TTI: 0-6763 Accounting for Electric Vehicles in Air Quality Conformity‒Final Report Technical Report 0-6763-1 Cooperative Research Program TEXAS A&M TRANSPORTATION INSTITUTE COLLEGE STATION, TEXAS in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration and the Texas Department of Transportation http://tti.tamu.edu/documents/0-6763-1.pdf Technical Report Documentation Page 1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient's Catalog No. FHWA/TX-15/0-6763-1 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date ACCOUNTING FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN AIR QUALITY December 2014 CONFORMITY—FINAL REPORT 6. Performing Organization Code 7. Author(s) 8. Performing Organization Report No. Reza Farzaneh, Yuche Chen, Jeremy Johnson, Josias Zietsman, Report 0-6763-1 Chaoyi Gu, Tara Ramani, L.D. White, Megan Kenney, and Yue Zhang 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS) Texas A&M Transportation Institute College Station, Texas 77843-3135 11. Contract or Grant No. Project 0-6763 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered Texas Department of Transportation Technical Report: Research and Technology Implementation Office September 2012–August 2014 th 125 E. 11 Street 14. Sponsoring Agency Code Austin, Texas 78701-2483 15. Supplementary Notes Project performed in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation. Project Title: Accounting for Electric Vehicles in Air Quality Conformity URL: http://tti.tamu.edu/documents/0-6763-1.pdf 16. Abstract Electric vehicles (EVs) obtain at least a part of the energy required for their propulsion from electricity. The market for EVs, including hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles continues to grow, as many new and affordable models have become available in recent years. The proliferation of EVs in the vehicle fleet has implications for energy use and emissions. The mobile source (vehicle exhaust) emissions component is of particular relevance to transportation agencies, especially those in nonattainment and attainment maintenance areas that need to meet transportation conformity requirements. This report presents a framework to incorporate EVs into mobile source emissions estimations. The framework uses the United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES) model. It integrates EV driving characteristics, emissions rates, and market penetration information into a MOVES- based emissions inventory analysis. Vehicle activity data collection and drive schedule development, along with in-use emissions measurements, were conducted for a sample of EVs in Texas. Additionally, market penetration scenarios were developed using a consumer choice model. The collected data and market penetration scenarios were then used in the framework to conduct a pilot application for a large county in Texas. The pilot application demonstrated successful use of the framework and showed that including EVs in emissions analyses can potentially have an impact on the overall analysis results specifically for future years. 17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement Electric Vehicles, Mobile Source Emissions, No restrictions. This document is available to the MOVES Model, Portable Emissions Measurement public through NTIS: Systems, Drive Schedules, Electric Vehicle Market National Technical Information Service Penetration, Conformity, Nonattainment, In-Use Alexandria, Virginia 22312 Emissions http://www.ntis.gov 19. Security Classif.(of this report) 20. Security Classif.(of this page) 21. No. of Pages 22. Price Unclassified Unclassified 132 Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72) Reproduction of completed page authorized ACCOUNTING FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN AIR QUALITY CONFORMITY—FINAL REPORT by Reza Farzaneh, Ph.D., P.E. Chaoyi Gu Program Manager Assistant Transportation Researcher Associate Research Engineer Texas A&M Transportation Institute Texas A&M Transportation Institute Tara Ramani, P.E. Yuche Chen, Ph.D. Assistant Research Engineer Assistant Research Scientist Texas A&M Transportation Institute Texas A&M Transportation Institute L.D. White Jeremy Johnson Associate Research Specialist Research Specialist Texas A&M Transportation Institute Texas A&M Transportation Institute Megan Kenney Josias Zietsman, Ph.D., P.E. Assistant Transportation Researcher Division Head and Research Engineer Texas A&M Transportation Institute Texas A&M Transportation Institute and Yue Zhang Graduate Research Assistant Texas A&M Transportation Institute Report 0-6763-1 Project 0-6763 Project Title: Accounting for Electric Vehicles in Air Quality Conformity Performed in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation December 2014 TEXAS A&M TRANSPORTATION INSTITUTE College Station, Texas 77843-3135 DISCLAIMER This research was performed in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT). The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors, who are responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the data presented herein. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official view or policies of TxDOT. This report does not constitute a standard, specification, or regulation. The United States Government and the State of Texas do not endorse products or manufacturers. Trade or manufacturers’ names appear herein solely because they are considered essential to the objective of this report. v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This project was conducted in cooperation with TxDOT. The authors thank the Project Monitoring Committee members, Bill Knowles, Ron Hagquist, Laura Norton, and Mollie Klenzendorf, as well as TxDOT Research and Technology Implementation Division staff, including Kevin Pete and Wade Odell. The authors acknowledge Martin Boardman, L.D. White, and Dennis Perkinson of the Texas A&M Transportation Institute for their contributions to this study, and also gratefully acknowledge the input of Zhenhong Lin and Changzheng Liu of Oak Ridge National Laboratory. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Page List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... ix List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. x List of Abbreviations ................................................................................................................... xi Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... xiii Chapter 1: Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1 Background ................................................................................................................................. 1 Research Goals and Approach .................................................................................................... 2 Report Outline ............................................................................................................................. 3 Chapter 2: Background and State of the Practice ..................................................................... 5 Electric Vehicles in the United States ......................................................................................... 5 Factors Influencing EV Adoption ............................................................................................... 7 Electric Vehicles’ Market Penetration ........................................................................................ 9 Market Penetration Forecasting Methods ............................................................................. 10 Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies Model .................................... 19 Emissions Impacts of Electric Vehicles .................................................................................... 20 EVs’ Implication for Air Quality and Conformity ................................................................... 27 EVs in Nonattainment Areas ................................................................................................ 27 EV Activity Data for Emissions Modeling ........................................................................... 29 Concluding Remarks ................................................................................................................. 30 Chapter 3: Data Collection and Establishment of EV Emissions Rates ................................ 31 Overview of Approach .............................................................................................................. 31 Development of EV Drive Schedules ....................................................................................... 32 Data Collection Protocol ....................................................................................................... 33 Drive Schedule Data Collection............................................................................................ 36 Development of Drive Schedules ......................................................................................... 37 In-Use Testing of Electric Vehicles .......................................................................................... 44 Data Collection Protocol ....................................................................................................... 44 Test Vehicles ........................................................................................................................