarah Hash, without whose guidance and support, graduate school would have been much less tolerable. I thank Jay Noller, Julie Pett-Ridge and Duane Lammers for being on my graduate committee and overseeing my program of study. I also thank Duane Lammers for generously sharing his SRI handbooks and Forest Service connections as well his positive attitude and advice. From the USDA Forest Service, I thank Karen Bennett for her enthusiasm and curiosity about this project, Peter Sussman for his open and efficient sharing of data sets, Jim David for his contribution of detailed Ochoco data sets, and Todd Reinwald, Terry Craig and the dedicated scientists who attended the August field trip to the Fremont for their feedback. I thank my husband and daughter for their encouragement, support, flexibility and patience during a time of chaotic schedules and intense focus. Thanks also to Priscilla Woolverton for her help in the field. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1.0 Introduction................................................................................................................1 ! 1.1 Overview........................................................................................................2 ! 1.2 The Ecoregion Framework............................................................................4 ! 1.3 Study Problem...............................................................................................6 ! 1.4 Study Areas....................................................................................................8 2.0 Methods.....................................................................................................................9 3.0 Results......................................................................................................................17 ! 3.1 Fremont NF/Warner Mountains...................................................................17 ! 3.2 Deschutes NF...............................................................................................24 !!3.2.1 Error Analysis...............................................................................30 !!3.2.2 Ground-truthing............................................................................32 ! 3.3 Ochoco National Forest...............................................................................33 !!3.3.1 Spatial Analysis of Ochoco NF maps...........................................37 4.0 Discussion................................................................................................................40 5.0 Conclusions..............................................................................................................43 6.0 References................................................................................................................44 LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1 Hierarchy of Ecological Units......................................................................................5 2 Data Sets Used in DTA................................................................................................10 2a Flow Chart of LTA Prediction Process......................................................................11 3.2.1 Kappa & Overall Error for Deschutes Predictions................................................31 3.2.1a Deschutes Error Analysis....................................................................................32 3.3.1 Comparison between the Ochoco LTA and Ecoregion V Maps............................39 LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1.1 Physiographic Regions/Geologic Provinces of Oregon.............................................2 1.4 Level IV Ecoregions of the Deschutes, Ochoco and Fremont/Warner NF’s..............9 2 Ground-Truth points in the Deschutes NF...................................................................13 3.1a Geology of Warner Mountain Portion of Fremont NF............................................18 3.1b Faults of Warner Mountain Portion of Fremont NF................................................20 3.1c Landform Groups of Warner Mountain Portion of Fremont NF.............................18 3.1d Vegetation of Warner Mountain Portion of Fremont NF.........................................21 3.2a Elevation Distributions for Ecoregion 4.................................................................25 3.2b Elevation Distributions for Ecoregion 9.................................................................25 3.2c Landform Groups of the Deschutes NF..................................................................26 3.2d Geology of the Deschutes NF.................................................................................27 3.2e Vegetation of the Deschutes NF..............................................................................28 3.3a Landform Groups of the Ochoco NF.......................................................................34 3.3b Geology of the Ochoco NF.....................................................................................35 3.2d Vegetation of the Ochoco NF..................................................................................35 LIST OF PLATES Plate Page Plate 1 LTA’s of the Warner Mountains portion of the Fremont NF.......................52 Plate 2 LTA’s of the Deschutes NF..........................................................................56 Plate 3 LTA’s of the Ochoco NF..............................................................................59 Plate 4 USFS Ecoregion V map of the Ochoco NF.................................................62 LIST OF APPENDICES APPENDIX.....................................................................................................................51 Appendix A_1 Warner LTA Soils....................................................................................53 Appendix A_2 Warner LTA Landform Groups...............................................................54 Appendix A_3 Warner LTA Landscape Features............................................................55 Appendix A_ 4 Deschutes NF LTA Soils........................................................................57 Appendix A_5 Deschutes NF LTA Landform Groups....................................................57 Appendix A_6 Deschutes NF LTA Landscape Features.................................................58 Appendix A_7 Ochoco NF LTA Landform Groups.......................................................60 Appendix A_8 Ochoco NF LTA Landscape Features.....................................................61 Appendix A_8.5 Ochoco NF Ecoregions V Descriptions..............................................63 Appendix A_9a-d Deschutes NF Prediction Error Matrices..........................................65 Appendix A_10a,b Ochoco Prediction Error Matrices...................................................75 1.0 Introduction ! Predictive mapping uses a statistical model to quantify landscape relationships from existing maps. With this approach, legacy data and map layers, representing environmental covariates are compared using Decision-Tree Analysis (DTA), resulting in a set of rules applicable to an unmapped