Acknowledgments This study was conducted for the AASHTO Standing Committee on Planning, with funding provided through the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Project 08-36, Research for the AASHTO Standing Committee on Planning. The NCHRP is supported by annual voluntary contributions from the state Departments of Transportation. Project 08-36 is intended to fund quick response studies on behalf of the Standing Committee on Planning. The report was prepared by Uri Avin of the National Center for Smart Growth (NCSG), University of Maryland, with Christopher Porter and David von Stroh of Cambridge Systematics, Eli Knaap of the NCSG, and Paul Patnode, NCSG Affiliate. The work was guided by a technical working group that included: Robert Balmes, Michigan Department of Transportation, Chair; William Cesanek, CDM Smith; Robert Deaton, North Carolina Department of Transportation; Thomas Evans; Kristen Keener-Busby, Urban Lands Institute, Arizona; Amanda Pietz, Oregon Department of Transportation; Elizabeth Robbins, Washington State Department of Transportation; Nicolas Garcia, Liaison, Federal Transit Administration; and Fred Bowen, Liaison, Federal Highway Administration. The project was managed by Lori L. Sundstrom, NCHRP Senior Program Officer. Disclaimer The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied are those of the research agency that performed the research and are not necessarily those of the Transportation Research Board or its sponsoring agencies. This report has not been reviewed or accepted by the Transportation Research Board Executive Committee or the Governing Board of the National Research Council. Sketch Tools for Regional Sustainability Scenario Planning Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................. ES-1 Objectives ........................................................................................................... ES-1 Background and Scope ..................................................................................... ES-1 Contents and Analysis ..................................................................................... ES-2 Suggestions for Further Research and Development .................................. ES-3 1.0 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1 Report Objectives ........................................................................................ 1-1 1.2 Background .................................................................................................. 1-1 1.3 Definitions ................................................................................................... 1-3 1.4 Organization of the Report ........................................................................ 1-4 2.0 Overview of Research Activities ...................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Literature Review ....................................................................................... 2-1 2.2 Survey ........................................................................................................... 2-2 2.3 Case Studies ................................................................................................. 2-2 2.4 Evaluation of the Tools .............................................................................. 2-5 2.5 Guidance on Approaches and Tools ........................................................ 2-6 2.6 Suggestions for Further Research and Development ............................ 2-6 3.0 Overview of Scenario Sketch Planning Tools ............................................... 3-1 3.1 Scenario Typologies and Processes .......................................................... 3-1 3.2 Definitions ................................................................................................... 3-4 3.3 Evolution of Scenario Sketch Tools .......................................................... 3-5 3.4 Tools in Use ................................................................................................. 3-6 4.0 Evaluation of the Tools ...................................................................................... 4-1 4.1 Evaluation Framework .............................................................................. 4-1 4.2 Summary Evaluation .................................................................................. 4-1 4.3 Tool Trends ................................................................................................ 4-10 5.0 Guidance on Approaches and Tools ............................................................... 5-1 5.1 Alternatives to Scenario Sketch Planning Tools ..................................... 5-1 5.2 Fitting the Tool to the Planning Approach ........................................... 5-11 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. i 008551.117 Table of Contents, continued 6.0 Suggestions for Further Research and Development .................................. 6-1 6.1 The Future of Scenario Sketch Tools ........................................................ 6-1 6.2 Future Scenarios for Regional Sketch Tools ............................................ 6-2 6.3 Suggestions for Further Research and Development ............................ 6-4 A. Literature Review ............................................................................................... A-1 A.1 Introduction ................................................................................................ A-1 A.2 Overview of Scenario Planning ............................................................... A-1 A.3 Definitions and Key Questions ................................................................ A-6 A.4 Review of Reviews .................................................................................. A-17 A.5 References ................................................................................................. A-44 B. Survey Results .................................................................................................... B-1 C. Case Studies ........................................................................................................ C-1 C.1 Introduction ................................................................................................ C-1 C.2 CommunityViz: Charlotte ....................................................................... C-4 C.3 CommunityViz: Boston.......................................................................... C-16 C.4 CommunityViz: Holland, Michigan .................................................... C-27 C.5 Urban Footprint: Sacramento ................................................................ C-35 C.6 Urban Footprint: San Diego .................................................................. C-43 C.7 Envision Tomorrow: Salt Lake County ............................................... C-50 C.8 Envision Tomorrow: Austin .................................................................. C-59 D. Comparative Tools Descriptive/Evaluative Matrix .....................................D-1 E. Description of Tools .......................................................................................... E-1 E.1 CommunityViz ........................................................................................... E-1 E.2 Envision Tomorrow Plus .......................................................................... E-3 E.3 i-PLACE3S .................................................................................................. E-5 E.4 SPARC/INDEX .......................................................................................... E-7 E.5 UPlan ........................................................................................................... E-9 E.6 UrbanFootprint ........................................................................................ E-12 ii Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 008551.117 Sketch Tools for Regional Sustainability Scenario Planning List of Tables Table 2.1 Comparative Features of the Case Studies ........................................... 2-4 Table 3.1 Summary of Tools and Their Capabilities ............................................ 3-8 Table 4.1 Summary Assessment Matrix of Tools ................................................. 4-2 Table 6.1 Future Scenarios for the Short-Term Evolution of Sketch Tools: Primary Drivers ........................................................................................ 6-3 Table A.1 Standard Scenario Indicators and their Derivation ............................ A-3 Table A.2 Technical Expertise Needed to Use Modela ...................................... A-21 Table A.3 Sketch Planning Tools Comparison.................................................... A-32 Table B.1 Tool(s) Used by Respondent.................................................................. B-2 Table B.2 Last Time Tool was Used ....................................................................... B-3 Table B.3 Scale of Application ................................................................................ B-3 Table B.4 Settings Where Tool Used ...................................................................... B-4 Table B.5 Indicators of Primary Interest ............................................................... B-4 Table B.6 Did you Modify or Customize the Tool? ............................................. B-4 Table B.7 How Was the Tool Linked to Transportation