LOMBOK BASELINE DEMAND & SUPPLY, MARKET DEMAND FORECASTS, AND INVESTMENT NEEDS MARKET ANALYSIS AND DEMAND ASSESSMENTS TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTEGRATED TOURISM DESTINATIONS ACROSS INDONESIA WORLD BANK SELECTION # 1223583 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS PREPARED BY: FOR: WITH SUPPORT FROM: TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................. iii TABLE OF FIGURES .................................................................................................. vi INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 1 BASELINE DEMAND & SUPPLY ............................................................................... 4 1. DESTINATION CHARACTERISTICS ....................................................................... 5 1.1 GEOGRAPHY....................................................................................................................................... 5 1.2 CLIMATE ............................................................................................................................................... 6 1.3 RESIDENT POPULATION ................................................................................................................ 6 1.4 CULTURE .............................................................................................................................................. 6 2. DESTINATION DEFINITION ..................................................................................... 7 2.1 KEY ATTRACTIONS & TOURISM AREAS IN LOMBOK ........................................................ 7 2.2 CONCLUSIONS ON ATTRACTIONS ....................................................................................... 11 3. VISITOR ARRIVALS & DEMOGRAPHICS .............................................................. 13 3.1 FOREIGN VISITORS ......................................................................................................................... 13 3.2 DOMESTIC VISITORS ..................................................................................................................... 19 3.3 SEASONALITY ................................................................................................................................... 20 3.4 SNAPSHOT OF VISITORS TO MT RINJANI ............................................................................ 21 3.5 TOURISM PROMOTION / DESTINATION MARKETING ................................................... 23 3.6 CONCLUSIONS ON VISITOR ARRIVALS & DEMOGRAPHICS ........................................ 23 4. ACCESSIBILITY HIGHLIGHTS ................................................................................ 25 4.1 EXISTING MODE OF TRAVEL AND VISITOR’S MOVEMENT ........................................... 25 5. HOTEL & LODGING OPTIONS (AMENITIES) ...................................................... 28 5.1 VOLUME OF ROOMS ..................................................................................................................... 28 5.2 PERFORMANCE ESTIMATES ........................................................................................................ 33 5.3 HOTEL FACILITIES IN KEY TOURISM AREAS ........................................................................ 37 5.4 CONCLUSIONS ON EXISTING HOTEL SUPPLY .................................................................. 38 6. SMES: SUPPORTING TOURISM INFRASTRUCTURE (AMENITIES) ................ 39 6.1 INDEPENDENT FOOD & BEVERAGE ........................................................................................ 39 6.2 TRAVEL AGENCIES ......................................................................................................................... 40 6.3 TOURISM SERVICE PROVIDERS .................................................................................................. 42 6.4 CONCLUSIONS ON SMES SUPPORTING TOURISM ACTIVITIES................................... 43 7. INVESTMENT ANALYSIS ......................................................................................... 44 7.1 DIRECT INVESTMENT .................................................................................................................... 44 7.2 ASSET CLASSES & SCALE............................................................................................................... 46 7.3 KEY PLAYERS / INVESTORS .......................................................................................................... 47 7.4 INVESTMENT SENTIMENT: DOMESTIC & FOREIGN INVESTORS .................................. 48 8. SKILLS ASSESSMENT ............................................................................................... 53 8.1 WHAT SKILLS EXIST? ..................................................................................................................... 53 8.2 SKILLS GAPS ....................................................................................................................................... 53 8.3 TRAINING SCHOOLS .................................................................................................................... 53 DESTINATION SWOT & VISION .......................................................................... 56 9. DESTINATION SWOT .............................................................................................. 57 9.1 STRENGTHS....................................................................................................................................... 57 9.2 WEAKNESSES .................................................................................................................................... 57 9.3 OPPORTUNITIES .............................................................................................................................. 57 9.4 THREATS............................................................................................................................................. 58 10. DESTINATION VISION STATEMENT ................................................................ 59 10.1 RECOMMENDED DESTINATION VISION ............................................................................... 60 MARKET DEMAND FORECASTS ........................................................................... 61 11. FUTURE MARKET DEMAND ANALYSIS ........................................................... 62 11.1 INTRODUCTION: METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................... 62 11.2 PRIORITY MARKETS FOR THE DESTINATION ..................................................................... 62 11.3 SCENARIOS ........................................................................................................................................ 65 11.4 BUSINESS AS USUAL SCENARIO ................................................................................................ 65 11.5 BEST CASE SCENARIO ................................................................................................................... 70 11.6 ECONOMIC IMPACT (BUSINESS AS USUAL VS. BEST CASE)........................................... 76 INVESTMENT NEEDS ............................................................................................... 79 12. AMENITIES: KEY RECOMMENDATIONS .......................................................... 80 12.1 FUTURE KEY TOURISM AREAS: KNOWN PIPELINE DEVELOPMENT .......................... 80 12.2 FORECASTING FUTURE SUPPLY NEEDS ................................................................................ 83 13. STAFF REQUIRED & SKILLS NEEDED ............................................................... 85 13.1 ACCOMMODATION STAFF REQUIRED ................................................................................. 85 13.2 ADDITIONAL STAFF REQUIRED ............................................................................................... 85 13.3 ADDITIONAL LOMBOK DESTINATION STAFF REQUIRED ............................................ 86 13.4 CONCLUSIONS ON STAFF VOLUME ...................................................................................... 88 14. TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE BASELINE & NEEDS ................................. 89 BASELINE ........................................................................................................................... 89 14.1 AIR TRANSPORT ............................................................................................................................. 89 14.2 SEA TRANSPORT ............................................................................................................................. 94 14.3 ROAD TRANSPORT ....................................................................................................................... 98 14.4 PUBLIC TRANSPORT, PARA TRANSIT, AND TAXI .......................................................... 104 14.5 CONCLUSIONS ON BASELINE: ADEQUATE FOR CURRENT TOURIST DEMAND 106 TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT NEEDS ....................................... 107 14.6 FUTURE MODE OF TRAVEL ..................................................................................................... 107 14.7 ROAD TRANSPORT NEEDS ..................................................................................................... 108 14.8 AIR TRANSPORT .........................................................................................................................