State-of-the-art in Risk Mapping State-of-the-art in Risk Mapping Commissioned Review Foresight, Government Office for Science State-of-the-art in Risk Mapping Contents 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 5 Definition .............................................................................................................................................. 5 Scope ................................................................................................................................................... 5 Purpose ............................................................................................................................................... 5 Approach ............................................................................................................................................. 5 Limitations ............................................................................................................................................ 6 2. Risk Modelling and Mapping .............................................................................................................. 7 2.1 Catastrophe loss models ................................................................................................................... 7 2.2 Data inputs ......................................................................................................................................... 8 2.3 Available models .............................................................................................................................. 10 3. Hazard Modelling and Mapping ........................................................................................................ 11 3.1 Hazard Mapping and Long-term Forecasting .................................................................................. 11 Hazard mapping ................................................................................................................................ 11 Long-term Forecasting ....................................................................................................................... 12 3.2 Monitoring and Short-term Forecasting ........................................................................................... 13 Monitoring .......................................................................................................................................... 13 Short-term Forecasting ...................................................................................................................... 13 3.3 A note on purpose............................................................................................................................ 14 4. Geospatial Mapping .......................................................................................................................... 16 5. Future trends, gaps and requirements ............................................................................................ 19 5.1 Data quality ...................................................................................................................................... 19 5.2 Community-based solutions ............................................................................................................. 20 5.3 Computing........................................................................................................................................ 22 5.4 Modelling ......................................................................................................................................... 23 State-of-the-art in Risk Mapping 5.5 Education and communication ......................................................................................................... 24 6. The future of risk modelling and mapping ...................................................................................... 26 6.1 What business are we in? ................................................................................................................ 26 6.2 SWOT analysis ................................................................................................................................ 26 6.3 Temporal PESTEL analysis ............................................................................................................. 27 6.3.1 Five years (2017) .......................................................................................................................... 28 6.3.2 Ten years (2022)....................................................................................................................... 30 6.3.3 Twenty five years (2037) ........................................................................................................... 31 6.3.3 Fifty years (2062) ...................................................................................................................... 32 7. Recommendations ............................................................................................................................ 33 References ............................................................................................................................................. 34 APPENDIX 1. TYPOLOGY OF APPROACHES TO RISK MAPPING ................................................... 40 THE CORE FUNCTIONAL TYPES OF RISK MAPS ............................................................................. 40 MAP AND DATA SCALE/COVERAGE (MAP LEVEL) .......................................................................... 40 MAP PURPOSE/FUNCTION ................................................................................................................. 41 APPENDIX 2. TECHNOLOGY FUTURES .............................................................................................. 43 REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................................... 45 APPENDIX 3. FLOOD FUTURES ........................................................................................................... 46 BACKGROUND ..................................................................................................................................... 46 CASE STUDY: FLOODING ................................................................................................................... 46 IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE ..................................................................................................... 47 CASE STUDY: Global Multiple Hazard and Risk mapping .................................................................... 49 Case Study Overview ............................................................................................................................ 49 Global Hazard and Risk Map Characteristics ........................................................................................ 49 World Map of Natural Hazards ........................................................................................................... 49 1 State-of-the-art in Risk Mapping Disaster Risk Index ................................................................................................................................ 50 Hotspots Report ..................................................................................................................................... 51 World Risk Index .................................................................................................................................... 53 Comparison of Risk Methodology .......................................................................................................... 54 Objectives .............................................................................................................................................. 55 Stakeholders .......................................................................................................................................... 55 Review of Hazard Map Impact ............................................................................................................... 56 Evaluation .............................................................................................................................................. 56 Constraints/Challenges .......................................................................................................................... 57 Lessons Learned ................................................................................................................................... 58 References............................................................................................................................................. 58 CASE STUDY: Flood Hazard Mapping in the Environment Agency ...................................................... 59 Case Study Overview ............................................................................................................................ 59 EA Hazard Map...................................................................................................................................... 61 Recent EA Mapping ............................................................................................................................... 64 EA Hazard Map Users ..........................................................................................................................