52nd Annual New Mexico Water Conference Beyond the Year of Water: Living within Our Water Limitations November 29 – 30, 2007 Santa Fe La Fonda New Mexico Water Resources Research Institute TABLE OF CONTENTS Water Conference Advisory Committee........................................................................................ iv Conference Program ........................................................................................................................v Welcoming Remarks, Santa Fe Mayor David Coss.........................................................................1 USGS Water Programs and Initiatives Robert M. Hirsch, Associate Director for Water, U.S. Geological Survey .....................................5 Keynote Address: What Happens after “The Year of Water”? New Mexico Lt. Gov. Diane Denish .............................................................................................13 Competing for the Future – We Need a Different Model John D’Antonio, NM State Engineer.............................................................................................19 Preview of Legislative Water Issues 2008 NM Representative Andy Nuñez, Chair, Committee on Agriculture and Water Resources.........31 Implications of a Growing Population and Changing Demographics in New Mexico Adélamar Alcántara, Bureau of Business and Economic Research, UNM ...................................37 Market Prices as Measures of Water Scarcity in New Mexico and the West F. Lee Brown, H2O Economics.....................................................................................................49 A Living River Fund John Horning, Forest Guardians ....................................................................................................55 Climate Change and Its Implications for New Mexico’s Water Resources and Economic Opportunities Julie Coonrod, UNM......................................................................................................................59 Panel Discussion: The Federal Perspective and Initiatives on Water............................................93 Moderated by Karl Wood, WRRI Director Mike Connor for Senator Jeff Bingaman Zane Vaughn for Senator Pete Domenici Ron Morsbach for Congressman Steve Pearce Johanna Polsenberg for Congressman Tom Udall Tito Madrid for Congresswoman Heather Wilson Climate Research and Applications Needs in Support of Climate Services Roger Pulwarty, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.........................................105 Governor’s Task Force Report on Climate Change David Gutzler, University of New Mexico..................................................................................111 ii Western Agriculture at Risk from Climate Change and Competing Water Demands Pat O’Toole, Family Farm Alliance.............................................................................................121 What to Do with Water Left Over after Needs are Met? Bob Grant, Grant Enterprises, Inc................................................................................................127 Future Climate Change Impacts on New Mexico’s Mountain Sources of Water Albert Rango, USDA-ARS-Jornada Experimental Range, NMSU.............................................133 Water Productivity and Water Capital – Addressing Fresh Water Availability Challenges Mike Hightower, Sandia National Laboratories ..........................................................................145 Participant List.............................................................................................................................151 iii Water Conference Advisory Committee and Representatives Cecilia Abeyta, Farm Bureau Hilary Brinegar, New Mexico Department of Agriculture Brent Bullock, Pecos Valley Artesian Conservancy District Wayne Cunningham, Quay County John D’Antonio, Office of the State Engineer Gary L. Esslinger, Elephant Butte Irrigation District Lt. Col. Bruce Estok, Army Corps of Engineers Susan Fry Martin, Los Alamos National Laboratory Chris Gorbach, Bureau of Reclamation John Hawley, Hawley Geomatters Matt Holmes, New Mexico Rural Water Association Marcy Leavitt, New Mexico Environment Department Fidel Lorenzo, Acoma Pueblo Julie Maitland, New Mexico Department of Agriculture Nathan Myers, US Geological Survey Craig Runyan, New Mexico State University Blane Sanchez, Interstate Stream Commission John Shomaker, Shomaker and Associates John Stomp, Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority Bruce Thomson, University of New Mexico John C. Tysseling, e3c, Inc. Enrique Vivoni, New Mexico Tech Ann Watkins, Office of the State Engineer Linda Weiss, US Geological Survey Mark Yuska, Army Corps of Engineers iv 52nd Annual New Mexico Water Conference Beyond the Year of Water: Living within Our Water Limitations Santa Fe La Fonda Thursday Morning, November 29, 2007 8:30 Welcome and Opening Remarks Director Karl Wood, Water Resources Research Institute Santa Fe Mayor David Coss 9:00 USGS Water Programs and Initiatives Robert M. Hirsch, Associate Director for Water, U.S. Geological Survey 9:30 Keynote Address: What Happens after “The Year of Water”? New Mexico Lt. Gov. Diane Denish 10:00 Break 10:30 Competing for the Future - We Need a Different Model John D’Antonio, NM State Engineer 11:00 New Mexico Indian Water Rights Settlements and Their Economic Impact on Tribes and Pueblos Chairman Joe Garcia, All Indian Pueblo Council (cancelled) 11:30 Preview of Legislative Water Issues 2008 New Mexico Representative Andy Nuñez, Chair, Committee on Agriculture and Water Resources 12:00 Lunch on Your Own Thursday Afternoon, November 29, 2007 1:30 Implications of a Growing Population and Changing Demographics in New Mexico Adélamar Alcántara, Bureau of Business and Economic Research, University of New Mexico 2:00 Market Prices as Measures of Water Scarcity in New Mexico and the West F. Lee Brown, H2O Economics 2:30 A Living River Fund John Horning, Forest Guardians 3:00 Break v 3:30 Climate Change and Its Implications for New Mexico’s Water Resources and Economic Opportunities Julie Coonrod, University of New Mexico 4:00 Panel Discussion: The Federal Perspective and Initiatives on Water Moderated by Karl Wood, WRRI Director Mike Connor for Senator Jeff Bingaman Zane Vaughn for Senator Pete Domenici Ron Morsbach for Congressman Steve Pearce Johanna Polsenberg for Congressman Tom Udall Tito Madrid for Congresswoman Heather Wilson 5:00 Reception hosted by Daniel B. Stephens & Associates La Terraza 6:30 Dinner Banquet - Ballroom Doc Warner, Doc Warner’s Alaska Fishing Adventures Friday Morning, November 30, 2007 8:30 Climate Research and Applications Needs in Support of Climate Services Roger Pulwarty, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 9:00 Governor’s Task Force Report on Climate Change David Gutzler, University of New Mexico 9:30 Western Agriculture at Risk from Climate Change and Competing Water Demands Pat O’Toole, Family Farm Alliance 10:00 Break 10:30 What to Do with Water Left Over after Needs are Met? Bob Grant, Grant Enterprises, Inc. 11:00 Future Climate Change Impacts on New Mexico’s Mountain Sources of Water Albert Rango, USDA-ARS-Jornada Experimental Range, New Mexico State University 11:30 Water Productivity and Water Capital – Addressing Fresh Water Availability Limitations Mike Hightower, Sandia National Laboratories 12:00 Adjourn vi Welcoming Remarks BEYOND THE YEAR OF WATER: LIVING WITHIN OUR WATER LIMITATIONS NOVEMBER NEW MEXICO WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH INSTITUTE 2007 David Coss was elected Mayor of Santa Fe in 2006. Among the Mayor’s priorities is protecting Santa Fe’s water and environment. This includes continuing to work with Santa Fe County to make the Buckman water project a reality, implementing smart growth policies that link water and growth, further developing water conservation initiatives, supporting local conservation design businesses, adopting aggressive green building standards, promoting alternative transportation, and supporting the Kyoto Protocols regarding climate change. Additionally, the Santa Fe River, which has shaped the region’s history and drawn various cultures to reside here, is currently in a state of disrepair. David will continue to work to create a healthy Santa Fe River watershed connected by systems of trails and parks throughout the entire city. David grew up in Santa Fe and holds a B.S. in wildlife science from New Mexico State University and an M.S. degree in zoology from Southern Illinois University. After completing his master’s degree, David worked as a surface water scientist for the State of New Mexico. During this time, he became active in his union and worked to create in creating the Santa Fe River Masterplan and the New Mexico Environment Department and worked on the river restoration between St. Francis became director of the Environmental Protection Drive and Camino Alire. After working as city Division within NMED. In 1995, David became manager in 1996, David completed his public Director of Public Works for the City of Santa Fe, service career at the State Land Office where he where his dedication to restoring the Santa Fe River continued his work in environmental protection and formalized. During that time, he was instrumental natural resource management. WELCOMING REMARKS Santa Fe Mayor David Coss City of Santa Fe 200 Lincoln Ave. Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501 I see the screen up there, and I was thinking only Quality Control Commission for a long time, which in Santa Fe would everybody be facing