Potential Fishing Impacts and Natural Resource Damages from Worst-Case Discharges of Oil on the Columbia River Report in the Matter of Application No. 2013-01 Vancouver Energy Distribution Terminal EFSEC Case Number 15-001 Submitted to: Matthew Kernutt, Assistant Attorney General Washington Attorney General’s Office P.O. Box 40100 Olympia, WA 98504-0100 Submitted by: Abt Associates Inc. 1881 Ninth Street, Suite 201 Boulder, CO 80302 303.381.8000 Bear Peak Economics 623 Maxwell Ave Boulder, CO 80304 Contacts: Jamie Holmes, MS Eric English, PhD Connie Travers, MS Jeffrey Morris, PhD Karen Dean, PhD May 12, 2016 14153 Ex1503-000001-ENV Table of Contents Contents List of Acronyms and Abbreviations .......................................................................... iii Executive Summary ...................................................................................................S-1 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1 Scope of the Report .............................................................................................. 1-1 1.2 Report Organization ............................................................................................. 1-3 References ........................................................................................................................ 1-4 2. Worst-Case Discharge Scenarios .................................................................. 2-1 2.1 MobilOil Spill of 1984 ......................................................................................... 2-1 2.2 WCD from a Tanker Grounding in the LCR near Vancouver ............................. 2-3 2.2.1 Physical Properties of Bakken Crude ...................................................... 2-3 2.2.2 Weathering of Bakken Crude ................................................................... 2-3 2.2.3 Effective WCD......................................................................................... 2-5 2.2.4 Oil Fate and Transport ............................................................................. 2-6 2.3 WCD from Train Derailment into Columbia River Upstream of Bonneville Dam ................................................................................................. 2-14 2.3.1 Fate and Transport ................................................................................. 2-15 References ...................................................................................................................... 2-17 3. Impacts to Commercial and Recreational Fishing ........................................ 3-1 3.1 Commercial Fishing ............................................................................................. 3-1 3.1.1 Baseline Activity ...................................................................................... 3-2 3.1.2 Period of Impact ....................................................................................... 3-2 3.1.3 Economic Losses for Commercial Fishing .............................................. 3-4 3.2 Recreation Fishing ............................................................................................... 3-4 3.2.1 Baseline Activity ...................................................................................... 3-5 3.2.2 Period of Impact ....................................................................................... 3-6 3.2.3 Economic Losses for Recreational Fishing .............................................. 3-7 3.3 Conclusions .......................................................................................................... 3-7 References ........................................................................................................................ 3-8 Appendix A. Summary of Impacts to Recreational and Commercial Fishing from Past Oil Spills ................................................................... 3-10 Appendix References ......................................................................................... 3-13 4. Natural Resource Damages in Lower Columbia River ................................. 4-1 4.1 NRDA Methods ................................................................................................... 4-1 4.2 Natural Resource Exposure .................................................................................. 4-3 4.2.1 Fish ........................................................................................................... 4-3 4.2.2 Birds ......................................................................................................... 4-6 4.2.3 Pinnipeds .................................................................................................. 4-7 Abt Associates Inc. 14153 May 12, 2016 | pg i Ex1503-000002-ENV Table of Contents 4.3 Natural Resource Injuries .................................................................................... 4-8 4.3.1 Early-Life-Stage Fish ............................................................................... 4-8 4.3.2 Adult Anadromous Fish ........................................................................... 4-8 4.3.3 Birds ......................................................................................................... 4-9 4.4 Injury Quantification .......................................................................................... 4-11 4.4.1 Fish ......................................................................................................... 4-11 4.4.2 Birds ....................................................................................................... 4-12 4.4.3 Pinnipeds ................................................................................................ 4-15 4.5 Damage Determination ...................................................................................... 4-15 4.5.1 Washington State Oil Spill NRDA [WAC 173-183] ............................. 4-15 4.5.2 Damages from Other Spills .................................................................... 4-16 4.5.3 Value of Lost Adult Salmon Fishery ..................................................... 4-17 4.5.4 Restoration-Based Damages: Columbia River Habitat .......................... 4-17 4.5.5 Restoration-Based Damages: Wildlife Refuges ..................................... 4-21 4.5.6 Summary ................................................................................................ 4-24 References ...................................................................................................................... 4-24 5. Natural Resource Damages from an Upstream Train Derailment ............... 5-1 5.1 Natural Resource Exposure .................................................................................. 5-1 5.1.1 Fish ........................................................................................................... 5-1 5.1.2 Birds ......................................................................................................... 5-4 5.1.3 Pinnipeds .................................................................................................. 5-4 5.2 Natural Resource Injuries .................................................................................... 5-5 5.3 Injury Quantification ............................................................................................ 5-5 5.3.1 Fish ........................................................................................................... 5-5 5.3.2 Birds ......................................................................................................... 5-5 5.3.3 Pinnipeds .................................................................................................. 5-6 5.4 Damage Determination ........................................................................................ 5-7 5.4.1 Washington State Oil Spill NRDA [WAC 173-183] ............................... 5-7 5.4.2 Scaling Damages per Volume Spilled in Other Spills ............................. 5-7 5.4.3 Value of Lost Adult Salmon Fishery ....................................................... 5-7 5.4.4 Restoration-Based Damages: Columbia River Habitat ............................ 5-7 5.4.5 Restoration-Based Damages: Wildlife Refuges ..................................... 5-10 5.4.6 Summary ................................................................................................ 5-12 References ...................................................................................................................... 5-12 Abt Associates Inc. 14153 May 12, 2016 | pg ii Ex1503-000003-ENV List of Acronyms and Abbreviations List of Acronyms and Abbreviations Abt Abt Associates ADIOS2 Automated Data Inquiry for Oil Spills 2 API American Petroleum Institute BTEX benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes DEIS Draft Environmental Impact Statement DEM digital elevation model dilbit diluted bitumen DSAY discounted service acre-year DWH Deepwater Horizon EFSEC Energy Facility Site Evaluation Council ELS early-life-stage GIS geographic information system HEA habitat equivalency analysis LCR lower Columbia River MHHW mean higher high water MLLW mean lower low water NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NRDA natural resource damage assessment NWI National Wetlands Inventory ODFW Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife OPA Oil Pollution Act PAH polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon RDA Resource Damage Assessment REA resource equivalency