The Iranian Revolution: Revalidating Crane Brinton's Model of Revolutions for the Operational and Strategic Planner A Monograph by Major James H. Muhl, Jr. Armor School of Advanced Military Studies United States Army Command and General Staff College Fort Leavenworth, Kansas SCHOOL OF ADVANCED MILITARY STUDIES MONOGRAPH APPROVAL Major James A. Muhl, Jr. Title of Monograph: The Iranian Revolution: Revalidating Crane Brinton's Model of Revolutions for the Operational and Strategic Planner Approved by: 0. Monograph Director LtCol Doflglas 0. Hendricks, MA A,4&'.fi.a. /- Director, school of Colonel William H.($anes. PlA. MMAS Advanced Military 5" Studies Director, Graduate Philip J. Brookes, Ph.D. Degree Program Accepted this 1990 ABSTRACT Crane Brinton's analysis of popular revolutions offers the strategic and operational planner a valid model for checking the consistency of ends, ways and means, for campaign plans. As a planning tool, Brinton's model fills a gap in FM 100-20, which all but ignores "popular" revolutions. Futhermore, Brinton's model discusses post-revolt dynamics, another area devoid of good analysis. This monograph revalidates Brinton's 1938 model using the Iranian Revolution as a test case, proving the timelessness of sound thought. Table of Contents Chapters: Page Introduction ........................ 1 Background Theory ............. Description of Brinton's Model of Revolution The Old Regime and Prodromal Signs ..... Iran's Old Regime ............ Types of Revolutionists .......... Revolutionist Types in Iran ....... First Stages of Revolution ......... First Stage of Revolution in Iran .... Rule of the Moderates ........... Rule of the Moderates in Iran ...... Accession of the Extremists ........ Accession of the Extremists in Iran ... Reign of Terror and Virtue ......... Reign of Terror and Virtue in Iran ... Thermidor Stage .............. Thermidor Stage in Iran ......... Implications for Strategists and Operational Planners Appendices : A . Iran: a Case Study of Operational Ways and Means . 40 B . James C . Davies' "J Curve" explained ........ 51 Endnotes .......................... 52 Bibliography ........................ 56 THE IRANIAN REVOLUTION Revalidating Crane Brinton's Model of Revolutions for the Operational and Strategic Planner Introduction The popular revolutions sweeping over Eastern Europe in 1989-90 have been enthusiastically received in the US But brutal backlashes within these revolutions could soon shock the American public, warns historian Daniel Boorstin in a February 1 1990 article about the Eastern Bloc revolts. Boors tin's analysis is based, in large part, upon the observations and caveats of Crane Brinton, who published -The Anatomy -of Revolution in 1938. Brinton postulated a pattern of predictable stages for popular revolutions based'on his "post-mortem" studies of the English, American, French and Russian revolts. According to his model, for example, the fifth revolutionary stage usually entails ruthless oppression, such as seen in the French Reign of Terror or in the Soviet Red Terror of this century. Today's world of rapid political change should compel strategists and operational thinkers to study these stages of revolution and the political ramifications of each. Understanding the course of revolution would provide invaluable guidance to military planners in setting and achieving objectives, were the U.S. called upon for a military response to a revolutionary regime. However, since the 1917 Russian Revolution was Brinton's last test case, is his model still valid? The Iranian Revolution of 1978-79 provides an excellent test case to revalidate Brinton's model for the late twentieth century. Identifying the stages of Iran's revolution potentially extends the data base of Brinton's research to include a non-Western culture. Additionally, the utility of Brinton's model for operational planners can be nominally demonstrated in the case of the Iranian Revolution. Appendix A examines the appropriateness of specific ways and means used by the U.S. to project power toward revolutionary Iran at each stage of its revolution. Background Theory Brinton's model, as well as those of other theorists to be discussed, apply only to I,popular", or democratic, revolutions. The revolutions Brinton case studied were: carried out in the name of freedom for a majority against a privileged minority, and were successful; that is, they resulted in the revolutionists becoming the lega1 government. 2 By contrast, "rightest" revolutions are transfers of power initiated at the top of a social structure by authoritarian or oligarchical interests. Often, these entail coups d'etat in which one general replaces another. Another type of revolution Brinton does not model is the "territorial- nationalist" revolt, a war of liberation from an imperialist or colonial power. Based on social and economic factors, most models of revolution deal primarily with the "why" and not the "how" of revolution. Marx and Engels' socio-economic model posits the social sources of revolt, such as the discontent of deprived elements within a society. They believed the progressive degradation of the working classes would force them into revolt against the capital owning classes. Social conflict would arise even if worker conditions improved but did not keep pace with the 3 capitalists' welfare. Marx also asserted, and more accurately as Brinton's case studies bear out, that the failed expectations of a population at large can ignite a revolution. James C. Davies elaborated on Marx's "failed expectations" theme in his J Curve economic model Revolutions are most likely to occur when a prolonged period of objective economic and social development is followed by a short period of sharp reversal. People then subjectively fear that ground gained with great effort will be quite lost; their mood becomes revolutionary.4 But while Davies' model adequately explains the roots of revolt in the French, Russian, English and even Iranian revolutions, it does not account for actions occurring after the overthrow of the old regimes. For a further explanation of Davies' J curve, see Appendix B. Both Marx and Davies have given us good strategic- political concepts for anticipating revolts. However, their models are of marginal utility to the operational planner once an initial revolt is successful. What has been needed is a comprehensive theory of revolution that embraces more than the progression of causes and events leading up to revolt, as is normally given in low intensity conflict (LIC) and foreign internal development (FID) environment assessments. By identifying patterns and sequencing throughout a revolution, Brinton's work could give the military planner better insight into post revolt stages. Description of Brinton's Model of Revolution Brinton acknowledges that the social sciences are not exact sciences, since they depend more on observation than on clinical experimentation. This makes the use of a conceptual scheme essential to any study of revolutions. Brinton borrows an extended metaphor from pathology when he compares the stages of revolution to the course of a fever. According to Brinton, there are early "prodromal signs", or preconditions, in evidence in an old regime before the "fever" of revolution breaks out. Full-blown fever symptoms represent the rage of revolt, such as recently seen in Eastern Europe. After feverish advances and retreat, a crisis usually occurs. In the delirium of this stage, the most violent revolutionists ruie during what is known as the as the Reign of Terror. Once the fever "breaks", the convalescence, or Thermidor stage, may include a relapse or two. Finally, the fever is completely gone during the restoration period. The patient/ nation remains immunized for awhile and is, in fact, strenthened from the ordeal. But a post-revolution country has experienced wrenching 5 change and is never restored to its former "self". In Brinton's studies, only the American Revolution does not adhere to Brinton's fever analogy, since the moderates were able to maintain power throughout the fever "crisis" period. The American Revolution was less radicalized because it was not animated by class conflict. Fueled by ideology and aspects of national liberation, our "popular" revolution may have been more of a "territorial- national" revolt. The English, French and Russian revolutions closely follow Brinton's stages of revolution1 fever. Although a11 three began with hopes of high ideals and moderation, each succumbed to a Reign of Terror, or delirium, and ended in dictatorship, or the convalescence. Their revolutions were class and ideology based, similar to Iran's and, perhaps, to the recent revolts in Eastern Europe. The Old Regime and Prodromal Signs In medical parlance, Brinton has diagnosed the warning symptoms indicating the onset of disease, or, in this case, impending revolution. These "prodromes" are the preconditions and seeds of revolt that either must be addressed by the old regime to maintain power or by a new regime to retain newly gained power. In the countries he studied, Brinton found a structural weakness along political and economic lines which the "failed expectations" theories of Marx and Davies predict. In each of Brinton's case studies, the societies were economically advancing. The revolutionary movements were not comprised of unprosperous people who experienced severe deprivation and oppression. Rather, economic "want" superseded I,need" in fomenting unrest. The chief enterprising groups perceived