HUNTLEE NEW TOWN Stage 1 Preferred Project Report (PPR) Traffic Modelling, Volume 1 July 2012 Hyder Consulting Pty Ltd ABN 76 104 485 289 Level 5, 141 Walker Street Locked Bag 6503 North Sydney NSW 2060 Australia Tel: +61 2 8907 9000 Fax: +61 2 8907 9001 www.hyderconsulting.com HUNTLEE PTY LTD HUNTLEE NEW TOWN Stage 1 Preferred Project Report, Traffic Modelling Volume 1 Mukit R, Jacky L., Kung Author N. Checker Mukit Rahman Approver Mukit Rahman Report No AA004866_TM_02 Date July 2012 This report has been prepared for Huntlee Pty Ltd in accordance with the terms and conditions of appointment for Huntlee New Town dated March 2012. Hyder Consulting Pty Ltd (ABN 76 104 485 289) cannot accept any responsibility for any use of or reliance on the contents of this report by any third party. Huntlee New Town—Stage 1 Preferred Project Report, Traffic Modelling Volume 1 Hyder Consulting Pty Ltd-ABN 76 104 485 289 f:\aa004866\reporting\aa004688_huntlee traffic modelling main report_revn.docx REVISIONS Revisions Date Description Prepared by Approved by A-L May and June Internal reviews MR, KN, JL 2012 M 9 July 2012 DRAFT for Client’s review and comments MR, KN, JL MR N 12 July 2012 Final Report MR, KN, JL MR Huntlee New Town—Stage 1 Preferred Project Report, Traffic Modelling Volume 1 Hyder Consulting Pty Ltd-ABN 76 104 485 289 Page i f:\aa004866\reporting\aa004688_huntlee traffic modelling main report_revn.docx CONTENTS Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................. 1 Report Structure ...................................................................................................................................... 6 Volume 1 – Executive Summary and Report ................................................................................................ 6 Volume 2 - Appendices ................................................................................................................................. 6 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 7 1.1 Background ....................................................................................................................................... 7 1.2 Study Objectives ................................................................................................................................ 8 1.3 Purpose of this Report ....................................................................................................................... 8 2 Approach to Traffic Modelling Investigation .................................................................................. 9 3 Regional and Local Transport Context ........................................................................................ 10 3.1 Study Area Road Network ............................................................................................................... 10 3.3 Road Hierarchy ................................................................................................................................ 12 3.4 Key Transport Indicators.................................................................................................................. 14 3.4.1 Historical Traffic Growth ................................................................................................. 14 3.4.2 Commuter Mode Share, Branxton Area .......................................................................... 15 3.5 Crash Data ...................................................................................................................................... 15 4 Existing Traffic Condition ............................................................................................................. 18 4.1 New Traffic Survey .......................................................................................................................... 18 4.2 Traffic Results .................................................................................................................................. 20 4.2.1 Daily Traffic Volumes ...................................................................................................... 20 4.2.2 Peak Hour Traffic Volumes ............................................................................................. 22 4.2.3 Existing Network Capacity and Level Of Service (LoS) .................................................. 24 5 Traffic Models .............................................................................................................................. 26 5.1 Overview.......................................................................................................................................... 26 5.2 TransCAD Model Calibration/Validation .......................................................................................... 27 5.3 Paramics Model Calibration/Validation ............................................................................................ 27 6 Key Modelling Assumptions ........................................................................................................ 29 6.1 Future Development Potential of Huntlee ........................................................................................ 29 6.2 Traffic Generation ............................................................................................................................ 33 6.2.1 Residential Development ................................................................................................ 33 6.2.2 Employment Development .............................................................................................. 34 6.3 Self-Containment Trips .................................................................................................................... 35 6.4 Implied Mode Share ........................................................................................................................ 36 6.5 Trip Generation from Stage 1 and Full Development ...................................................................... 37 6.6 Future Network Change................................................................................................................... 41 Huntlee New Town—Stage 1 Preferred Project Report, Traffic Modelling Volume 1 Hyder Consulting Pty Ltd-ABN 76 104 485 289 Page i f:\aa004866\reporting\aa004688_huntlee traffic modelling main report_revn.docx 6.7 Trip Distribution ............................................................................................................................... 41 6.8 Future Growth .................................................................................................................................. 41 6.8.1 Impact from Hunter Expressway (HEX) .......................................................................... 42 6.8.2 Regional Background Traffic Growth on Wine Country Drive ......................................... 44 6.9 Development Staging ...................................................................................................................... 44 6.10 Summary of Modelling Assumptions ............................................................................................... 49 7 Impact Assessment ..................................................................................................................... 52 7.1 Access Strategy ............................................................................................................................... 52 7.1.1 Stage 1 ........................................................................................................................... 52 7.1.2 Full Development ............................................................................................................ 54 7.2 Scenarios Assessment .................................................................................................................... 55 7.3 Staging of Capacity Improvements .................................................................................................. 56 7.3.1 Principles ........................................................................................................................ 56 7.3.2 Approach ........................................................................................................................ 56 7.4 Widening of Road Sections ............................................................................................................. 57 7.4.1 Stage 1 ........................................................................................................................... 57 7.4.2 Full Development ............................................................................................................ 58 7.5 Intersections Upgrade ..................................................................................................................... 59 7.5.1 Stage 1 ........................................................................................................................... 59 7.5.2 Full Development ............................................................................................................ 61 7.6 Internal Sub division Road Network ................................................................................................. 66 7.7 Integrating Land Use and Transport Policy Package ......................................................................