CLIMATE CHANGE AND GEOPOLITICS: A CONFLICT IN THE ARCTIC LISA COVINO i SAINT PAUL UNIVERSITY Climate change and Geopolitics: A Conflict in the Arctic Written by LISA COVINO Under the supervision of Dr. Heather Eaton Thesis presented at the faculty of superior studies of Saint Paul University In the Graduate Program of Conflict Studies For the Master’s Degree of Arts Conflict Studies Faculty of Human Sciences May 2018 © Lisa Covino, Ottawa, Canada, 2018 Abstract This thesis is focused on the redefinition of the Canadian domestic and foreign Arctic policies based on a model of sustainability and sustainable development customized for the Arctic region. More specifically, since the beginning of the nineteenth century, the Arctic has become a pivotal region in terms of energy resources and economic opportunities due to the influence of the effects of climate change on the region. In fact, climate change is considered the prime trigger of ecological phenomena such as raising of the average seasonal temperatures, thawing of the sea ice and dysfunctional patterns of precipitations. As a result, fundamental ecological mechanisms determining the equilibrium and survival of the ecosystem, such as the albedo effect, are affected, producing alterations in the ecosystem’s biodiversity and physical composition. Therefore, this thesis will focus on the causal relationship that links climate change with both ecological changes and geopolitical and economic opportunities. First, I will analyze this region from an ecological perspective, thus I will define the Arctic as an ecosystem, which means a systemic unit in the planetary environmental system of ecological mechanisms. Through the theory of tipping points, I will demonstrate the crucial role played by the stability of this region in the determination of planetary wind and oceanic currencies. Then I will focus my attention on the great availability of natural and energy resources in the region. I will consider Canada and the Canadian North as a case study to understand the importance of the Arctic physical composition in the determination of domestic and foreign policies. In fact, the increasing global demand for energy resources and the potential opening of a faster and larger international shipping route compared to the Panama Canal make the Arctic at the centre of global economic policies. For this reason, Canada is trying to obtain a globally recognized leading position in the research about the effects of climate change in the region and internationally recognized sovereign borders in the North. Finally, after having understood and described the region’s ecological vulnerabilities and the main Canadian interests in the North, I will develop a customized model of sustainable policy making for the region. I will ground my model on the theories of sustainability science and geoeconomics. I will achieve a deep understanding of the major Canadian economic objectives, describing them in sustainable terms, which means that I will define the set of parameters, such as public investments, necessary to make an economic policy as much ‘environmentally harmless’ as possible. My objective is determining a new Canadian model of sustainable policymaking, aimed at the protection and development of the North. i Table of Contents 1. THE ARCTIC AND CLIMATE CHANGE Introduction ......................................................................................................................................1 1. Introduction: The Arctic region ................................................................................................6 1.1 Canada and the Arctic .............................................................................................................8 2. Climate change in the Arctic ................................................................................................. 11 3. Climate change tipping points ............................................................................................... 15 3.1 The Arctic ecosystem as a tipping point .............................................................................. 17 3.2 Albedo effect: reflectivity and positive climatic feedback .................................................. 19 3.3 Did we pass the tipping point in the Arctic? ........................................................................ 22 3.4 Addressing climate change: Mitigation and Adaptation policies ........................................ 24 4. Canada’s environmental policy in the Arctic ........................................................................ 29 4.1 Climate change and Canada’s policy compatibility ............................................................ 32 2. GEOPOLITICS AND CLIMATE CHANGE 1. Introduction: the Arctic potentialities .................................................................................... 35 2. Geopolitics of the Arctic: Polar Geopolitics and the importance of sovereignty and security in the Arctic ................................................................................................................................... 36 2.1 Canada’s Arctic sovereignty ................................................................................................ 40 2.2.1 Sovereignty and environmental protection ................................................................... 43 2.2.2 Sovereignty and the military ......................................................................................... 46 1.2.3 Canada’s Arctic Security .................................................................................................. 47 1.2.4 Security and international cooperation: the Arctic Council and the Ilulissat Declaration ............................................................................................................................. 51 2.3 Is Polar Geopolitics efficacious? ......................................................................................... 56 3. THE ANTHROPOCENTRIC ARCTIC: SUSTAINABILITY AND GEOECONOMICS 1. Introduction: Sustainability ................................................................................................... 60 1.1 How is sustainability measured? Are there precise indicators? ........................................... 63 2. Ecological Considerations on Sustainability in the Arctic Region ........................................ 68 2.1 Vulnerability ........................................................................................................................ 68 2.1.1 Is the Arctic a vulnerable ecosystem? ........................................................................... 72 2.2 Resilience ............................................................................................................................. 74 2.2.1 Is the Arctic a resilient ecosystem?............................................................................... 77 ii 3. Geopolitical Considerations on Sustainability in the Arctic Region ..................................... 79 3.1 Sustainable Development .................................................................................................... 79 3.1.1 Is the Arctic ecosystem sustainably developed? ........................................................... 82 4. Environmental Security and Geoeconomics: A New Definition of Sustainability in the Anthropocentric Arctic? ................................................................................................................ 84 4. THE ARCTIC DURING PRIME MINISTER TRUDEAU'S ADMINISTRATION 1. Introduction: A change in the Canadian Administration ....................................................... 93 2. From Prime Minister Harper to Prime Minister Trudeau: similarities and differences of the 21st century Arctic policies ............................................................................................................ 95 3. Trudeau and the Arctic: domestic policy and foreign policy ................................................ 99 3.1 Domestic policy ................................................................................................................. 101 3.2 Foreign policy: The United States and Russia ................................................................... 102 4. Is Trudeau’s Arctic policy sustainable? ............................................................................... 106 4.1 Domestic Policy ................................................................................................................. 107 4.2 Foreign Policy .................................................................................................................... 109 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................. 115 BIBLIOGRAPHY ....................................................................................................................... 123 iii Acknowledgments I would like to say some words to thank the people that helped me in the realization of this incredible work. First and foremost, thanks go to my supervisor, Dr. Heather Eaton, who inspired, supported and helped me through these two years of Master’s. Then, a special thank go to Shannon, Adrienne, Joelle and Reyna, who supported me in the hardest moments and were always there when I needed them. Without all of you these two years would have be very different, I am grateful for having met all of you. You became like a second family for