DRAFT AIR QUALITY CONFORMITY AND CONSISTENCY REPORT JULY 2021 PBA2050 COMMISH BOARD DRAFT 06.14.21 Metropolitan Transportation Association of City Representatives Commission Bay Area Governments Susan Adams Alfredo Pedroza, Chair Jesse Arreguín, President Councilmember, City of Rohnert Park Napa County and Cities Mayor, City of Berkeley Nikki Fortunato Bas Nick Josefowitz, Vice Chair Belia Ramos, Vice President Councilmember, City of Oakland San Francisco Mayor's Appointee Supervisor, County of Napa London Breed Margaret Abe-Koga David Rabbitt, Mayor, City and County of San Francisco Cities of Santa Clara County Immediate Past President Tom Butt Supervisor, County of Sonoma Eddie H. Ahn Mayor, City of Richmond San Francisco Bay Conservation Pat Eklund and Development Commission County Representatives Mayor, City of Novato David Canepa Candace Andersen Maya Esparza San Mateo County Supervisor, County of Contra Costa Councilmember, City of San José Cindy Chavez David Canepa Carroll Fife Santa Clara County Supervisor, County of San Mateo Councilmember, City of Oakland Damon Connolly Keith Carson Neysa Fligor Marin County and Cities Supervisor, County of Alameda Mayor, City of Los Altos Carol Dutra-Vernaci Cindy Chavez Leon Garcia Cities of Alameda County Supervisor, County of Santa Clara Mayor, City of American Canyon Dina El-Tawansy Otto Lee Liz Gibbons California State Transportation Agency Supervisor, County of Santa Clara Mayor, City of Campbell (CalSTA) Gordon Mar Giselle Hale Victoria Fleming Supervisor, City and County Vice Mayor, City of Redwood City Sonoma County and Cities of San Francisco Barbara Halliday Dorene M. Giacopini Rafael Mandelman Mayor, City of Hayward U.S. Department of Transportation Supervisor, City and County Rich Hillis Federal D. Glover of San Francisco Planning Director, City and Contra Costa County Nate Miley County of San Francisco Sam Liccardo Supervisor, County of Alameda Dave Hudson San José Mayor's Appointee Karen Mitchoff Mayor, City of San Ramon Nate Miley Supervisor, County of Contra Costa Matthew Mahan Alameda County Stephanie Moulton-Peters Councilmember, City of San José Gina Papan Supervisor, County of Marin Raul Peralez Cities of San Mateo County James P. Spering Councilmember, City of San José David Rabbitt Supervisor, County of Solano Carlos Romero Association of Bay Area Governments Vacant Mayor, City of East Palo Alto Hillary Ronen County of San Mateo Loren Taylor City and County of San Francisco Councilmember, City of Oakland Libby Schaaf Lori Wilson Oakland Mayor's Appointee Mayor, City of Suisun City James P. Spering Vacant Solano County and Cities City and County of San Francisco Amy R. Worth (Mayor's Appointee) Cities of Contra Costa County Advisory Member Vacant Jayne Battey U.S. Department of Housing Board Member, San Francisco Bay and Urban Development Regional Water Quality Control Board i Association of Bay Area Governments 375 Beale Street, Suite 700 San Francisco, CA 94105-2066 www.abag.ca.gov | 415.820.7900 Metropolitan Transportation Commission 375 Beale Street, Suite 800 San Francisco, CA 94105-2066 www.mtc.ca.gov | 415.778.6700 Draft Plan Bay Area 2050: Air Quality Conformity and Consistency Report Project Staff Dave Vautin Plan Bay Area 2050 Project Manager Harold Brazil Transportation-Air Quality Conformity Analysis Project Manager Adam Noelting Regional Planning Program Transportation-Air Quality Conformity Analysis Report Contributor Acknowledgements Author Harold Brazil Cover Design Miguel Osorio Editor Terry Lee Table of Contents Chapter 1: Introduction ........................................................................ 1 Purpose of Conformity Analysis ............................................................... 1 Air Pollution and Human Health ............................................................... 4 Emissions ............................................................................................... 4 Ambient Concentrations ............................................................................. 5 Population Exposure .................................................................................. 5 Dosage .................................................................................................. 5 Health Effects ......................................................................................... 5 Status of Regional Transportation Plan ...................................................... 5 Status of Transportation Improvement Program ............................................ 6 Chapter 2: Bay Area Air Pollutant Designations ........................................... 8 Background ....................................................................................... 8 National 1-Hour Ozone Standard .............................................................. 8 National 8-Hour Ozone Standard .............................................................. 9 National PM2.5 Standard ...................................................................... 10 National 8-Hour Carbon Monoxide Standard ............................................... 11 Approved Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets and Conformity Tests ..................... 11 Chapter 3: Conformity Analysis & Results ................................................. 14 Approach to Conformity Analysis ........................................................... 14 Analysis Years .................................................................................. 15 Consultation Process .......................................................................... 16 June 2020 ............................................................................................. 16 January 2021 .......................................................................................... 16 February 2021 ........................................................................................ 16 May 2021 .............................................................................................. 16 July 2021 .............................................................................................. 17 September 2021 ...................................................................................... 17 Comparison of Motor Vehicle Emissions to Budgets ...................................... 17 Ozone Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets ........................................................... 17 Comparison of Estimated Regional On-Road Motor Vehicle Emissions to the Ozone Precursor Budgets ............................................................................. 18 Senate Bill 1 (SB 1)................................................................................... 18 Advanced Clean Cars (ACC) ......................................................................... 19 Draft Plan Bay Area 205 0 Page | i Baseline Year Emissions Test for PM2.5 ..................................................... 21 Chapter 4: Transportation Control Measures .............................................. 24 History of Transportation Control Measures ............................................... 24 Status of Transportation Control Measures ................................................ 25 Chapter 5: Response to Public Comments ................................................. 28 Chapter 6: Conformity Findings .............................................................. 29 Appendix A. List of Regionally Significant Projects in Plan Bay Area 2050 .......... 30 Appendix B. List of Projects in the 2021 Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) ............................................................................................... 42 Appendix C. Draft Plan Bay Area 2050: Forecasting and Modeling Report .......... 93 Appendix D. List of Transportation Control Measures (TCM) Projects .............. 240 Appendix E. Methodology for Bay Area Conformity Determinations ................ 259 Appendix F. SAFE Vehicle Rule Part 1: EMFAC Adjustment Factor Methodology and Correspondence ............................................................................... 272 Appendix G. Glossary ........................................................................ 288 Air Quality Conformity and Consistency Report Page | ii List of Tables Table 1: VOC and NOX Emissions Budgets from 2001 Ozone Attainment Plan (tons/day) ....... 17 Table 2: Vehicle Activity Forecasts ..................................................................... 18 Table 3: Emissions Budget Comparisons for Ozone Precursors – Summertime Conditions (tons/day) .................................................................................................. 19 Table 4: Emission Reductions for Transportation Control Measures A – E in State Implementation Plan (tons/day) ........................................................................ 21 Table 5: Vehicle Activity Forecasts for the PM2.5 Baseline Year Test .............................. 21 1 Table 6: Emissions Comparison for the PM2.5 Baseline Year Test .................................. 22 Table 7: Transportation Control Measure in the State Implementation Plan ..................... 25 Table 8: Implementation Status of Federal Transportation Control Measures for Ozone (A – E) ............................................................................................................... 26 Draft Plan Bay Area 205 0 Page | iii List of Figures Figure 1: Map of the Non-Attainment Area for the San Francisco Bay Area ....................... 3 Figure 2: Relationship Between Air Pollution